Oh, the drama.
In the lead-up to the March 2 Oscars telecast there have been a slew of awards season shocks, twists and surprises, and we’re not talking about what’s up on the screen. Things have gotten almost as wild and unpredictable as a potboiler like “Gone Girl.”
At the vortex of it all is Netflix’s over-hyped “Emilia Pérez,” a misguided mess that Hollywood and, in turn, the Academy latched on to and showered 13 nominations — for some reason. It continued to gain momentum — a crucial element in ensuring an Oscar sweep — and seemed unstoppable. Then a series or scurrilous social media posts from “Emilia Pérez” star Karla Sofía Gascó — the first transgender actress to ever be nominated and a favorite in the lead actress category — resurfaced and just about everything went kablooey. Rather than simply apologize, she did some interviews and tried to do a bit of explaining. Didn’t go well. At all.
That led to her being disavowed by nearly everyone associated with “Perez,” and the controversy opened the door to other nominees, including the far more deserving Demi Moore along with indie auteur Sean Baker and his firecracker of a movie “Anora,” to emerge as major contenders for Oscar gold.
But can Baker’s hard-R film about a sex worker and Moore’s gross-out body-horror film actually triumph? We have thoughts about those and other key categories. All will be revealed and unveiled starting at 4 p.m. March 2 on ABC at the 97th Academy Awards ceremony. Conan O’Brien is serving as this year’s host, and we’re betting Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively might just sit this one out (but their names might just come up in the opening monologue).
Cable subscribers can also watch it on the ABC app, and the ceremony will also be streamed live on Hulu, YouTubeTV, AT&T TV and FuboTV.
Here are our thoughts on who and what will win — and should win — at what should be a compelling awards ceremony.
Best Picture
Nominees: “Anora”; “The Brutalist”; “A Complete Unknown”; “Conclave”; “Dune: Part 2”; “Emilia Perez”; “I’m Still Here”; “Nickel Boys”; “The Substance”; “Wicked”
What will win: Due to the aforementioned developments this one’s tricky to predict. Let’s try anyway. Stripped down to its essentials, “Anora” is a racy screwball rom-com with naughty bits and complex characters with voices we don’t often hear raised or expressed. Oscar sadly is too prim and proper to reward its raw sexuality. “The Brutalist” (all 3 hours and 35 minutes of it) sprawls out all over the big screen, but let’s face it, after the welcome intermission it fell into a number of plot potholes and an ending that just doesn’t work. “A Complete Unknown,” about Bob Dylan’s early years, plucks nostalgic chords for a key Oscar voter demographic. But it was hardly a daring harmonic convergence of creativity and style. “Dune: Part 2” is a sci-fi epic. Repeat after me. “Dune: Part 2” is a sci-fi epic. The awards mantelpiece for sci-fi epics remains as barren as the planet Arrakis.
“Emilia Pérez” is one hot mess, mistaking energy for competence. It’s also loaded down with enough baggage to sink the Titanic — again. “I’m Still Here” is dignified, elegant and powerful, but it’s just simmering away unnoticed on the backburner. History will be kind to the game-changing “Nickel Boys,” but its POV approach was too unconventional; Oscar has a proven track record of rewarding the traditional not the upstart. While “The Substance” remains one of my favorite films of last year, I bet a number of voters fled in holy terror when gooey body parts started falling off Demi Moore. And, sorry to throw a bucket of cold water on the chances of Jon M. Chu’s delightful “Wicked” winning, but as enjoyable as that long musical was, it was only a Part 1. Tighten it up, next time, already. So that leaves “Conclave,” a mannered, self-important, chew-the scenery ensemble pic about the chew-the-scenery selection of a new pope. It played it safe and delivered a Hail Mary of a twist ending that approximates a vague sense of its faux daring, even if that said “twist” needed more development. It has Oscar bait written all over it even if it doesn’t deserve the win.
What should win: It’s a toss-up: “Nickel Boys” or “Anora.” In an era where more compassion and empathy are so desperately needed this very instant, director RaMell Ross’ masterpiece about two Black teens enduring Jim Crow-era racism but still finding joy in life, and director Sean Baker’s masterpiece about a sex worker falling in love the hard way with an unexpected someone effortlessly, effectively achieved that and much more. Both improve with multiple viewings. Others in this category don’t.
