How Frank Nazar’s confidence swings influenced his second Blackhawks season

Blackhawks forward Frank Nazar seems to rely on confidence even more than most NHL players.

When he feels confident, it’s evident. He plays assertively, aggressively and successfully, and that success builds more confidence, creating a positive snowball effect. When he doesn’t feel confident, it’s equally evident and creates a negative snowball effect.

Nazar understands those phenomena very well.

“When you’re not getting the bounces and it’s not going your way, sometimes you’re thinking, ‘Don’t shoot,’ or, ‘Is it ever going to go in?'” Nazar said Wednesday. “But just sticking to my game and continuing to shoot the puck and find open plays, win battles and outwork opponents has helped.

“When you get a goal or something like that, it gives you a big confidence boost, almost like rush of a dopamine. It makes you feel a lot better and more confident in your game.”

Looking back on Nazar’s second NHL season, the numbers reveal precisely when he felt confident and when he didn’t. He kicked it off feeling fantastic about himself, racking up 11 points in his first 10 games.

Then a pair of injuries — a knee/leg injury suffered Nov. 7 in Calgary and a broken jaw suffered Dec. 20 in Ottawa — not only cost him a combined 16 games of action but also derailed his momentum. He tallied only 13 points, including only two goals, in a 34-game span between Oct. 30 and March 2.

Then around the trade deadline, something clicked and revved him up again. He has driven much of the Hawks’ offense down the stretch. He entered Thursday with 17 points in his last 18 games, including seven multi-point games.

Luck is a factor in those hot and cold stretches, of course. The Hawks’ team shooting percentage during his five-on-five ice time has fluctuated from 15.6% to 8.2% to 12.8% in each aforementioned segment. But confidence is a major factor, too.

Adding it all up, this season represents a solid step forward for one of the Hawks’ cornerstone centers, at least in terms of basic stats. He entered Thursday with 41 total points in 62 games, up from 26 in 53 as a rookie. (Interestingly, his analytics were actually better last season.)

One habit Nazar and the Hawks have discovered indicates his confidence — and makes a big difference in his effectiveness — is how low he comes down into the defensive zone on breakouts.

“If you get up too high too early, then you end up honestly standing still, and you can’t build your speed,” coach Jeff Blashill said. “If he gets low and he’s available for the puck, he can build his speed.

“It’s all relative to where the puck is, where the puck’s going [and the] puck pressure. Is the puck going up to the wing? If you get above the winger, then you have no chance to get a bump back underneath. He’s just a guy who naturally does a pretty good job building speed through the middle of the ice.”

Considering Nazar’s skating is his most elite attribute, he can break down defenses in the neutral zone and at the offensive blue line if he has enough runway to build up speed beforehand.

“I’m not comparing myself, but guys like [Connor] McDavid get so low and then come up the ice with so much speed,” Nazar said. “They’re able to weave in and out and back teams off.”

McDavid may not be an appropriate comparison, but Nazar’s early-career production could be compared to Mammoth center Clayton Keller or Flyers winger Travis Konecny. They’re both 5-foot-10 forwards who have panned out quite well.

As the Hawks prepare for Nazar’s seven-year contract with a $6.6 million salary-cap hit to officially hit the books this summer, they would obviously love to see him continue to follow either of those trajectories.