SAN JOSE – Call it a best-of-three – three years running — between the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks.
Two years ago, the Blackhawks had some luck, jumped up two spots in the NHL Draft Lottery, won the No. 1 overall pick, and selected projected generational centerman Connor Bedard. Last year, the Sharks finished with the league’s worst record, had the best odds to win the lottery, kept the top spot, and drafted Macklin Celebrini, already on track to be a superstar in his own right.
Here they are again, and with just over three weeks left in the regular season, it’s just a matter of whether the Sharks or Blackhawks finish at the bottom of the NHL standings and have the best chance – 25.5% — of winning this year’s lottery. The Blackhawks entered this week in 31st place in the NHL’s overall standings with 51 points, four points ahead of the 32nd and last-place Sharks.
Chicago has 11 games remaining, and San Jose has 12. The team that finishes with the league’s second-worst record will have a 13.5% chance of winning the lottery.
The best player available in this year’s draft is believed to be Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who doesn’t turn 18 until September. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 183 pounds, Schaefer can singlehandedly take games over from the back end with his combination of speed, skill, and size.
“Skates really well, competes hard, plays with energy and passion,” Sharks general manager Mike Grier said of Schaefer in January. “He’s a good player, so we’ll see. I don’t think there’s a slam dunk (No. 1) guy out there. We’ll do our due diligence on all these guys.”
Other top players available include Boston College freshman James Hagens, Saginaw Spirit center Michael Misa, and Brampton Steelheads winger Porter Martone. The Sharks, in all likelihood, will grab one of them if they do not win the lottery and finish no higher than 31st overall.
The Sharks coaches and players are not concerned about draft picks right now. They want to finish what’s left of the season as strong as possible, letting the scouts and upper management worry about the draft.
“Obviously, we want to win every game we play. That’s what this sport is all about,” Sharks coach Ryan Warsofsky said earlier this month.
“I think the biggest thing is, how do we want to feel at the end (of the season)? Would we want to keep the momentum going to the future looking pretty bright, or do we want to restart this process all over again in training camp? So that’s what we have to answer.”
It’s possible, but not likely, that the Sharks or Blackhawks can move up in the standings ahead of the 29th-place Buffalo Sabres or 30th-place Nashville Predators. Entering Tuesday, the Sabres, with 62 points, were 15 points ahead of the Sharks, and the Predators were 13 points ahead.
Here’s how it looks between the Sharks and Blackhawks. Chicago owns the first tiebreaker, with 18 wins in regulation time to the Sharks’ 14.
31. Chicago Blackhawks (21-41-9, 51 points)
HOME GAMES REMAINING (6): New Jersey, Vegas, Utah, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg
ROAD (5): Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston, Montreal, Ottawa
OUTLOOK: The Blackhawks snapped a seven-game losing streak on Sunday with a 7-4 victory at home over the Philadelphia Flyers, another spiraling team. In all seven of those losses, Chicago scored two goals or fewer. But the biggest issue for the Hawks of late — actually, all year — has been keeping the puck out of their net. Since trading defenseman Seth Jones to the on March 1, Chicago has allowed 3.67 goals per game, tied for fourth most in the NHL in that time.
The Blackhawks have allowed 3.55 goals per game this season, bettering only the Sharks’ average of 3.64.
The points percentage of Chicago’s 10 remaining opponents is .578, which, per tankathon.com, is the fourth-toughest schedule in the NHL. The Blackhawks’ best hopes for a win appear to be their home games against the injury-riddled Devils on Wednesday and the Penguins on April 6. They could also earn some points away from home against Pittsburgh on April 8 and Boston on April 10, but that’s no guarantee. Chicago has a 7-24-5 road record this season.
Predicted record in remaining games: 2-8-1
Predicted final record: 23-49-10, 56 points
32. San Jose Sharks (19-42-9, 47 points)
HOME GAMES REMAINING (6): Toronto, New York Rangers, Edmonton (2x), Seattle, Calgary
ROAD (6): Los Angeles, Anaheim, Minnesota, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver
OUTLOOK: Only three of the Sharks’ last 12 losses have been by more than two goals, so they’ve done a decent job of staying in games of late, even with an overhauled roster. Still, since trading Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci on Feb. 1, the Sharks are a league-worst 4-9-3, and in that time, have allowed 3.56 goals per game, the third-highest average in the league.
The points percentage of San Jose’s nine remaining opponents before Tuesday’s games was .570, the seventh-highest in the NHL. They have two back-to-back situations left, starting with this weekend’s games against the Rangers on Saturday and in Los Angeles on Sunday.
The Sharks’ most winnable games are ones at home against the Rangers and the Kraken on April 5, plus their game in Anaheim on April 1. All other opponents are either vying for a playoff spot or a better seed in the postseason.
Predicted record in remaining games: 3-7-2
Predicted final record: 22-49-11, 55 points