A reversal from last week’s weather is on tap for the Bay Area this week, with the key change being that the rain and cold will break from the starter’s gate only to be replaced sun and ever-increasing warmth down the stretch.
“It’s dry on Wednesday,” National Weather Service meteorologist Karleisa Rogacheski said. “And that’s when the warming trend is beginning. And that warming trend will last at least through the weekend.”
It won’t be the Bay Area’s first brush with spring warmth. Single-day heat records fell early last week during an all-too-brief 48-hour period that embodied spring warmth.
This time, the extreme weather is on the other side of the spectrum. Rogacheski said steady showers — mostly light but occasionally heavy — will fall on and off for much of Monday before a several-hours-long lull. Then on Tuesday, it’s likely rain will fall sporadically, again, she said.
New to the latest rain in the pattern is that temperatures will fall low enough and the air is unstable enough that thunderstorms and small hail could fall each day, Rogacheski said. When and where are at best an educated guest because they will emerge from isolated storm cells that break off from what she called the storm’s “broken line” and “uneven” path.
“The main pattern isn’t even that organized right now,” she said.
The chance for the isolated thunderstorms and hail is a light one, according to the weather service. The path where those storms most likely would happen runs from Santa Rosa in the north to Paso Robles in the south to Discovery Bay in the east.
That pattern also has created a winter storm warning for the Lake Tahoe area and northeastern California through 11 p.m. Tuesday.
The most rain in the 24-hour period ending at 8 a.m. Monday fell in Saint Helena in Napa County and Mt. Umunhum in Santa Cruz County, which received about three-quarters of an inch. Between one-third and one-quarter of an inch fell in other areas of Santa Cruz County and in Marin County, and between one-tenth and .15 inches fell in Contra Costa and Alameda counties. San Jose Mineta International Airport recorded four-hundredths of an inch, pacing the lower elevations of the South Bay.
The dry-out begins sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday, and it will stay that way at least through the weekend, Rogacheski said. Temperatures likely still will be chilly on Wednesday but the highs will move back into the 60s. They’ll move gradually up the scale until they hit the low 70s in some areas by Saturday.
“It’s what most people would consider nice weather,” Rocacheski said, “especially if you’re looking to get out for the weekend.”