A week’s worth of free agency is in the books for the Broncos.
They’ve added a trio of defenders in safety Brandon Jones, defensive tackle Malcolm Roach and inside linebacker Cody Barton. They’ve retained several more from Sean Payton’s first year in Denver.
They’ve explored several options at quarterback but haven’t come away with a transaction to show for it.
In the process, the Broncos cleared a significant amount of cap space and committed, officially, to using $53 million of it to pay down the first big chunk of former quarterback Russell Wilson’s $85 million in dead salary cap charges.
General manager George Paton predicted at the NFL combine last month that the Broncos would be “strategic” rather than aggressive and that word fits the bill so far. Denver has proceeded clearly set against overspending in an offseason that is shaping up to look like a re-set.
Here’s what we’ve learned and what questions remain.
Three things we learned
The identity of Vance Joseph’s defense is going to be different
By sheer numbers, the Broncos may not actually have much turnover on defense. By leadership, though, this group is going to look markedly different in 2024.
In and of themselves, the departures of safety Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell aren’t shocking, though seeing Simmons released in the days before free agency was a surprise. Taken together, that pair represented the central nervous system of Denver’s defense for years, a guiding force across several head coaches and coordinators.
Jewell relayed the defensive calls from Joseph on the sideline. Then Simmons served as the quarterback from the back end, ensuring the secondary communicated coverage with the linebackers, corners and nickel Ja’Quan McMillian.
Now the two communication hubs — and two of Denver’s defensive leaders — are gone. It won’t be entirely new, of course. Alex Singleton called the defense when Jewell was out. P.J. Locke has played a lot. ILB Jonas Griffith and S Caden Sterns have been around and are hoping to stay healthy.
“I feel good about the young core on defense, and we will just continue to add depth,” Paton said at the combine before the team signed Jones and Roach in free agency and got Locke back on a two-year deal.
Denver Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton (49) waves his arms up and down trying to get the crowd loader during the second half at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Dec. 3, 2023. The Houston Texans beat the Denver Broncos 22 to 17 during week 13 of 2023 NFL season. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
Still, if a football defense is something like a baseball defense — you want to be strong up the middle at every level — then Denver is doing the rough equivalent of replacing its shortstop and center fielder.
Related Articles
Renck: No new Broncos quarterback in free agency? No problem. This is what rebuilding looks like.
Renck&File: Jets’ Aaron Rodgers going from MVP to VP is LOL funny
Broncos sign LB Cody Barton to one-year deal
Broncos Journal: Winners and losers from first week of NFL free agency
Without much to spend, Broncos may be targeting these free agents
This is now a group led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, defensive lineman Zach Allen and others like outside linebacker Baron Browning and Singleton. Familiar names, but also a new look and feel in the locker room.
The shakeup may have been anticipated, but it’s still massive
Aside from releasing Simmons rather than trading him or finding a way to extend his deal and lower his cap hit, none of the Broncos’ moves went down as stunners.
All the same, it is worth taking a step back and considering what’s happened this month.
Draw up a list of the most notable Broncos from the 2023 team. How far down the list do you get before you’ve added Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy and Simmons? Five or six, maybe? Jewell’s not far down the list from them, either.
Consider that seismic change and then think back to the middle of the season when Payton summarized his regular conversations with Paton in the lead-up to the trade deadline.
“We’ve got a good handle on this current roster and our vision for the roster a year from now,” Payton said then.
Denver could have worked on several veteran contracts before the 2023 season or during — it now infamously did try to do so with Wilson — but proceeded in a way that allowed the team to make whichever decision it wanted on a host of its most expensive players.
The first wave of moves on that front played out over the last 10 days. The string of goodbyes and thank-yous on social media is a good reminder that, while sentimentality exists in the NFL, it gets blocked out when making roster decisions.
The enduring trio
Despite the churn, left tackle Garett Bolles and receivers Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton endure. They’re now the longest-tenured trio of Broncos.
Patrick reworked his deal to stay for 2024, while the contracts for Sutton and Bolles remain unchanged. Sutton is due a $2 million roster bonus Sunday.
It’s quite possible that 2024 could be the last hurrah for any one or all of them, but overall the Broncos like Patrick’s leadership and the way Sutton responded in a 10-touchdown season under Payton in 2023. Bolles played steadily in 2023.
