The little guys, to the extent they can be considered little, are teetering.
SMU was beaten decisively by Penn State, Clemson couldn’t handle Texas, and the ACC went 0-2 in the College Football Playoff.
Now comes the Big 12’s turn. Its lone participant, Arizona State, is a double-digit underdog against the Longhorns in the Peach Bowl.
It’s easy to see where this is headed, both this week and over the long haul:
If the Sun Devils get run off the field Wednesday morning, the lesser members of the Power Four will have lost much more than three playoff games. They will have relinquished what little leverage they possess in upcoming CFP negotiations.
The current playoff format expires after next season, leaving a blank slate for the fall of 2026 and beyond.
The next version could have 12 teams or 14 teams.
It could have a load of automatic bids or a paucity of them.
There could be ample room for the Big 12 and ACC … or limited space.
Discussions are expected to begin next month when the CFP’s management committee (i.e., the conference commissioners) gathers in Atlanta for the national championship game.
One possibility — a distinct possibility, in fact — is the eventual creation of a revised format that grants either three or four automatic bids to both the SEC and Big Ten and one automatic bid to both the ACC and Big 12.
Weak showings by the lesser members of the Power Four will undermine their case to equity in access to the next edition. The ACC has already rolled over in head-to-head matchups against the Big Ten and SEC. Now comes the Big 12’s chance.
Arizona State is the last team standing, the last chance to establish competitive balance.
If the Sun Devils experience the same fate as SMU and Clemson — if the Big 12 champion loses by multiple touchdowns to the SEC runner-up on the playoff stage — the implications could far exceed the result of a single game.
To the picks …
Season: 72-58-2
Five-star special: 9-7
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from VegasInsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Boise State (+10.5) vs. Penn State (Fiesta Bowl)
Kickoff: Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: This isn’t quite the mismatch at the line of scrimmage that many foresee, and Ashton Jeanty is a threat to score from anywhere (as he did against Oregon in Week 2). The central issue for the Broncos is keeping quarterback Maddux Madsen comfortable and in rhythm. Without the threat of an aerial game, they will struggle to move the ball consistently against an elite defensive front loaded to contain Jeanty. Pick: Penn State
Arizona State (+12.5) vs. Texas (Peach Bowl)
Kickoff: Wednesday at 10 a.m. on ESPN
Comment: Which team imposes its will up front? Texas gashed Clemson for 292 rushing yards, but ASU’s defense has been stout against the run all season (27th nationally in yards-per-game allowed). The same issue holds when possession is flipped: Will ASU tailback Cam Skattebo have consistent success against a UT run defense that allows just 104 yards per game? This should be tight deep into the fourth quarter, with ASU covering easily and potentially winning. Pick: Arizona State
Oregon (+2.5) vs. Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
Kickoff: Wednesday at 2 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The marquee matchup of the quarterfinals is a semi-classic Granddaddy, with a traditional Big Ten power against a legacy Pac-12 team that just happens to be the Big Ten champion and No. 1 overall seed. Oregon won the first matchup by one point in Eugene. (Add three points for the neutral field and you end up with the current betting line.) The Buckeyes have improved more since mid-October than the Ducks and possess a slightly higher ceiling — at their very best, they are untouchable. But as we have seen, Ohio State also has a much lower floor. Pick: Oregon
Notre Dame (+1.5) vs. Georgia (Sugar Bowl)
Kickoff: Wednesday at 5:45 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: All eyes are on Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, who makes his first career start in place of the injured Carson Beck. The Irish are stout on the lines of scrimmage, as usual. But this edition has more big-play capability than Notre Dame’s previous CFP teams, which were often overmatched against SEC powerhouses. That said, we expect the Bulldogs to rise to the occasion on both sides of scrimmage and compensate for Beck’s absence. Pick: Georgia
Straight-up winners: Penn State, Texas, Oregon and Georgia
Five-star special: Georgia. Stockton had the second half of the SEC championship game and three weeks of practice to prepare. He won’t hold the Bulldogs back.
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