The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Do you see any scenario where the Big East and the Pac-12 merge into one conference? — @jimmy0726
That combination is not on the Hotline’s conference consolidation bingo card.
Mergers are incredibly complex and must work on multiple levels for the universities in both conferences. The Pac-12/Big East pairing doesn’t fit geographically. It doesn’t work competitively, because there’s only one FBS school in the Big East (UConn). And it certainly doesn’t work institutionally, with all the large, public schools in the rebuilt Pac-12 and the small, private schools in the Big East.
The Hotline’s most likely merger scenarios are below, with the following caveat: Nothing is imminent.
In fact, we do not expect the next realignment wave to strike until the late 2020s, when the Big Ten prepares for its next media rights contract cycle (beginning in the summer of 2030) and must consider additional members to increase its negotiating leverage.
Until then, the only conferences with media contracts to sign are the Pac-12 and the Mountain West, which need new deals for 2026.
Our merger scenarios for the next decade:
No. 1: ACC and Big 12
This is easy to see. If the SEC and Big Ten expand again, the schools excluded could form a massive league, perhaps with a few members of the American Athletic Conference or the rebuilt Pac-12. (Longtime readers might recall that we wrote about this possibility in the fall of 2022.)
And if the theorized super league emerges in the 2030s, a similar outcome could unfold, perhaps with schools currently in the SEC and Big Ten that don’t make the cut.
No. 2 ACC and Big East
There is plenty of chatter currently about this pairing, and it works on several levels — especially if Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina eventually leave the ACC.
At that point, a giant, basketball-focused conference might offer the best value proposition, because what remains of the ACC would be devoid of football brands.
No. 3: Pac-12 and American
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume the Pac-12 does not poach some combination of Memphis, Tulane and USF before July ’26.
Longer term, a merger makes loads of sense given their comparable media valuations and status as the best non-Power Four football conferences.
At the very least, they should be exploring a scheduling alliance that would offer broadcast windows across all four time zones. (The opportunities for schools in both leagues to play Power Four opponents could dwindle if the SEC and Big Ten sign agree to an in-season series.)
No. 4: Mountain West and Conference USA
Assuming the Mountain West survives legal challenges on two fronts and emerges as a stable, viable conference in 2026 and beyond, an alliance or merger with C-USA is the best fit.
We cannot see the American or Pac-12 agreeing to partner with either league, for a variety of reasons.
That said, an all-or-nothing outcome is the most likely endgame. Either there are multiple mergers below the SEC-Big Ten level, or there are none.
Assuming Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina bolt the ACC to become founding members of the super league, how best to attract top brands to join? Could the ACC adopt Major League Baseball’s model with schools allowed to sign their own TV deals? — @TerryTerry79
ESPN’s decision to extend the ACC’s media deal through 2036 seemingly means the conference will remain intact in the near future. But if a super league emerges prior to that point, those three schools would receive invitations.
(They would also be candidates to join the Big Ten or SEC in the event conference realignment unfolds instead of a super league.)
Without that trio, the ACC’s competitive standard and media value would plummet — to the point that we aren’t sure the conference would survive in order to attract new members.
Maybe its schools would scatter to the winds, as we saw with the Pac-12.
Maybe a merger with the Big 12 or Big East would unfold.
It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which the league survives and attracts schools that could command more media dollars by selling their rights individually than binding them together at scale.
I know the lawsuit for the “poaching penalties” is set for March 25. Will that hearing include the “exit fees” case Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State filed against the Mountain West? — Lori M
There are, in fact, two lawsuits, with the Mountain West as the defendant in both.
In September, the Pac-12 filed antitrust claims over the legality of the poaching penalties — the $55 million (for five schools) written into the schedule agreement.
In December, Utah State and Colorado State took the conference to court over the exit fees, with Boise State eventually joining as the third plaintiff.
Generally speaking, the ultimate goal in both was to drag the Mountain West into lengthy, costly court proceedings and cut a deal for less than the contracts require.
The hearing on March 25 in the Northern District of California is related only to the poaching penalty case — specifically, it’s about the Mountain West’s motion to dismiss, which was filed in November. We expect the court to deny the motion and allow the Pac-12’s lawsuit to move forward.
If the two sides agree to mediation, the hearing could get postponed.
If the Pac-12 agrees to mediation, would that be an acknowledgement that they owe the poaching fee and want to reduce it? If the conference believes the poaching penalty is invalid, it should go to court to fight it, correct? –@NateJones2009
You could view the mediation news from Thursday from that perspective, sure. But it could also be taken as the Mountain West acknowledging the illegality of the poaching penalty, since it made the first move by reaching out to the Pac-12 about mediation.
The Hotline prefers a slightly more detached view: For both, a settlement is better than losing.
And don’t forget that university presidents want no part of court trials (or the discovery process, for that matter). Once the Pac-12 began legal proceedings, a settlement was, by far, the likeliest outcome.
Any amount owed by the Pac-12 that’s less than the $55 million stipulated in the contract would constitute a savings and, therefore, victory.
