Argentina now knows exactly what awaits in the Round of 16. Egypt punched its ticket by outlasting Australia 4-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw through extra time on Friday, setting up a Tuesday, July 7 showdown after the defending champions overcame a surprisingly tough Cape Verde side first.
Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and the winner of that Round of 16 clash steps directly into a quarterfinal picture that could get significantly tougher.
If Argentina beats Egypt, it would move on to a July 11 quarterfinal in Kansas City. Under a simulation built around a straightforward path where the higher FIFA-ranked side wins every remaining matchup, that opponent projects as Colombia, which enters the bracket unbeaten through three matches, according to FOX Sports. The same model has Argentina meeting England in the semifinal and France in the final, a bracket that would pit the reigning champions against three of the tournament’s steadiest sides in succession. That path is a projection built on rankings, not a locked bracket, and Colombia still has to get past Ghana on Friday before any of it applies.
Lionel Messi’s Path Through Egypt
Emam Ashour headed home the opener for Egypt before Mohamed Hany turned a dangerous free kick into his own net, forcing extra time and, eventually, spot kicks. The Pharaohs reached the knockout stage for the first time in program history after finishing runners-up in Group G, drawing Belgium and Iran while beating New Zealand 3-1.
Argentina, meanwhile, has not lost a match all tournament. Lionel Scaloni’s group ran the table in Group J, taking down Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0 and Jordan 3-1, according to ESPN’s tournament tracker. Messi delivered a hat trick against Algeria, then broke Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup scoring record against Austria before adding a free kick against Jordan to push his career total to 19 goals, still the most in tournament history.
Argentina’s Odds in the World Cup
Nothing happens without Messi and Co. clearing Egypt first, a side that has already shown it can grind through 120 scoreless minutes and win from the spot. Mohamed Salah’s fitness looms over any Egyptian knockout run, though he featured throughout Friday’s win. The Pharaohs have never reached a World Cup quarterfinal, and Tuesday in Atlanta represents the program’s best chance yet to get there.
For Argentina, the calculus is different. La Albiceleste arrived in North America at +400 to repeat as champions, and Messi’s pursuit of a second consecutive title, at age 39, has become the tournament’s defining subplot. A comfortable path through Group J bought Scaloni’s roster rest and rotation options heading into the knockout stage, and Cape Verde presents little resistance before Egypt comes into view.
Oddsmakers, simulations and the form both sides have shown all point toward the same Tuesday matchup in Atlanta, with a quarterfinal against Colombia looming for whichever contender emerges.
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