Denver cleared enough salary cap space in other ways that it can comfortably move forward with all three on the roster for 2024. The Broncos don’t have to look to trade Sutton or Bolles — they have not been in recent weeks, sources have indicated — though the possibility of moving either can’t be entirely ruled out if the right deal comes along.
Perhaps the draft will change the equation, either for Denver or another team. Bolles and Patrick are entering the final year of their contracts and the Broncos aren’t meaningfully committed to Sutton in terms of guaranteed money, either.
For now, this is the group that looks like 2024-and-then-we’ll-see.
Three questions that remain unanswered
The big one
The Broncos have been knee-deep in quarterback evaluation — free agency, trade market and next month’s draft — but have made no moves thus far.
Perhaps the most logical candidates from each of the first two categories were Sam Darnold and Sam Howell, respectively. Darnold got a one-year, $10 million deal from Minnesota, more than double what Baker Mayfield got last year as a former top draft pick trying to engineer a career resurgence. Washington got the equivalent of a late third-round draft pick from Seattle in exchange for Howell. Those are pretty strong prices and, in each case, the Broncos were clearly not willing to match or exceed.
The Broncos started the offseason looking for a player to add to their current mix of Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci in addition to a potential rookie. That they haven’t found that player so far might be just fine by them, but when you don’t have your answer at the game’s most important position, every move (or non-move) gets extra scrutiny.
Just how ready is Sean Payton to let the kids play?
Many of the Broncos’ moves this offseason signal a team getting younger and cheaper. Lloyd Cushenberry’s gone on a four-year, $50 million deal to Tennessee? Either second-year man Alex Forsyth or third-year Luke Wattenberg to replace him. Jeudy traded? In steps Marvin Mims, Jr. Denver views corner Riley Moss as a starting-caliber player but he only saw 23 defensive snaps as a rookie. Safety JL Skinner? One defensive snap
The players who got the most run as rookies were Mims (384 snaps or 35.4%) and linebacker Drew Sanders (23.8%).
The fact that the Broncos had a lack of immediate impact from its 2023 draft class may not come as a big shock since they didn’t pick until the last selection of the second round, but the Year 1 to Year 2 jump for this group — plus college free agents like Jaleel McLaughlin, Nate Adkins and several offensive linemen — is going to be critical. And where Denver was reluctant to put Sanders, Moss and Mims into big roles right away as rookies, the coaching staff may not have the same luxury with its 2024 draft class.
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) during warmups before playing the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High Nov. 19, 2023. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
You’ve got $67 million in dead salary cap so far. You’ve cleared some big contracts off the books by release and trade. Roll with the kids. Let them play, make mistakes and learn. A Los Angeles Rams team in a similar situation (except at quarterback) took that route in 2023 and ended up making a surprise run toward the playoffs after looking like a mess during a 3-6 start.
What’s the best use of remaining cap space?
The Broncos have somewhere between $22.6 million in cap space to work with before Barton’s deal is official, according to OvertheCap data. Their current slate of draft picks projects to take up about $4 million more, though that will change slightly depending on how much the team moves around in the draft.
So for estimate’s sake let’s say Denver has $16 million to work with now. They’ll sign more players, though big, splashy contracts at this point would be a surprise.
Here’s one path forward: Stuff most of the rest in your pocket and don’t even think about it until 2025. The NFL allows teams to roll cap space over. Denver had been at about $10 million in rollover until having less than $1 million this year.
Get back on that track. Take $10 million and treat it as if you’re actually paying down $63 million of Wilson’s dead cap rather than $53 million. If you surprise and you’re in contention mid-season, go ahead and deploy some of that flexibility for the here and now.
Otherwise, save as much of it as you can and spend it next year on mega-extensions for Pat Surtain II and Quinn Meinerz. Prepare for bigger cap hits from 2023 free-agent additions like Mike McGlinchey, Ben Powers and Zach Allen. After converting all of their salaries to bonuses for 2024, their combined cap charges this year are a paltry $21.65 million. Currently for 2025, the trio combines to charge $61.03 million.
Denver only has 27 players currently under contract for 2025 (28 once Surtain’s fifth-year option is exercised between now and May 2). Play this year right with the remaining cap space, and the team could have ample room to work, a curbed Wilson dead cap figure to clear his money entirely off the books and perhaps, finally, a full draft class to work with on top of the cap flexibility.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.