(Bloomberg / Carmen Reinicke) — Nvidia Corp. investors used to big announcements and equally large stock gains during the company’s week-long GTC conference were left wanting this go around. With few near-term catalysts and shares at a key technical level that often signals losses, market watchers are warning of more disappointment ahead.
The chipmaker’s shares are down more than 2% early Friday, putting the stock on pace to end the week down more than 4%, after Chief Executive Jensen Huang’s keynote speech Tuesday failed to inject the kind of optimism needed to get the artificial-intelligence trade back on track. The stock is down 13% year-to-date and on Thursday its 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day average, forming a bearish “death cross” pattern. The last time it occurred in April 2022, shares tumbled more than 30% over the next two months.
“It’s got a lot of negative momentum,” said Larry Tentarelli, founder and chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “Nvidia is a very difficult chart.”
Concerns about future spending on artificial intelligence sparked by China’s DeepSeek, along with an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariff and trade-war threats, have weighed on Nvidia and its megacap technology peers in recent months. An index tracking the so-called magnificent seven big tech companies is down more than 15% this year.
The snag comes despite still-solid fundamentals from the company and one of the lowest price-to-earnings ratios seen in years. Investors are waiting for more clarity that the growth Nvidia has promised, including a jump in first-quarter revenue to $43 billion, will indeed come to fruition.
In the broader AI trade, investors are looking for a more tangible return on investment — which would perhaps boost confidence that high spending levels will continue — before buying other beaten down megacap technology stocks.
“What the market is saying with Nvidia is, ‘we’re concerned about the economy, we’re concerned about DeepSeek,’” said Tentarelli, adding that if any of the hyperscalers were to signal they’re slowing AI spending they’ve pledged this year, it could spell trouble for chipmakers.
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Another issue confronting Nvidia investors is that after GTC, there are few catalysts to potentially boost the stock in the coming weeks. That makes the macroeconomic backdrop even more important.
“The catalyst will probably come more broadly,” said Richard Ross, Evercore ISI’s head of technical analysis. He pointed to April 2, when Trump has said his administration will levy reciprocal tariffs on foreign trading parters, as a key date to watch.
Ross said he’s less concerned with the death cross pattern because Nvidia shares have been trading in a range for some time, which makes technical analysis that relies on trends less useful.
The signal isn’t “giving us new information technically about Nvidia,” he said. “It shouldn’t make you feel worse about your bull call or better about your bear call.”
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Earnings Due Friday
- No major earnings expected
–With assistance from Subrat Patnaik and Wojciech Moskwa.
(Updates stock moves at market open)
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