As avian flu scrambles the nationwide egg supply, Bay Area consumers face limited availability of the breakfast staple, with shortages expected to persist until mid-2025, according to U.S. agriculture officials.
Some supermarkets in the region report empty shelves, while others are rationing purchases to ensure eggs remain available to all customers.
Since early November, avian flu has led to the loss or culling of more than 6.5 million egg-laying hens across the country, including 2.5 million in California—nearly 40% of the total losses nationwide, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture.
Earlier this week, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to bolster the state’s response to the outbreak.
While the risk of human infection remains low, the virus is now widespread among wild birds and can be spread to other animal species, including cows. It is currently affecting nearly half of California’s dairy farms.
The reduced egg supply has already increased prices and limited egg availability.
The Food Marketing Institute reported an 8.2% increase in egg prices in November compared to the same period last year.
United States Department of Agriculture data shows wholesale egg prices averaging $3.95 per dozen in the fourth quarter, up from $3.17 in the third quarter.
Coupled with limited supply, part of the acceleration in prices is due to increased demand over the holidays.
“The cookie baking demand season for eggs is in full swing and runs a close second to the Thanksgiving season,” the department said in a statement.
The USDA says relief from the egg shortage will come slowly in 2025.
“It is expected that egg production will rebound, particularly in the second half of the year, as flocks are rebuilt,” an agency spokesperson said in an email to Bay Area News Group.
Looking ahead, the USDA projects egg production will rise by about 3% in 2025 compared to 2024, easing prices. The average price next year is expected to drop to $2.30 per dozen, with first-quarter prices averaging $2.95 per dozen.
The state says it is actively working to limit the spread of avian flu by collaborating with farmers and ranchers on biosecurity measures.
These measures include quarantining infected farms, culling affected flocks, and halting the movement of poultry and related products from infected areas. Protective zones have been established for unaffected regions, with poultry farms in these areas undergoing multiple weekly tests.
Most of California’s eggs come from Southern California and the Central Valley, with key production hubs in San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties, according to California Foundation for Agriculture in the Classroom.
Weber Family Farms in Petaluma —located in what was once known as the “egg basket of the world”— has been hit hard by the outbreak. Mike Weber, the farm’s co-owner, said entire flocks have been culled, and while they are working to rebuild, full production is months away.
“We need rapid testing… the most strategic thing anybody can do is vaccinations,” Weber said.
In November 2023, avian influenza swept through Sonoma County’s historic poultry region, leading to the culling of over 1 million birds.
Weber said most of his farm’s eggs are consumed in the Bay Area, though their products are sold throughout the state. He expects production to return to full capacity by March, provided the virus remains contained.
“Our production is at 93% because we still have a building that’s empty,” Weber said. “We won’t have birds in there until March, once they’re raised.”
Until farms are able to return egg production to normal, some grocery stores are taking steps to make sure there is enough supply for everyone and prevent hoarding.
Raley’s is limiting purchases to one carton per customer at all locations. “We have inventory but will continue to assess and adjust as necessary,” a Raley’s spokesperson said.
Save Mart is taking a similar approach, restricting purchases to two cartons per customer.
“The Save Mart Companies has a list of suppliers that are working to provide safe, quality products so that we can continue to serve the needs of our shoppers,” the company said in a statement. “The egg shortage is nationwide, so we are asking customers to limit their purchases to ensure we have enough for everyone.”
This news organization has also observed egg shortages at Bay Area locations of Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, and Safeway. However, representatives from these companies have not responded to requests for comment.
Following the bird flu state of emergency, Weber urges the government to allocate additional funding for avian flu testing to effectively contain the outbreak and prevent further disruptions to the egg supply and other food products.
“(The labs) desperately need more resources,” Weber said. “They need people, they need money.”