Gov. Gavin Newsom has steadfastly denied any interest in becoming president for as long as he’s been in office, but any California governor becomes a presidential possibility from the moment of being elected, like it or not.
That’s what an almost automatic 54 electoral votes will do for (or to) you when you’re in the top office of this almost nation-state, one that’s used to making its own policies on energy and the environment, abortion and just about anything else you can mention. That even includes foreign policy, for which California, though it has signed no treaties with other countries and large foreign provinces, has plenty of “memoranda of understanding.”
Now, for the first time in his almost 30 years in politics, Newsom may have a clear path to seek national office without having to contest against a stablemate. That’s what he and outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris have been since both began as proteges of former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, with Newsom usually making way for Harris.
Those days are done, though. The national electorate has told Harris it won’t elect her president, even when her party’s nomination is handed to her without so much as winning a single primary election or caucus. For some, Newsom has been already leading the opposition to President-elect Donald Trump months before Trump assumes office.
That was one reason for his calling a special November-December session of the Legislature to push through methods and funding to counter Trump’s outspoken threats against California. These include withholding federal relief funds after wildfires and earthquakes, trying to restrict or countermand California’s abortion availability, mass deportations of undocumented immigrants (without many of whom California’s economy would likely be in shambles due to labor shortages) and countermanding California climate policies that have steadily improved the state’s air quality since the 1970s.
Unlike any other potential 2028 presidential contender, Newsom long ago made himself into a bit of a national Democratic spokesperson. He campaigned in more states than anyone else for the now-departing President Joe Biden before Biden handed the nomination over to Harris. He debated California-baiting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on network television. He set pandemic policies for California that were widely copied elsewhere.
No other Democratic prospect today has his prominence. Trump tacitly acknowledges this by making Newsom the only Democratic governor to whom he applies one of his trademark derogatory nicknames: “New-scum.”
All this sets up Newsom for a 2028 run of his own, even though that future is a bit cloudy, since Trump during his campaign steadfastly evaded answering when asked if he would cede power peacefully when his second term ends in early 2029. His vigorous efforts to stay on after being voted out in 2000 resulted in a recently abandoned prosecution, and no one knows how the nation would respond to a second effort to stay on beyond his time limit.
Had Harris won in November, Newsom would now face a political dead end, with California’s two Senate seats fully occupied until at least 2028 and no possibility of seeking a third term as governor. The soonest he could have run for president would have been 2032, and even then, it’s doubtful America would elect two consecutive San Francisco liberals. Now Newsom gets to move on, though, while Harris is likely sidelined. Rejected last November, she could not assert any supposed right to insist that Newsom step aside for her.
He will never say so, but in a way, all this makes the 2024 election outcome almost ideal for Newsom. He scores points with Democrats nationally every time Trump insults him. He will have the last two years of his term to establish a record of resisting Trump at every turn, successful or not. He will also have an opportunity to address state Democratic Party conventions all over the country if he likes.
Once his term in Sacramento ends, he can campaign for two years without interruption or other duties. It’s almost a perfect script for a would-be president, very similar to what fellow Californian Ronald Reagan experienced between 1976 and 1980, when he was first elected to the top national office.
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com, and read more of his columns online at californiafocus.net.