The Minnesota Vikings are stuck between sub-optimal options at the quarterback position, which may clear the way for a couple of big swings on calculated risks.
One such move that has gained popularity in recent days is trading star wide receiver Justin Jefferson and resetting the offense without him or quarterback Kirk Cousins in 2024. ESPN’s Aaron Schatz is the most recent NFL insider to author such a proposal, which was part of a series of “bold moves” he suggested to teams around the league on Friday, February 23.
Jefferson’s salary just ballooned to $19.7 million because of his fifth-year option in 2024, and it’s going to be higher than that if the Vikings can sign him to a long-term extension. He is also making noise that he wants to know the team’s future quarterback plans before he signs that extension.
He probably wants Kirk Cousins back. Cousins had one of his best half-seasons in 2023, but giving him another long-term deal at age 35 might not be the best decision for Minnesota’s future.
So why not just go for a total reset? Trade Jefferson for a couple of high draft picks. Use one of them to draft his replacement, the same way the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs and used the pick they got in return to draft Jefferson. Perhaps that pick can be used on a young quarterback, or to trade up for a better young quarterback.
Justin Jefferson Poised for Largest Wide Receiver Contract in NFL History
GettyWide receiver Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.
As Schatz noted, Minnesota doesn’t just have to consider what Jefferson will cost this season. The team must consider his price over a new four- or five-year contract.
Spotrac projects Jefferson’s market value at $29.3 million annually over a new four-year contract, which totals north of $117 million over the life of the deal. In reality, that figure is probably low for myriad reasons.
First, Jefferson has been arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL when healthy over the first four years of his career. Schatz pointed out that Jefferson was in “the top three [receivers] in total value” in each of his initial three campaigns. He missed seven games with a hamstring injury in 2023 or probably would have numbered among the league’s very best last season as well.
Jefferson probably could have commanded the richest deal at the position in league history even before the NFL announced on Friday that the salary cap will increase by $30 million in 2024. The total number will be $255.4 million — plus an extra $74 million per team, which organizations can utilize for the purposes of player benefits, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.
Minnesota’s top playmaker has tallied 392 receptions for 5,899 receiving yards and 30 TDs across 60 games played, per Pro Football Reference.
Duo of Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins Will Be so Expensive That Other Areas of Vikings’ Roster Will Suffer
GettyMinnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (left) and quarterback Kirk Cousins (right).
The top receiver salary in the league (Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins) tops out with an annual average of $30 million. Jefferson is likely to seek more than that figure over a five-year contract, which will hamstring the Vikings to a degree moving forward if they must also bring Cousins back into the fold.
To be clear, trading Jefferson will hurt no matter what because of how good he projects to be over the next 10 years. As such, advocating for the move outright is a hard sell. But for the sake of argument, his return to Minnesota doesn’t work as well long-term unless the team moves on from Cousins.
Doing both is acceptable only in a world in which the franchise uses the draft capital it gets back to move into the top three and draft a can’t-miss quarterback. Whether that is Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye is difficult to say at this point, though the wrong decision heaped on top of trading a player like Jefferson would likely spell the end for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.
For that reason alone, dealing Jefferson is unlikely. However, if the Vikings can’t figure out a way to get a franchise quarterback in the huddle with less tread than Cousins and higher playoff upside, the whole regime in Minnesota could flip yet again in a matter of just a couple of seasons anyway.
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