Supporters of the Bring Chicago Home referendum gathered at Intentinal Sports, 1841 N. Laramie Ave. in Austin, to await returns Tuesday night.
Francia García Hernández/For the Sun-Times
Mayor Brandon Johnson and the progressive movement behind him appeared headed toward a humiliating defeat Tuesday that will force them to search for another source of revenue to combat homelessness.
By an 8-percentage-point margin, Chicago voters were rejecting a binding referendum that would have authorized the City Council to raise the real estate transfer tax on high-end property transactions to generate an estimated $100 million in annual revenue to combat homelessness.
The vote was 54% to 46%, with 97.6% of the precincts counted.
The lowest turnout in at least 80 years for a presidential primary would have appeared to favor the Chicago Teachers Union, CTU-affiliated United Working Families and progressive unions that had already proven their ability to turn out their own voters in a low turnout election by electing Johnson nearly one year ago.
But the Building Owners and Managers Association and other monied real estate and business interests mounted a furious campaign to block the referendum, first in the courts, then through television commercials urging voters to reject what they claimed was a back-door property tax increase that would raise rents.
The $2 million-plus campaign questioned Johnson’s handling of violent crime and the migrant crisis and asked disgruntled voters whether they were prepared to give the mayor $100 million to spend without specifying exactly how.
The answer from those voters who bothered to turn out on Tuesday was a convincing “no.”
That will almost certainly weaken the mayor politically and embolden his critics.
“Bad policy should be defeated and voters saw that it was bad policy,” said veteran political strategist Greg Goldner, who quarterbacked the campaign against the tax.
“It can’t build affordable housing. It can’t solve homelessness. It can’t provide mental health services. It can’t solve the migrant crisis. It can’t provide affordable housing for teachers and vets. It can’t do all of those things for a revenue stream that has proven to be unpredictable.”
Ald. Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (35th), the mayor’s former City Council floor leader, made no attempt to hide his disappointment.
“This is not the result we wanted. We’re gonna have to take a real hard look at what happened and figure out how to move forward from here,” said Ramirez-Rosa, who was instrumental in getting the binding referendum through the City Council and onto the ballot after years of failure.
Ramirez-Rosa said he wants to “let the dust clear” before attempting to assess how big a political blow the defeat of Bring Chicago Home would be to Johnson, the most progressive mayor in Chicago history.
“The mayor’s critics were already emboldened. Many people have not been holding their punches against the mayor from across the ideological spectrum,” Ramirez-Rosa said.
“At the end of the day, this is a blow to people who wanted to address the crisis of homelessness that’s growing in our communities. That’s what it’s all about: Making sure that people in the city of Chicago have access to affordable, stable housing. That’s out of reach for too many people.”
A source close to the anti-tax campaign known as “Keep Chicago Affordable” accused Johnson of misreading his own victory, just as former Mayor Lori Lightfoot hS misread her victory.
“Just because he got 52% against Paul Vallas didn’t mean he had a mandate,” the source said.
“Before this campaign started — before any ads were ever run — his numbers were in the low 20s. This outcome is a reflection of his performance.”
Supporters of the referendum gathered in Austin to watch the returns. By around 9 p.m., about 60 people had arrived at Intentional Sports, 1841 N. Laramie Ave. — and tried to stay positive as a DJ played a mix of English and Spanish songs and black B-C-H balloons floated against a wall.
“We will not give up until every damn ballot is counted,” said Dianne Limas, a Communities United organizer, as the crowd loudly chanted “We will not give up.”
In addition to the political and financial blow, referendum’s likely defeat is also a deeply personal defeat for Johnson, whose own brother died “addicted and unhoused” and who, as a teacher, had students who were homeless.
The real estate industry had argued in court that the referendum illegally combined a tax increase with a tax cut. It asked voters to triple the transaction tax on that portion of a property sale over $1 million, quadruple the tax on the portion above $1.5 million, but lower the tax slightly on sales under $1 million.
Last year, downtown Ald. Brian Hopkins (2nd), an ardent foe of Bring Chicago Home, had branded the CTU and United Working Families “the New Machine.”
But less than a year after electing one of their own in Johnson, the “New Machine” suffered a breakdown that could have long-term implications for the man behind the wheel.