The Denver Broncos have already changed the AFC West conversation once. Sportsbooks are not convinced they have changed it for good.
Despite Denver’s division title, a deep playoff push and the addition of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, the Kansas City Chiefs remain ahead of the Broncos in multiple AFC West futures markets. Sharp Football’s April 26 AFC West odds board listed the Chiefs at +170 at DraftKings, +180 at FanDuel and +180 at BetMGM. The Broncos were behind them at all three books, checking in at +210, +210 and +200.
BetMGM’s own AFC West market also framed the division as a tight race but still put Kansas City first at +180, followed by the Los Angeles Chargers at +185 and Denver at +200.
That is the troubling part for Denver. The Broncos are no longer being priced like a rebuilding team or a cute sleeper. But they are also not being priced like the unquestioned team to beat in their own division.
Sportsbooks are still giving that status to a rehabbing Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs.
Bo Nix’s Injury News Could be a Reason Kansas City Chiefs Are Favored
The most obvious football explanation is not hard to find: Bo Nix’s health.
Reuters reported on April 29 that Nix recently underwent a successful, pre-planned cleanup procedure on his injured right ankle. Nix suffered a fractured right ankle in Denver’s AFC divisional playoff win over the Buffalo Bills and later underwent surgery. The follow-up procedure was not presented as a setback, but Denver still planned to ease him through voluntary offseason work and OTAs.
Head coach Sean Payton gave an encouraging update, saying Nix was “doing great” and that the Broncos were excited about his progress, according to Reuters.
That is good news for Denver. It also does not completely erase why a sportsbook might hesitate before pricing the Broncos ahead of Kansas City.
The Chiefs’ case is boring, but it is durable. Mahomes is getting healthier, Reid is still in charge, and Kansas City has earned the benefit of the doubt in a way almost no other team has. Sharp Football’s AFC West write-up pointed out that the Chiefs had won the division nine straight years before Denver broke through in 2025.
The Broncos’ case is more complicated. It includes a younger quarterback, a major injury recovery and the challenge of proving that last season’s jump was not just a one-year spike.
That does not mean sportsbooks are right. In fact, there is a real argument that Denver is being undersold.
Sharp Football listed the Broncos as its “best sleeper bet” in the division, noting that Denver won the AFC West by multiple games, went 5-1 in division play and has a quarterback entering his third season with room to grow.
But the market message is still clear: Denver may have taken the division from Kansas City, but oddsmakers have not fully handed the AFC West over to the Broncos.
The Waddle trade did not change that, either.
Reuters reported in March that DraftKings shortened Denver’s AFC West odds after the reported Waddle acquisition, moving the Broncos from +240 to +230. Even then, Denver remained behind the Chiefs and Chargers. BetMGM and Caesars also still had the Broncos with the third-shortest odds in the division at the time, according to Reuters.
That is the part Broncos fans may find most irritating. Denver added another prime target for Nix, pairing Waddle with Courtland Sutton, and the market still did not elevate the Broncos above Kansas City.
Jonah Coleman Hasn’t Swayed the Books Yet
The Broncos’ counterargument is not only about Nix and Waddle. It is also about what Denver has done to make the offense less dependent on one player.
That is where rookie running back Jonah Coleman becomes interesting.
Denver selected Coleman out of Washington with the No. 108 overall pick in the fourth round of the 2026 NFL draft. The Broncos’ official site noted that Coleman rushed for 758 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2025 while adding 31 catches for 354 yards and two touchdowns. He also topped 1,000 rushing yards in 2024 with Washington and finished his college career with 3,054 rushing yards and 34 rushing touchdowns.
Denver has the quarterback, the upgraded receiving corps, the defense and now another physical back who fits what Payton wants. The uneasy part for Broncos fans is that sportsbooks still appear to trust Kansas City’s track record more than Denver’s breakout.
That gives the Broncos something they did not have last season after winning the division: a fresh reason to feel doubted again.
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