CBS Bracketology Update Has Duke, Michigan on the No. 1 Line as Bubble Tightens

CBS Sports’ CBS bracketology projection updated Sunday morning (Mar. 1, 9:09 a.m. ET) has four teams sitting on the No. 1 seed line right now: Duke, Michigan, UConn and Arizona. It also shows a bubble that’s getting tight fast, with TCU, New Mexico, California and VCU listed as the “Last 4 In,” and Auburn, Ohio State, Seton Hall and Indiana listed as the “First 4 Out.”

Why it matters today: we’re into the final stretch before conference tournaments, meaning every résumé game left can swing a seed line, or knock a bubble team off the board entirely. CBS’ own “Team Bracket Index” even lists the next key games for the current No. 1s, so the timing for movement is immediate.

Key Points

• CBS bracketology’s current No. 1 seeds: Duke, Michigan, UConn, Arizona.
• “Last 4 In”: TCU, New Mexico, California, VCU.
• “First 4 Out”: Auburn, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Indiana.

CBS bracketology’s No. 1 seeds right now (and who they’d face)

CBS’ bracket page shows the No. 1 seeds slotted at the top of each region in the first round:

• Duke (East, 1-seed) would draw the East’s 16-seed winner (CBS lists LIU vs. Howard in the First Four for that spot).
• Michigan (Midwest, 1-seed) would open against the Midwest 16-seed winner (UMBC vs. Bethune-Cookman in the First Four).
• UConn (South, 1-seed) is paired with Merrimack on the 16 line.
• Arizona (West, 1-seed) is paired with Tennessee State on the 16 line.

The bubble picture: “Last Four In” vs. “First Four Out”

If you’re scanning CBS bracketology for the teams sweating Selection Sunday, this is the section fans bookmark.

Last Four In (in the field): TCU, New Mexico, California, VCU.

First Four Out (just missing): Auburn, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Indiana.

The practical takeaway: those “Last Four In” teams aren’t just fighting for a better seed, they’re fighting to avoid the wrong side of the cut line. And the “First Four Out” list is basically the waiting room: one bad loss by a bubble team (or one unexpected conference auto-bid steal) can flip that group overnight.

What CBS bracketology is actually using (NET + quadrants + SOS)

CBS’ “Team Bracket Index” spells out the variables powering its snapshot – NET ranking, Quadrant 1-4 records, strength of schedule, and next game – right next to each projected seed.

That’s why bubble discussions tend to turn into shorthand like “Q1 wins” and “bad losses.” Quadrants are how the selection committee groups wins/losses by opponent quality and game location (home/neutral/road). When you’re comparing teams like TCU vs. Auburn or VCU vs. Ohio State, you’re usually comparing résumé quality more than raw record.

Why today’s update could change fast (next games are right there)

CBS’ index lists upcoming dates for the current top line, which is your built-in “why now” hook: Duke’s next game at NC State (Mar. 2), Arizona vs. Iowa State (Mar. 2), Michigan at Iowa (Mar. 5), and UConn at Marquette (Mar. 7) are exactly the kinds of matchups that can cause seed-line shuffles.

In other words, if you’re checking CBS bracketology this morning, you’re doing it at the right time, because the bracket you see now is one big week away from looking different.

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