Best Actress
Nominees: Demi Moore, “The Substance”; Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”; Mikey Madison, “Anora”; Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”; Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Who will win: Erivo belted it out of the musical park but I’m convinced her best is yet to come. Madison took ownership of the screen better than anyone else besides Marianne Jean-Baptiste (insanely overlooked for Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths”) but she hasn’t been around as long as the other nominees. Early in the game, Gascón looked like she had it all locked up — even if she’s a supporting player not a lead — until ugly tweets resurfaced and killed her chance to make history. Torres gave such a polished, understated performance as a mother keeping it all together as her world turned more dangerous. Not her year. It will be Moore. She went full bore into the role of an aging fitness star who gets a new lease on a younger life in a radically feminist body horror film that made everyone queasy. It’s a redemptive performance for an actor that Hollywood and critics alike dismissed, overlooked and sometimes derided. Not anymore.
Who should win: Madison. Without her, “Anora” would not be in the running, let alone a favorite.
Best Actor
Nominees: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”; Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”; Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”; Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”; Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Who will win: Chalamet brushed off criticism he wasn’t the right fit to play a music icon. But his performance is rather one note. As a talented man placed behind bars for the no good reason, Domingo gave us a glimpse into the soul of a person aching to be finally free. It was sheer brilliance. Fiennes committed few big sins — except for a couple outbursts of overacting — in his portrayal of a cardinal overseeing the selection of a new pope. Hardly a slam-dunk turn. Stan continues to show wide range as an actor; his dead-on-perfect Donald Trump was no mere impersonation. But Brody gave both a physical and emotional performance as a Hungarian Jew who emigrates and gets caught up in the web of the American dream and a nightmare project overseen by a creepy American entrepreneur. He’s a lock.
Who should win: Domingo. Unjustly passed over last year in this same category for his fiery portrayal of gay civil rights figure Bayard Rustin, the former East Bay powerhouse is equally deserving to win for this phenomenal performance in a beautiful film too few saw. Just watch that scene when he goes in front of the parole board. No one could play it better. No one.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”; Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”; Ariana Grande, “Wicked”; Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”; Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Who will win: Bay Area native Barbaro did a fine job as Joan Baez. “Fine jobs” don’t win Oscars, though. Jones’ character was underdeveloped and left us asking more questions about her after “The Brutalist” ended. Doesn’t stand a chance. Grande was one of the brightest surprises as the vapid but not entirely heartless Glinda. She could win since “Wicked” was so popular. I doubt it. Rossellini has never won an Oscar, but her wisp of a “Conclave” role is getting eclipsed by the work of others who did a lot more heavy lifting than she did. Saldaña was the best thing about the scattered, over-hyped “Pérez.” Expect her to sing and dance away with the trophy — even if she’s in the wrong category (let’s face it, she is the lead actress of that film).
Who should win: Saldaña. She upstaged everyone in “Pérez,” including its director.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Yura Borisov, “Anora”; Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”; Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”; Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”; Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Who will win: If Madison provided the jet fuel for “Anora,” Borisov — as the protective hired wrangler who crushes hard on her — was the soulful center of Baker’s film. His performance was full of understatements, and is too understated to win. Norton gave a solid performance as musician Pete Seeger, but the role and his performance fades from memory about two days after seeing the only-OK “A Complete Unknown.” As a brutal American with money to burn on a mammoth Brutalist structure, Pearce channeled an ugly American better than most. As mentor to a nascent entrepreneur and future president, Strong gave us a cursed Roy Cohn who grew more shocked about his apprentice. He’s the long shot. But it’s pretty much a no-contest win for Culkin, who was terrific as the messed-up, gregarious cousin who’s lugging around a terrible burden of historical hurt while on trip to Poland. But let’s be honest: It wasn’t that much of a stretch for the Emmy winner.
Who should win: Borisov. He not only smolders onscreen but gives that firecracker of a film its emotional stability.
Best Director
Nominees: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”; Sean Baker, “Anora”; Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”; James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”; Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Who will win: Audiard substituted flash for emotional depth, and that made us disconnect to Perez’s story. Other contenders are far more deserving. Corbet accomplished an impressive feat, but upon closer inspection there were some fault lines showing in “The Brutalist’s” narrative foundation. Mangold’s non-fussy treatment of a slice of Dylan history was enjoyable but slight. Fargeat is the dark horse, and could become the shock of the night given how much there is to admire about a movie that stuck true to its sicko intentions from first frame to the last. But my money’s on Baker, one of the world’s finest filmmakers who tells stories about characters Hollywood so often turns into cliches and leaves behind. After years of making great indies, it’s his time up at that podium.
Who should win: Baker. From that amazingly choreographed and edited extended brawl in a house to that closing intimate shot in a car, Baker was in full command of every second of his wild, joy ride.