The Warriors are emerging from the All-Star break with a clear path to the postseason ahead of them, but with little room for error to take a wrong turn.
At 27-26, Golden State is in 10th place in the Western Conference. They have found something in downshifting their lineup with Draymond Green at center. Jonathan Kuminga has emerged as a regular 20-point scorer. Brandin Podziemski has secured a starting lineup spot. Chris Paul is returning imminently and Steph Curry remains among the game’s most lethal scorers.
But in a tight West, they have work to do with 29 games remaining. If the season ended today, the current playoff format would have the Warriors playing a pair of do-or-die games to just claim the eighth seed.
Escaping the play-in tournament, where Golden State’s 2020-21 season died, could prove vital. They control their own destiny, but projections models available to the public are pessimistic that the Warriors can make that strong of a push, though.
Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report gives the Warriors a 48.6% chance at reaching the playoffs, but almost certainly through the play-in tournament. According to the model, Golden State has 4.4% odds of claiming a seed 1-6 to avoid the play-in. That’s about the same chance the Warriors have at completely bottoming out of the top 10 seeds altogether.
That model’s methodology is based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season. Playoffstatus.com, a different source, has an even gloomier outlook.
Per PlayoffStatus.com, the Warriors are at an 18% risk of falling out of the playoffs. That would require the Jazz, who are one game behind Golden State in the win column, passing them in the standings for 10th place.
Notably, the Warriors squeaked past Utah in their last game before the All-Star break, overcoming a defensive slide in the fourth quarter. They’ll meet twice more in the final week of the season with potentially huge playoff implications.
Before play resumes after the All-Star break, here’s what the relevant playoff picture in the West looks like (play-in italicized):
Minnesota Timberwolves (39-16)
Oklahoma City Thunder (37-17)
Los Angeles Clippers (36-17)
Denver Nuggets (36-19)
Phoenix Suns (33-22)
New Orleans Pelicans (32-23)
Dallas Mavericks (32-23)
Sacramento Kings (31-23)
Los Angeles Lakers (30-26)
Golden State Warriors (27-26)
Utah Jazz (26-30)
After the defending champion Nuggets, seeds five through nine are separated by three games in the win column. A lot can change in the final two months of the season.
Vegas odds, which use their own formulas as well as public betting action, list the Warriors as a slight -150 favorite to miss the playoffs according to DraftKings.
The Warriors have ground to make up, but the good news for them is they have the second easiest remaining strength of schedule, per Tankathon. They get to play the Pistons, Blazers, Spurs and Nets twice more, plus a game against both the Hornets and Wizards.
But in a league of parity and 3-point variance, any team can win on a given night. Although they’re 15-6 against sub-.500 teams, the veteran Warriors know they can’t take any opponent lightly.
If Golden State can continue to play as it did in the weeks leading up to the break, when it won eight of 10, the projection models’ skepticism won’t come to bear. Their first test: at Chase Center against LeBron James and the Lakers.