The Toronto Blue Jays 25-year-old slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will no longer be a Blue Jay after the 2025 season. At least, that’s how the situation was shaping up on Tuesday after the team and their franchise player announced that they had failed to agree on terms for a contract extension beyond the end of 2025.
“They have their numbers; I have my numbers,” Guerrero told ESPN reporter Jeff Passan.
Guerrero is the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero who played 16 MLB seasons mainly for the Montreal Expos (who have since moved to Washington D.C. and become the Nationals) and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (as that team was then called). The younger Guerrero had laid down a self-imposed deadline of February 17 for working out an extension that would keep him in Toronto.
Guerrero did not publicly state the dollar figure he was seeking, but some media reports have said that it would take at least $400 million to satisfy the star who has hit 160 home runs in his six seasons with the Blue Jays.
Guerrero is Forcing Blue Jays to Trade Him
Guerrero said that he “won’t close the door” on returning to the Blue Jays if they make him a “realistic” offer, but the four-time All-Star, based on advanced statistics, may be overestimating his value. According to the Fangraphs statistic “weighted runs created-plus,” or wRC+, which standardizes offensive production so that the Major League average is always 100, Guerrero’s career wRC+ figure is 137. That number ties him with former Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman who after reportedly seeking a six-year, $200 million free agent deal, settled for a three-year $120 million contract from the Boston Red Sox.
Guerrero has now put the Blue Jays in a position where they appear forced to work out a trade for Guerrero Jr., rather than risk losing him for no more than a compensatory draft pick in free agency. Of course, unless the team acquiring Guerrero could hammer out details of an extension, he would serve only as a “rental” for the duration of the 2025 season after he gets traded.
According to one such potential trade, pitched by Fansided scribe Zach Pressnell, the Detroit Tigers would secure their status as a top American League contender by sending a talent-laden package of four players back to Toronto.
Package of Four Tigers Players Proposed
Those four players, according to Pressnell, would be:
⢠Second baseman Colt Keith. In his rookie year, the 26-year-old Keith hit 13 home runs and posted a .689 OPS, but is considered to have enough potential that the Tigers already locked him into a six-year, $28.6 million contract before his debut season in 2024.
⢠Kevin McGonigle, a 20-year-old middle infielder who is listed as the No. 28 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline.
⢠Hao-Yu Lee, a third baseman acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 who is now the No. 8 ranked prospect in Detroit’s system.
⢠Troy Melton, a 24-year-old righty pitcher currently with the Erie SeaWolves, Detroit’s Double-A minor league affiliate. With Erie in 2024, Melton posted a 5.10 ERA over 100 2/3 innings in 23 starts. But his career professional ERA remains at a respectable 3.87
Would those four players be enough to get a Guerrero Jr. deal done, recognizing that his trade value is lowered by the fact that he would likely depart after the season? Or would the Blue Jays insist on a Major League talent such as 2020 No. 1 overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson, who was the subject of trade speculation throughout the offseason, but who is now fighting for a roster spot in the Tigers spring training camp?
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