The Cleveland Cavaliers are once again the favorites to land LeBron James in free agency after a recent change in the prediction market. Polymarket had a major change over the past few days that saw the Miami Heat passing Cleveland as the top LeBron choice. However, today’s shift saw the Cavaliers going back to first place above Miami and the other interested teams.
Polymarket has the following percentages listed for each team, as of July 21, 2026:
Cleveland Cavaliers: 35%
Miami Heat: 32%
Golden State Warriors: 22%
Philadelphia 76ers: 9%
Minnesota Timberwolves: 2%
San Antonio Spurs: 1%
The Cavaliers and Heat appear to be the two strong favorites, especially with more rumors circulating that James wants to play in the Eastern Conference. Both the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder sitting at the top of the Western Conference makes it hard for a LeBron team to reach the finals.
The Golden State Warriors are a distant third as the most realistic West team if James does decide to take the tougher challenge to play with friends Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. However, Cleveland fans should be most excited about this since the Heat’s assumed lead over them has ended in the minds of gamblers.
Other Teams Have Almost No Chance At LeBron
The offseason started with more teams believing they’d have a realistic chance of selling LeBron and his agent Rich Paul. A recent comment from Anthony Edwards confirmed that he knows the Minnesota Timberwolves have a longshot chance of getting James. Polymarket shows that to be true with the 2% chance.
Philadelphia 76ers fans are still hoping that LeBron shocks the world by joining them. A core with Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and VJ Edgecombe would give them a fighting chance at NBA Championship contention. However, they rarely get named in reports and have fallen to a 9% chance.
Cleveland and Miami remain the strong favorites for good reason. Both teams have had James on their roster in the past to provide some familiarity for his final years. Each roster has stars like Donovan Mitchell or Giannis Antetokounmpo to believe in them winning.
Cavaliers Have One Backup Option For LeBron
Teams in the LeBron race need to have a couple of fallback options if they get snubbed by the all-time great player. Cleveland is reportedly interested in free agent Jonathan Kuminga as a younger forward to add more youth to the roster.
The Cavaliers would have to clear some salary by trading a role player like Dennis Schroder or Max Strus to give Kuminga a respectable contract offer. James is the top option, but going after Kuminga with the hopes of trying to unlock his potential is not a bad idea.
Miami also has some interesting backup choices of DeMar DeRozan and Bradley Beal on the free agent market. Both men are waiting for LeBron to pick a team so they can explore their options with more teams interested. Golden State has the worst situation of no rumored plans if James turns them down.
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