A former professional sports team doctor said Friday that Aaron Judge faces a much longer recovery period than many fans expect, offering a troubling new assessment of the superstar’s rib injury and potential return timeline.
Judge’s injury has already raised concerns throughout baseball, but the latest analysis suggests the Yankees may need to prepare for the possibility of an extended absence from their franchise cornerstone.
Sports medicine physician Dr. David Chao â who spent 17 years as head team physician for the NFL’s San Diego Chargers and has served as team doctor for the Chicago Bulls, Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns â posted a detailed breakdown on social media after the Yankees announced the diagnosis, and there was both good news and bad news in Chao’s assessment. The good news: No surgery needed for Judge, and the three-time MVP does not have thoracic outlet syndrome. Judge’s comeback during the 2026 season remains the expectation.
The bad news? Judge will need a complete shutdown of all baseball activities for at least 30 and up to 45 days. That’s how much enforced rest the 6-foot-7, 282-pound Judge will require before doctors can even conduct new imaging.
“Likely 60-day IL at this point,” Chao wrote. “Two months IL for Aaron Judge.” Judge could be out even longer, depending on what imaging shows after the two-month mark, and how quickly his rehab progresses once he resumes baseball activities.
The Yankees confirmed Judge’s diagnosis after the 34-year-old underwent an MRI, CT scan and X-rays, evaluated by multiple specialists including a vascular surgeon in Dallas, according to an MLB.com report. He missed three consecutive games before the club announced the injury. Judge is hitting .248 with 17 home runs and a .907 OPS across 59 games, and that is where his stat line will stay for the foreseeable future.
Second Doc Explains Judge’s Rib Fracture
Why does the first rib fracture? Dr. Ismael Gallo, a doctor of physical therapy who works with professional baseball players through the Baseball Flows platform, addressed that question.
The rib itself, Gallo argued, is rarely the original problem. It’s a casualty.
“The first rib is often the victim, not the culprit,” Gallo wrote, on his social media account. “Stress accumulates.”
The Baseball Flows founder appeared to say that Judge’s injury likely resulted not from a single play, such as a collision with an outfield wall, but from the normal, repetitive act of swinging a bat.
When a player’s movement system breaks down â poor force transfer from the ground through the hips and trunk â the body reroutes that energy upward, Gallo explained. The upper chest, neck and shoulder girdle absorb the load. Muscles including the anterior scalene and pectoralis minor become overactive, pulling at the first rib from competing directions. The bone eventually cracks.
“The area becomes overloaded because it’s doing a job it was never designed to do,” Gallo wrote.
Recovery means more than waiting for bone to mend. Gallo’s framework calls for rebuilding the movement system from the ground up so the same mechanical breakdown does not recur once Judge returns to the batter’s box.
Yankees Offense Without Aaron Judge
The 2026 Yankees are better equipped to absorb the blow than any recent version of the team’s roster. Strip Judge from the team hitting stats and New York still posts a 109 wRC+ and .744 OPS â fourth in MLB, per The Athletic‘s Chris Kirschner.
“I think we’re definitely more equipped,” manager Aaron Boone said on Thursday.
Spencer Jones was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he slashed .269/.378/.571 with 13 home runs. Jasson DomÃnguez began a rehab assignment Friday, with Giancarlo Stanton’s best-case return around June 16.
Nonetheless, if Judge’s recovery takes longer than expected, it could dramatically alter both the Yankees’ postseason outlook and the American League race.
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