As the NFL Season approaches, predictions about what may occur throughout the next year begin to flourish. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently battle with quarterback Baker Mayfield in contract negotiations. Subsequently, the possibility exists that the deal falls through, and that is exactly what Jarrett Bailey of SBNation predicts.
Bailey believes that the Buccaneers and Mayfield fail to finalize an extension, making him a free agent for the 2027 season as a result. Further, Bailey lists the team that Mayfield goes to next season: The Houston Texans. Despite rostering former Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud, a divorce seems possible given Stroud’s failure in the playoffs in 2025. As a result, the Texans trade Stroud to the Atlanta Falcons to become their quarterback of the future.
Bailey writes, “Baker Mayfield is from Austin, which is about a two and a half hour drive from Houston. Despite a respectable 2026 season that sees Mayfield throw for 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns, the Bucs miss the playoffs. He decides to return home to a team that needs an upgrade at quarterback after being eliminated in the divisional round for the fourth consecutive year despite having the league’s top defense.”
Buccaneers Could Reject Mayfield Contract If Team Fails in 2026
Even if Mayfield has a successful 2026 season statistically, a season in which the Buccaneers miss the playoffs could trigger a rebuild.
While most of the conversation around a possible Mayfield extension surrounds his ability as a quarterback, the Buccaneers may just not be good enough to give him a contract of magnitude. Compared to the Buccaneers, the Texans are further ahead in terms of their Super Bowl aspirations. The Buccaneers now toe the line between going into a rebuild or pushing their chips in on this situation.
While both pathways have their own arguments, the Texans have an elite defense that out ranks the Buccaneers middle of the pack unit in almost all regards. Head Coach Todd Bowles remains on the hot seat. A poor season where Tampa Bay misses the playoff could spell doom for the current core of the roster. The Buccaneers have a solid team, but solid teams rarely win the Super Bowl. You need elite talent.
Mayfield Decision Could Drop Buccaneers to Bottom of the NFC South
If or when Mayfield leaves Tampa Bay, the result could plunge the Buccaneers to the bottom of the NFC South.
This proposed scenario offers doom for the Buccaneers NFC South prospects over the next few years. Unless the Buccaneers acquire their immediate quarterback of the future in the 2027 NFL Draft, there will be growing pains. Not only does Atlanta acquire their next quarterback in Stroud, but the New Orleans Saints become the NFC South champion in this prediction.
The Carolina Panthers finish 5-12 and move on from Bryce Young as well. They would immediately be competing with the Buccaneers for young quarterbacks. If the Buccaneers finish 8-9 for example, they start behind the eight-ball in the NFL Draft sweepstakes. The Panthers and other struggling organizations have better odds to land the top signal callers. That would mean a 2027 season where the Buccaneers possibly tank for a quarterback in 2028.
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