Oscar voting ended on Thursday, which means we’re now in Anonymous Oscar Ballot Season!!! CB and I recorded the Gossip With Celebitchy podcast yesterday and she said she was looking forward to reading all of the anonymous ballots. I am as well, because so many categories are nowhere near settled. I came into this believing that the only categories with locked-in winners are Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Best Actress (Jessie Buckley). Beyond that, it’s chaos. Well, Variety spoke to many Oscar voters as they finalized their ballots in recent weeks, and they’ve tried to summarize voters’ thoughts. Note: this year, the ballot system was different and it really forced voters to watch every nominated film, which meant people were waiting until the very last minute to cast their ballots. You can see Variety’s anonymous ballots story here. Some highlights:
Best Picture/Best Director: Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s political thriller “One Battle After Another” are, by a wide margin, the top two choices among voters. So dominant are those films that it is difficult to name a clear third-place contender. They have consumed the race. What makes the contest especially compelling is the psychology of voters who admire both films. In at least six conversations with ballot-sharing voters, a pattern emerged: Many said some version of, “‘One Battle After Another’ is going to win best picture, but I voted for ‘Sinners.’” In some cases, that same split extended to best director: “Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win, but I voted for Ryan Coogler.”…That means Coogler’s candidacy for best director is real, despite Anderson’s sweep of precursor awards.
Best Actor: Best actor is, by a considerable margin, the most scattered category in this ballot survey. Support is spread across several contenders, though one theme is clear: Michael B. Jordan has built enough backing to emerge as a serious favorite for his first Oscar. Still, a meaningful number of votes also went to Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle After Another” and Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon.” If Jordan has spoilers, they appear to be those two. What did not surface in significant numbers were votes for Timothée Chalamet in “Marty Supreme” or a broad wave of support for Wagner Moura in “The Secret Agent.” Both remain in the conversation, but not at the level their campaigns may have hoped.
Best Actress & the foreign films felt like “homework” to many voters: “Hamnet,” “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” were the late homework assignments for many members, films a notable number of voters had not seen until the final days of balloting. That timing could help Jessie Buckley, who has been a consistent force throughout the season. A fresh late screening of “Hamnet” may have worked in her favor. Buckley is the most consistently mentioned name in best actress. There is broad enthusiasm for her performance, and “Hamnet” also appears to function as an alternative to “One Battle After Another” for some voters. Among those who were less responsive to the film, support split among Kate Hudson for “Song Sung Blue,” Rose Byrne for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” and Emma Stone for “Bugonia.” It is not a deep bench of challengers, but it does suggest the category is not entirely locked.
Supporting Actor is a three-man race: The supporting actor race appears to have narrowed to three contenders: Delroy Lindo for “Sinners,” Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value.” Early ballots showed strong support for Lindo, with Skarsgård close behind and little movement for Penn. But in the final 48 hours before voting closed at 5 p.m. PT, that changed. Penn’s late momentum makes him a plausible winner, which would give him a third Oscar after victories for “Mystic River” and “Milk.” Skarsgård remains the wild card. Many voters had not yet seen “Sentimental Value” when contacted, meaning late viewings may have consolidated support around the veteran Swedish actor.
Supporting Actress: Supporting actress produced some of the most nuanced ballot conversations. Amy Madigan’s performance in “Weapons” appears to carry substantial goodwill among Los Angeles-based industry voters, the kind of hometown backing that can matter in a close race. Her SAG Award win reflects that strength. But Wunmi Mosaku of “Sinners” may be the most interesting contender in the category. She seems to be pulling support from two different groups: committed “Sinners” voters checking the film across the ballot, and “One Battle After Another” supporters who appear to be using the category as a place to honor another standout performance. In at least a few cases, voters who favored “One Battle After Another” in best picture, director and actor still chose Mosaku over co-nominee Teyana Taylor in supporting actress. That dual appeal, both passionate first-choice support and affectionate crossover backing, could be enough to carry Mosaku to a win. One voter told Variety that, in all their years voting for the Oscars, supporting actress was the toughest category they’ve ever voted on.
Oscar ballot #3 is from a Black American in the artisans branch: (Note by Kaiser: I’m summarizing the ballot – this person voted for Sinners in every category where Sinners was nominated.) Then this voter had this to say: “Are we allowed to finally talk about why ‘One Battle After Another’ is a bad movie, or are we still just pretending it’s not the most problematic movie for the Black community since maybe ‘Green Book’? People are too scared to say what they think in Hollywood. That includes journalists and critics. It’s easier to come down on an underdog than say, ‘Dear Mr. Anderson, your movie is not great.’ All because he made ‘Boogie Nights’?”
The races are even more chaotic than I realized, my God. The Best Actor stuff is fascinating, because I really thought that Wagner Moura represented a real challenge to the field, but I guess not. I forgot that Academy voters are too dumb to watch subtitled films. Which is a shame, because Moura’s performance is incredible. But it’s also interesting that even before Michael B. Jordan’s SAG win, Timothee Chalamet was already being ignored by voters. MBJ has momentum – Chalamet never had it. It’s also incredible to see a groundswell of support for Wunmi Mosaku, and I love how much consideration she’s being given. I would be pleased if she won, but I would be fine if Amy Madigan won too.
What else? Supporting actor is CRAZY. While I think Sean Penn actually gave an award-worthy performance, I loved Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value and he’s been my pick for months. Delroy Lindo’s late surge is well-deserved and hard-earned, and I could totally see him winning. I could totally see Penn winning too.
The stuff about One Battle After Another being another Green Book… lol. I think that’s unfair, but it’s in reaction to the stupid hype around OBAA as “politically important.” It’s not politically important, IMO.
Photos courtesy of Avalon Red, Shutterstock for The Actor Award. Posters courtesy of Warner Bros.