Our hunch is the Pac-12 has the stronger case — that there’s hard evidence both conferences knew the poaching penalty was illegal before finalizing the scheduling contract (in Dec. 2023).
And if that’s true, the Pac-12 seemingly would have enough leverage to drive down the settlement amount.
There is more at stake for the Mountain West because of the financial promises made by commissioner Gloria Nevarez to UNLV and Air Force.
The new Big Ten-SEC proposal for the College Football Playoff shifts the power to their conferences. Does this finally push Notre Dame into a conference. And if it’s the Big Ten, does this make them form a super league? — Will D
The proposed changes for the CFP starting in 2026 will have the opposite effect, further justifying Notre Dame’s status as an Independent.
If the event expands to 14, the Irish likely would be guaranteed a berth as long as they finish in the top-14 of the final rankings. Essentially, they would be a lock for the playoff at 10-2 and on the bubble at 9-3. That’s more than worth preserving their unaffiliated football status.
What’s more, the ACC is reconfiguring its schedule agreement with Notre Dame to create more matchups between the Irish and Clemson and Florida State — a move that benefits ESPN and improves Notre Dame’s schedule strength.
Financially, the revenue guaranteed to Notre Dame in the next edition of the CFP (reportedly $12 million annually) is equivalent to what ACC schools will receive.
Every move the conferences and the CFP make provide the Irish with more incentive to remain right where they are.
With conference tournaments starting, I find the Big Ten’s format interesting. Only allowing 15 of the 18 to participate creates interest for the bottom of the league, since no one wants to be left out. Do you think these relegation-type formats will drive more viewership in college sports? — @Wazzucoug1996
The ACC is using the same approach, with 15 of its 17 teams advancing to the conference tournament.
Although the format creates intrigue at the bottom of the standings for the final weeks of the regular season, the desire for 15 teams is rooted in the twin goals of providing the top-four seeds with double byes (into the quarterfinals) and keeping the event to five days.
And subjectively, if a team can’t crack the top 15, it doesn’t deserve the chance to play for the conference championship. Nobody will complain the bottom three are being treated unfairly.
Could the format generate incrementally more interest in a few late-season games involving the bottom feeders? Perhaps. But this was not a move made with TV ratings and media valuation in mind.
That said, the concept of relegation/promotion is under consideration across college sports, largely as it might pertain to any football super league in the 2030s.
The format could work with 70 or 80 schools in the super league — yes, the working models proposed by outside entities include that many members — and 50 on a second tier.
Our view: Relegation/promotion would work much better if the super league were limited to 30 or 40 teams.
To the extent that this is the case, why would New Mexico be reticent to have New Mexico State join the Mountain West? Is it competition in recruiting? Or that the program doesn’t bring enough to the conference? –Mark F
We have not confirmed that’s the case, but it would make sense on several levels, starting with the competitive aspect.
Granting NMSU membership in the Mountain West would elevate the Aggies’ brand to the same level as New Mexico, which isn’t optimal for the Lobos.
Also, NMSU’s low media value — pennies on the dollar — would likely dilute the revenue shares for New Mexico and all the continuing members of the Mountain West.
Add NMSU’s poor academic reputation and recent scandals that forced the school to shut down its basketball program for the final month of the 2023 season and, well, it’s fairly clear why the Lobos would not want to share conferences with the Aggies.
Do you miss the old Pac-12? — @MrEd315
I miss the rivalries and the passion they evoke across the region.
Yes, the natural rivalries have been preserved with the breakup of the conference. The Arizona schools are together in the Big 12, the L.A. schools are paired in the Big Ten, and the Bay Area schools joined the ACC. And fortunately, the Washington and Oregon schools have maintained their in-state rivalries despite the separations.
But the Hotline greatly enjoyed USC’s biannual trips to Tucson, for example, or the UCLA-Cal series, or even the Oregon-Utah duels.
For the most part, conference games played under the new membership structures feel like non-conference matchups. They don’t have the same regional flavor that, in our view, is essential to the college sports experience.
When media personalities make weekly guest appearances on podcasts or radio shows, is that entirely a freelance gig that’s independent from your employers? If so, do the guest speakers usually get paid handsomely? — @CelestialMosh
I can’t speak for other “media personalities” but will tell you that appearing on radio shows and podcasts is generally part of the job. My philosophy is to accept as many requests as possible if the timing works for my schedule, mostly out of professional courtesy and reciprocity.
I have three standing appearances.
On Tuesdays, I join ‘Softy and Dick‘ on KJR in Seattle. Simply Seattle is gracious enough to sponsor the segment, so there’s a small amount of compensation involved.
The other two are tied to the Hotline’s syndication partnerships in Arizona: On Mondays with Brad Cesmat at Sports360az.com — it’s a video conversation geared to the hottest regional and national topics — and on Thursdays with ‘Spears and Ali‘ on ESPN Tucson.
Everything else, including spots on Sirius XM and Finebaum, is basically done if the timing works, and it usually does.
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