Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
October is upon us, and every team in the Power Four is alive in the College Football Playoff race thanks to the expanded, 12-team event.
Well, not everyone. Florida State is toast. And a few others, as well.
But the vast majority of teams in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC have a path, however narrow it might be, into the CFP.
That was the goal, after all.
The move from the four-team invitational to the 12-team tournament, complete with automatic bids for conference champs and at-large spots of the next-best teams, increased access by an order of magnitude.
More teams with pathways means more games with significance throughout October and November.
For example: Texas Tech’s visit to Arizona this weekend.
Under the four-team model, the Red Raiders’ blowout loss at Washington State and the Wildcats’ meek showing at Kansas State would have effectively ended their CFP chances before the close of September.
But with the Big 12 champ guaranteed a berth and both teams undefeated in conference play, the stakes are significant for the visitor and the host alike.
In fact, the losing team will remain alive in the CFP race despite having two defeats overall before the midpoint of October. Win the conference and you’re in.
The impact of playoff expansion on the sport is too great to quantify. Also, it’s everywhere you look.
To the projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.
No. 1 Texas (SEC). This could be Alabama, Georgia or even Tennessee. Look for the SEC champ to receive the top seed unless it has one loss and Ohio State is undefeated.
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten). The middle third of the season is the toughest stretch for the Buckeyes, who play Iowa and Nebraska at home and Oregon and Penn State on the road.
No. 3 Miami (ACC). We thought about pegging Clemson as the ACC champ after the Hurricanes’ great escape against Virginia Tech. Either way, the conference winner will receive the No. 3 or 4 seed.
No. 4 Utah (Big 12). Our faith in the Utes remains strong despite the loss to Arizona — as long as Cam Rising returns after the bye week.
No. 12 Boise State (Group of Five). The Broncos took a significant step toward the CFP bid with their impressive victory over Washington State.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: Clemson. Two things, equally true: The Tigers have improved since the Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia; and their remaining schedule is somewhat soft.
Big 12: Iowa State. Beware the undefeated Cyclones, either in the at-large pool or as the Big 12 champ. Their last two games, against Utah and Kansas State, loom large.
Big Ten: Oregon and Penn State. Win the games they should win, and both teams will qualify for the at-large pool. But one bad loss will slice their margin-for-error down to nothing.
SEC: Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. We jettisoned Mississippi after its loss to Kentucky and, for the first time in weeks, are projecting only four SEC teams for the CFP (the champion plus three at-large teams).
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Louisville. The loss to Notre Dame left the Cardinals with precious few chances to secure the quality win they will need to make a case for the at-large pool.
Big 12: Arizona, BYU and Kansas State. Only fitting that a conference loaded with parity and unpredictability would have a handful of bubble teams. (We weren’t ready to include Colorado, at least not yet.)
Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and USC. Tough to make the case that the Big Ten deserves as many CFP bids as the SEC, based on the results to date.
SEC: LSU, Mississippi, Missouri and Oklahoma. Of the four listed here, only Missouri remains undefeated. Texas A&M was considered for a nanosecond.
Independent: Notre Dame. The barrier for CFP entry keeps rising with every loss by Northern Illinois (and there have been two since the Huskies stunned the Irish).
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)
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No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Penn State. We don’t see any path for the Nittany Lions to earn an at-large berth but avoid an SEC opponent on the road in the opening round. Winner plays No. 1 Texas
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Iowa State. This projection assumes the Bulldogs will lose again in the regular season and not win the SEC title, which seems reasonable given their schedule (Texas and Mississippi on the road and Tennessee at home). Winner plays No. 2 Ohio State
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Clemson. The potential for Oregon to face its former coach, Miami’s Mario Cristobal, is higher than you might think given where the Hurricanes are likely to be seeded if they win the ACC. Winner plays No. 3 Miami
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Boise State. Maybe the Crimson Tide could hold Ashton Jeanty under 200 yards. (Or maybe not.) Winner plays No. 4 Utah
Looking ahead: Week 6
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that figure to impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.
(All times Pacific)
Missouri at Texas A&M (9 a.m. on ABC). The Tigers are unbeaten and cannot be ignored in the CFP race, at least for this week.
Iowa at Ohio State (12:30 p.m. on CBS). Decent chance the Buckeyes get caught in a look-ahead situation (to Oregon) and only win by two touchdowns.
Clemson at Florida State (4 p.m. on ESPN). A victory by the Seminoles would end any chance of Clemson grabbing an at-large berth.
Miami at Cal (7:30 p.m. on ESPN). This might be Miami’s toughest remaining test given that the Hurricanes don’t play Clemson and the ACC is generally lacking in first-rate teams.
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