Money doesn’t always win elections, especially in newly redrawn districts. Case in point? Republican Jim Shoemaker’s lead in a down-ballot East Bay State Senate race.
Shoemaker, a businessman and former truck driver, is a relative political newcomer who has never held office before. He was vastly outspent by his experienced Democrat rivals. But they were trailing him Wednesday during a second day of vote counting, and there’s a possibility he could win the seat outright.
In an interview with this news organization, Shoemaker said the results were proof that well-funded candidates aren’t the only ones who can win.
“Every single person on my campaign is a volunteer,” Shoemaker said. “That’s the dedication that we’ve had.”
State Senate District 5, which covers much of eastern Alameda County and parts of San Joaquin County, was most recently represented by Democrat Susan Talamantes-Eggman, and observers considered it a safely Democratic seat.
That expectation was bolstered by huge fund-raising by the top two Democratic candidates in the race, former Congressman Jerry McNerney and State Assemblymember Carlos Villapudua, as well as spending by outside organizations.
McNerney’s campaign had raised about $300,000, compared to $423,000 raised by Villapudua through Feb. 17. Shoemaker, meanwhile, had raised just over $7,000 for his campaign.
And yet, results on Wednesday showed Shoemaker with an impressive lead over both Democrats. Shoemaker is now all but guaranteed a spot in the November election, and he also has an outside chance of winning the seat outright if further returns leave him with over 50% of the vote. If no candidate earns 50 %, the top two vote-getters will advance to the November election.
Shoemaker said he ran on a platform of public safety, school choice and traditional values and that he is concerned with the entitlement of the younger generation. He favors repealing Prop 47, which requires misdemeanor sentences instead of felonies for certain drug and property crimes, and said that more jails should be built.
“The story I’m telling is returning to values,” Shoemaker said. “We need to understand that there’s right and wrong. We need to punish wrong.”
Although Shoemaker expressed confidence that he would prevail come November, political observers said the surprise result might have less to do with Shoemaker’s vision and more to do with two Democratic candidates splitting the vote.
“What they do is they shoot each other in the crossfire, and the other one is left standing, and that’s Jim Shoemaker,” said Elizabeth Bergman, an associate professor of political science at Cal State East Bay. “It becomes very unpredictable sometimes who will come out on top.”
According to available records, an oil and gas PAC spent $522,000 in opposition to McNerney’s candidacy. Another PAC, “Fighting for our Future,” has spent an additional $347,000 opposing him. Meanwhile, a group representing nurses and educators, the largest spender in the race, has spent about $367,000 in support of McNerney and $630,000 opposing Villapudua.
It’s possible that spending left voters with a sour view of both candidates. Neither McNerney nor Villapudua campaign’s responded to requests for comment by press time.
Party registration in the district is 44% Democrat, 27% Republican, and 21% with no state party preference. After redistricting, the seat might be as safely Democratic as previously expected, Bergman said. Still, she expressed doubts that another surprise victory in the district race is possible in November.
“The likelihood that Shoemaker prevails in November is not very high,” Bergman said. “But after this, it’s anybody’s guess.”