Many Blackhawks fans are tired of hearing about draft picks, but they’re still very important for the future of the organization — even if not quite as all-engrossing as they were a few years ago.
For the first time in a few years, the Hawks aren’t guaranteed another top-three pick. On the other hand, they could end up with not just one but two entries in the NHL draft lottery for the first time.
The Hawks entered Monday tied for the fifth-fewest points (51) in the league. If they finished the season there, they would have an 8.7% chance of winning each of the two lotteries for the No. 1 and No. 2 picks (per Tankathon), and they would be guaranteed a top-seven pick.
It’s worth noting they’re only two points ahead of the Blues (49 points) in second-to-last place, so that could easily change. The Rangers, Flames and Jets are in that mix, too. The Canucks (42 points) are running away, so to speak, with last place. Those six teams are starting to separate themselves as the bottom six.
It’s worth noting the Hawks are still on pace to finish with 15 points more than last season — a substantial improvement. It’s only because of the league’s parity this season that they’re even in the conversation for another bottom-three finish.
But one factor adds extra intrigue: the Hawks own the Panthers’ first-round pick, and the Panthers are in serious danger of missing the playoffs.
The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions entered Monday tied for 11th in the Eastern Conference with 59 points, eight points behind the Sabres for the last wild-card spot, after suffering three consecutive losses.
And the Panthers are arguably lucky to even be in that position, thanks to a great record in one-goal games. They entered Monday with a subpar minus-11 goal differential.
It’s still difficult to reasonably count out the Panthers, especially because they made an against-the-odds late surge into the playoffs in 2023 — actually with some help from the Hawks, who dealt the Penguins a fatal blow — and because Matthew Tkachuk is now healthy and heating up.
The Hawks should be rooting hard against the Panthers down the stretch this year, though. Getting a top-16 pick in addition to Spencer Knight from the Seth Jones trade would represent some tidy business. (Jones has been injured for nearly a month now for Florida.)
If the season ended today, the Panthers’ pick would have only a 3.2% chance of winning the lottery — and would only move up to fourth overall if it did win — but that’s of little concern. The Hawks assumed it would likely land in the 25th-32nd range when they acquired it.
While waiting for the standings and draft order to become clearer, the Hawks’ amateur scouting department continues to do what they do. They have a complicated job this year.
No longer is there a consensus No. 1 prospect in the 2026 class. In fact, there’s no consensus hierarchy at all. It’s a wide-open field.
Forwards Ivar Stenberg, Gavin McKenna, Tynan Lawrence, Caleb Malhotra, Viggo Bjorck and Ethan Belchetz and defensemen Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, Alberts Smits, Carson Carels and Daxon Rudolph are all in the top-five conversation, not to mention the top-10 conversation.
It would perhaps be surprising if anyone other than Stenberg, McKenna or Verhoeff went No. 1, but there’s still plenty of time for things to change. McKenna has halted his downward spiral, but his questionable work ethic still makes him seem antithetical to the Hawks’ usual type.
There’s also no guarantee this year the Hawks will prioritize forwards over defensemen. With so many young defensemen having graduated into the NHL, their ‘D’ pipeline is actually sparser now.
But with two relatively high picks, they could easily nab one forward and one defenseman each.
