The 49ers have played in the NFC Championship Game four of the last five seasons and the Super Bowl twice over that span.
There has been only one sustained run of success like it in 49ers history, when they were in six conference title games in seven years between 1988 and 1994 and were world champions three times.
Coach Kyle Shanahan, teamed with general manager John Lynch, has not won the big one. But he’s getting them to the precipice with regularity and the cupboard is not bare. Wipe away the pain of a 25-22 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and is it really so hard to believe they can’t make another run at it?
The 2023 49ers are history. Roster turnover is inevitable.
“The more good players you get, the tougher decisions you have,” general manager John Lynch said Tuesday at the 49ers’ season-ending press conference. “It’s tough to take care of everyone. I know a lot of players want to be here. I’ve already had those conversations with people and there’s a way to get it done . . . it’s nice that we’re expecting 10, 11 draft choices with compensation and such. We’re going to be healthy there. You’ve got to have those guys contribute when you have as many high-priced players as we have.”
Lynch along with the 49ers’ cap experts will crunch the numbers according to Shanahan’s wishes.
Which names currently under contract are carved in stone for the 2024 roster? Here’s an educated guess:
Stone-cold locks
QB Brock Purdy: His only failing is that he wasn’t Patrick Mahomes. Shanahan got fabulously lucky when Purdy exceeded all expectations because he’d stepped so far outside of his comfort zone with Trey Lance and whiffed. Plus he makes just over $1 million, opening up possibilities elsewhere.
DE Nick Bosa: He said he didn’t do enough at the Super Bowl, but when Bosa watches the tape he may feel differently. A new defensive coordinator’s first order of business is to turn Bosa loose and not get too clever.
RB Christian McCaffrey: The NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year has suited up for 33 games as a 49er including the postseason and has 40 touchdowns. He’s woefully underpaid (his cap number is half that of Deebo Samuel) but there’s no indication he’s looking for a pay bump.
LT Trent Williams: He’s probably still upset about a penalty and false start that killed a 49ers drive in the Super Bowl. But Williams has got another Pro Bowl on his mind en route to a yellow jacket and the Hall of Fame and there’s no reason to believe he won’t get it.
MLB Fred Warner: The leader of the 49ers’ defense is a two-time All-Pro and conscience.
TE George Kittle: It was a pretty healthy year for Kittle and it showed in his production. What the 49ers need is a second tight end who’s a legitimate receiving option.
CB Charvarius Ward: He’s the closest thing the 49ers have to lock down outside corner. Ward had games where he shadowed the opponent’s top receiver — something the 49ers hadn’t done previously and may not do again now that Steve Wilks is out of the picture.
DT Javon Hargrave: Truth be told, he probably didn’t live up to his contract but was still a positive presence and not a candidate for release given the damage it would do to the salary cap.
Cornerback Deommdore Lenoir (2) will be one of the building blocks for the 49ers’ 2024 defense. Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group
FB Kyle Juszczyk: The only way Juszczyk is out is if Shanahan isn’t the coach. Shanahan is the coach and he wants a fullback. This is the fullback.
CB Deommodore Lenoir: Lenoir did good work outside and inside in both coverage and as a playmaker. His progress has been a steady ascent.
LB Dre Greenlaw: He’ll be rehabbing an Achilles’ tear. It’s a tough road for someone who relies on being explosive. We may not see the real Greenlaw until 2025. But the 49ers are obligated to see it through with Greenlaw for the way he fought through the Achilles’ tendonitis before it finally popped.
SS Talanoa Hufanga: The tear to his ACL came early enough he could be ready for Week 1. Hufanga wasn’t the same player before being injured under Wilks that he was in Year 2 under DeMeco Ryans.
C Jake Brendel: He got paid last year so he’ll be back after a solid season.
T Colton McKivitz: Even if the 49ers go out and get a right tackle to fortify the right side of the line, McKivitz stays as a swing tackle. He played more snaps than any other 49ers offensive lineman.
LG Aaron Banks: The Alameda native made positive strides in his second year as a starter.
K Jake Moody: What do you think the chances are Robbie Gould would have attempted 53- and 55-yard field goals in a Super Bowl? Even with a perfect postseason record, the answer is no chance.
S Ji’Ayir Brown: The rookie showed enough that he should be penciled in as a starting safety.
P Mitch Wishnowsky: He had a very good under-the-radar season for both distance and pinning opponents in poor field position.
RB Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell is probably one more injury away from the 49ers simply throwing up their hands in frustration but Shanahan loves his running style.
G Spencer Burford: He didn’t make the second-year leap Banks did in 2022 but hard to envision giving up on him this soon.
Deebo Samuel (19) of the 49ers has a million cap number that could make retaining Brandon Aiyuk difficult. Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group
Keep an eye on
WRs Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel: Can they keep both? It’s hard to envision Aiyuk playing under his fifth-year option of $14 million, and will Samuel restructure and drop his $28 million cap hit?
DT Arik Armstead: He also has a bloated cap number of more than $28 million and has missed 13 out of 34 games in the last two regular seasons. Armstead is a beloved member of the roster, but it’s a rough business sometimes.
49ers free agents
Unrestricted unless otherwise indicated
DE Randy Gregory, DE Chase Young, QB Sam Darnold, DE Javon Kinlaw, FS Tashaun Gipson, DT Sebastian Joseph, LB Oren Burks, DE Clelin Ferrell, G Jon Feliciano, DT Kevin Givens, WR-PR Ray-Ray McCloud, LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, TE Ross Dwelley, WR Chris Conley, QB Brandon Allen, DB Logan Ryan, OL Matt Pryor, TE Charlie Woerner, WR Jauan Jennings (RFA), G Ben Bartch (RFA)
Summary: Nobody on the free agent list jumps out as a must-have in 2024 but many will get consideration based on whether they want to return or go to the highest bidder. Since Jennings remains under team control, it’s hard to envision the 49ers letting him walk away.
The open market
The 49ers have manipulated the cap to pull out a big-ticket surprise in each of the last two years — Ward in 2022 and Hargrave last season. If they’re thinking big strike again, some names to be considered if franchise tags don’t take them off the market:
S Antoine Winfield Jr., Tampa Bay: A versatile safety who can play the back end, the slot and fit into any system.
CB L’Jarius Snead, Kansas City: If you can’t beat ’em . . . Chiefs D-coordinator Steve Spagnuolo raved about him during Super Bowl week.
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DEs Josh Allen, Jacksonville and Brian Burns, Carolina: They’re still looking for the bookend rusher to go along with Bosa. Allen is coming off a 17 1/2-sack season and could be out of range if allowed to test free agency. Burns had eight sacks. Both are 3-4 outside linebackers and would have to pass the Kris Kocurek evaluation as rush ends in the 49ers system.
Gs Kevin Dotson, Los Angeles, Kevin Zeitler, Baltimore; T Jonah Williams, Cincinnati: Potential upgrades on the right side, although it’s tricky judging the way the 49ers deploy their linemen in the outside zone scheme.
LB Azeez Al-Shaair, Tennessee: Not a big-ticket item. But if the 49ers are waiting on Greenlaw, they could do a lot worse than Al-Shaair, who fared well on a one-year deal in Tennessee and is just one year removed from the 49ers.