From now until the 2026 NFL Draft is concluded, the ongoing question will be whether Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is a first-round pick or not.
Over the last week or so, thanks mostly to ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky’s hot take that Simpson is the QB1 in this year’s draft over Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza — the presumed No. 1 overall pick — that debate has only heated up.
Orlovsky was raked through the coals for his take, quickly becoming public enemy No. 1 among analysts. But his opinion isn’t all that different from others that have surfaced throughout the process. Ultimately, it’s all a guessing game this time of year.
That said, ESPN’s Jeff Legwold recently broke things down by comparing Simpson to past quarterbacks who carried a similar flaw into the NFL.
Ty Simpson’s Lack of Starts Raises Red Flags
The biggest sticking point in Simpson’s evaluation is his lack of starts at Alabama.
“If he is selected in the first round on April 23 in Pittsburgh, Simpson will be the 10th quarterback with 20 or fewer college starts to be picked on the first day of the draft since 2006, according to ESPN Research,” Legwold wrote. “And he’d be the fifth with as few as 15. The track record of the other passers on that list has been largely underwhelming.”
And that track record is rough.
The previous quarterbacks drafted in the first round with fewer than 20 starts include Ryan Tannehill (19), Mac Jones (17), Kyler Murray (17), Trey Lance (17), Mark Sanchez (16), Dwayne Haskins Jr. (14), Cam Newton (14), Mitchell Trubisky (13) and Anthony Richardson (13).
Among that group, there are just seven Pro Bowl selections — split between Jones (1), Murray (2), Newton (3) and Trubisky (1). More concerning, only Tannehill, Murray and Newton earned second contracts.
Newton clearly stands out as the most successful, leading the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl during his MVP season.
Simpson, though, pushed back on the idea that his limited starts tell the full story.
“Everybody talks about my starts, but I played in other games besides that,” Simpson said. “I played really good NFL players. Think about my freshman year, learning from the No. 1 overall pick and Heisman Trophy winner [Bryce Young] … going on scout team I got Will Anderson [Jr.], Dallas Turner, Henry To’oTo’o, got Kool-Aid [McKinstry] on one side, Terrion [Arnold] on the other side. … The Alabama locker room was as close to a locker room in the NFL as you can get.”
Skepticism Continues Around Ty Simpson’s Draft Stock
Not everyone is buying into the first-round hype.
3 & Out’s John Middlekauff made it clear he doesn’t see Simpson as a Day 1 pick.
“Ty Simpson is not a first round pick for me,” Middlekauff said. “I didn’t see it when I watched him. I used his comp of like I see some similarities to [Brock] Purdy, who was a seventh-round pick. Those type of players for me are guys that are drafted after pick 100.”
Middlekauff also pointed to Mendoza as the better overall prospect.
Mendoza holds a clear edge in experience, with 36 career starts between his time at Cal and Indiana. Simpson, meanwhile, spent four years at Alabama but didn’t become the full-time starter until last season.
At this point, it would be shocking to see Simpson leap Mendoza in the draft order.
The real question now isn’t whether he’s QB1 — it’s whether he hears his name called on Day 1 at all, or if he slips into Day 2, with Day 3 not entirely out of the question.
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