Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Hey Parker, how do you think the running back situation is going to be next year? Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin seem like they’ll be heavily used. And Samaje Perine had his moments last season. Where does Audric Estime fit into this system?
— Mike, Denver
Hey Mike, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. Interesting question about one of the Broncos’ most interesting position groups.
This is the time of year when I make this caveat a lot, but here it is again for this week’s mailbag: It’s early. Really early.
OK, with that out of the way, the starting point on Estime is this: He got drafted in a position where the default assumption is he’s going to play. Maybe quite a bit. Now, the role is to be determined, but you don’t draft running backs in the middle rounds anymore if you’re not planning on them making an impact. The 6-foot-1, 225-pounder from Notre Dame played just three years of college ball and has just 373 college carries on his ledger. He scored 30 touchdowns in 25 games over the past two years. The biggest question at this point is probably about catching the ball after he had just 26 catches over that same span.
The interesting part, then, is that Denver has all three of its running backs from last year’s rotation still under contract for 2024.
Williams is the wild card and here’s why: It’s difficult for an outsider to evaluate his 2023 season. When you look at the numbers on the surface, they’re not pretty. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry despite rushing behind a blocking unit that finished third in run block win rate, one of ESPN’s advanced metrics. According to PFF, he forced 63 missed tackles as a rookie on 203 carries and then just 34 misses on 217 carries last year. His longest run of the year was 21 yards, he did less damage after contact and averaged 2.6 yards per carry over the final four games of the season.
However, he also played 16 games despite being less than a year off a significant knee injury that involved multiple ligaments and has cost players in similar positions 12 months or more. Coaches and teammates marveled at his rate of recovery and his ability to keep himself on the field. If he’d have played half the season, he’d get a pass considering the injury he had. So it doesn’t seem fair to dock him for getting back early and playing in every game but one.
The NFL, of course, is not fair. Perhaps particularly for running backs. Williams’ 2024 will be a fascinating one. Is he all the way back to pre-injury form? Or did it diminish his abilities?
Perine had 50 catches last year and McLaughlin is a dynamic change-of-pace guy, but probably not an every-down option at the moment. They’ve got relatively defined roles. Perine, in particular, will be tasked with showing he provides something to the offense that Estime doesn’t.
Most teams don’t keep four running backs on the 53-man roster. And the Broncos will also get a long look at Memphis undrafted rookie Blake Watson and returning practice squad-er Tyler Badie this summer. The competition’s just getting started.
Do you think we’ll see much from Troy Franklin this season? Two years being Nix’s No. 1 target at Oregon, he’s got to be a safe target for our new QB.
— Ryan C., Denver
Yeah, Ryan, good question. Ask me again in mid-August. Just kidding, kind of.
If you were penciling in a top trio right now based on the roster — and not on voluntary workout attendance — you’d likely go with Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims Jr. Then after that you’ve got Tim Patrick coming off back-to-back seasons lost due to injury, Brandon Johnson, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Jalen Virgil coming back off a torn ACL last summer and some veteran practice squad guys like Phillip Dorsett and David Sills.
That’s a lot of bodies for Franklin and seventh-round pick Devaughn Vele to compete with, but it’s not like the room is stacked with overwhelming recent production, either.
Franklin’s got a combination of traits not otherwise found in the room. Denver’s got guys with size. It’s got speed with Mims and Johnson. Franklin, the No. 102 overall pick in the draft, has both. Now, he’s got to learn the offense. He’s got to catch the ball consistently. He’s got to show he can be trusted not just by the familiar quarterback in Bo Nix, but also by the coaching staff and the other quarterbacks.
If he does all that, he’s going to have a great chance to play a lot. Assuming the room looks as it does currently, that still might not mean a ton of targets right out of the gate. The Broncos have other options, particularly at the top line. But he’s a guy who can scare defenses at 6-foot-3 with his speed.
Right now it’s safe to assume that the quarterback spot is Bo Nix’s to lose, right? I can’t see us marching into the new year with Jarrett Stidham under center.
— Mark, Arvada
How safe are we talking, Mark? It’s not a guarantee. Nix is going to get a good, long look this offseason. He’s going to get every chance to prove he can be the guy right from the jump. In last week’s mailbag, we covered several of the reasons why he’s got a chance to do it and why it would make sense to roll with him if he shows that he’s even in the same neighborhood as Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson.
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But he’s got to actually do it. And he’ll get the chance to start doing it for real at this weekend’s rookie minicamp. Let’s see if we can all keep from massively overreacting to a couple of days on the grass in May. Forecast says…. Not particularly likely.
Of the following, what’s your favorite and worst part of the offseason: writing this mailbag, reporting on free agency movements, Denver roster cuts, profiling draft choices or speculating on mock drafts? Or maybe something else?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, fun question and a tough one. The actual best part of the offseason is getting somewhere for a few days where your cell signal doesn’t work and you have no choice but to completely forget about it.
The NFL does a masterful job of staying in the conversation all offseason, so there’s usually something going on or coming up. Some of it is more enjoyable than others, naturally. Of course, you’re interested in the big free agent signings and early-round picks, but there are always interesting stories from the other players, too. One of the underrated parts is getting a look at rookie minicamp, then the mandatory minicamp, then the early days of training camp and trying to figure out who’s got a real chance to make the roster. You know maybe 40 of the guys that will make it, but sorting out the rest is always a fun challenge. Then the other constant is that it’s hard to beat the NFL combine. Essentially the entire league is there for the better part of a week. It’s a great time for reporting, networking, catching up with friends and colleagues and, oh yeah, learning about the draft class, too.
And, of course, The Mailbag is great! We get really good questions about the Broncos every week no matter how far away an actual game is. Pretty cool. Keep them coming.
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