Sharks trade analysis: Erik Karlsson trade to Pittsburgh bears more fruit for San Jose

The San Jose Sharks traded Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins nearly 18 months ago, and it’s continuing to bear fruit.

The Sharks have since turned that trade, and the one involving waiver claim Ty Emberson last summer, into prospect defenseman Sam Dickinson and three more picks in this year’s draft, including a first-rounder.

As part of a three-team trade in Aug. 2023 that also involved the Montreal Canadiens, the Sharks dealt Karlsson, minor league forward Dillon Hamaliuk, and a 2026 third-round pick to the Penguins and acquired Granlund, Jan Rutta, Mike Hoffman, and a 2024 first-rounder. The move also freed up $10 million in salary cap space for the Sharks until the end of the 2026-27 season, when Karlsson’s deal expires.

Hoffman was not re-signed after the 2023-2024 season, but Rutta is still on the Sharks’ roster. That first-round pick was packaged with a 2024 second-rounder to move up three spots in last year’s draft to select Dickinson, who entered Saturday third among all Ontario Hockey League defensemen with 58 points in 35 games.

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Saturday, the Sharks traded Granlund and defenseman Cody Ceci to the Dallas Stars for two picks in this year’s draft — a first-rounder and a fourth-rounder that originally belonged to the Winnipeg Jets. That fourth-rounder becomes Dallas’ third-rounder if the Stars advance to this year’s Stanley Cup Final.

The Sharks now have eight picks in this year’s draft, with more potentially coming before the March 7 trade deadline. Granlund and Ceci were among the seven pending unrestricted free agents the Sharks had before the trade, a group that still includes forwards Luke Kunin and Nico Sturm, Rutta, and goalies Alexandar Georgiev and Vitek Vanecek.

“It’s my job to look short term and long term,” Sharks general manager Mike Grier said after the trade. “Short term, this hurts our group for sure, same as when we moved (Mackenzie Blackwood), it’s a blow to them.

“But I think long term, it was the right thing to do, and it’s going to make us a better organization and a better hockey team in the long term.”

The Sharks acquired Ceci and a 2025 third-round pick from the Oilers last August for Emberson, claimed by San Jose on Sept. 30, 2023, after the New York Rangers put him on waivers. Emberson battled injuries last season and played only 30 games with the Sharks but played his 50th game with the Oilers on Saturday.

There was perhaps a time when Karlsson was thought to be untradeable. Karlsson had a huge salary cap hit — $11.5 million — in a flat-cap era, battled some injuries, was inconsistent, and was on the wrong side of 30.

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But the 2022-23 season changed everything. Not only did Karlsson find the fountain of youth with a 101-point season, which resulted in him winning his third Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman, but the Sharks’ hockey operations department had a new leader in Grier, who had a plan to rebuild the team from the ground up. The cap also increased last offseason, from $83.5 million to $88 million.

Before the Karlsson deal, Grier traded Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Brent Burns to the Carolina Hurricanes and top-scoring winger Timo Meier to the New Jersey Devils. Last March, just before the trade deadline, the Sharks sent forward Tomas Hertl to the Vegas Golden Knights.

Each deal either freed up cap space for the Sharks or netted draft picks and prospects.

That trend continued on Saturday. While Grier knew what Granlund and Ceci were looking for in their next contracts, they likely did not fit into the Sharks’ long-term plans.

“We’re trying to build this thing,” Grier said. “You have assets. You have things you need to do to kind of push things forward and give yourself the best opportunity to be successful down the road.

“We are where we are in the standings. The group plays hard, they compete hard. Sometimes people’s success and the player’s success doesn’t line up with the timeline that we have to be to be a more competitive hockey team.”

The Sharks entered Saturday in 32nd and last place in the NHL’s overall standings, and without Granlund and Ceci, they will likely not be making a surprise charge up the ladder. The pick they got from Dallas and their own selections will likely give the Sharks three picks in the top 33 or 34 overall in this summer’s draft.

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The Sharks could also use that draft pick to move up in the draft or acquire a player who might help the team sooner rather than later — like they did last summer when they acquired goalie Yaroslav Askarov from the Nashville Predators. In that deal, the Sharks sent center David Edstrom and a 2025 first-rounder, which they received in the Hertl deal, to Nashville to help acquire Askarov.

Whatever happens, the Sharks are likely not done moving pieces around.

“I’m going to keep my options open and be open-minded about any possibilities for our players,” Grier said. “If we think it makes sense to move someone, whether that’s (Kunin) or anyone else, we’ve just got to weigh it, talk through it, and if it makes sense, we’ll see what’s out there. But right now, it’s just keeping an open mind and kind of see what comes our way.”

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