Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team playoff race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
The second College Football Playoff rankings of the new era, scheduled to be released Tuesday at 5:30 p.m., are sure to feature major changes after losses by No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Miami.
Our eyes will be elsewhere: How will the selection committee treat the victorious teams from Week 11?
After all, we have seen instances in the past of the committee seemingly adjusting its second rankings to account for media criticism of the initial version.
In particular, the Hotline will watch these four issues on Tuesday:
— Will the committee correct for Brigham Young? Perhaps no decision drew more criticism than BYU’s placement in the No. 9 spot. Could the undefeated Cougars climb higher this week than would normally be expected following a victory over a sub-.500 opponent (Utah)?
— Will the committee correct for Indiana? The placement of the eighth-ranked Hoosiers also was viewed as too low for an undefeated team that had won every game handily. Their win over Michigan on Saturday was narrow in margin but nonetheless could allow the committee to adjust.
(In one respect, the committee caught a major break: The losses by Miami and Georgia offer a chance to move BYU and Indiana into palatable positions without having to dislodge teams that were victorious in Week 11.)
— How will Boise State be ranked relative to the top teams in the Power Four conferences? This will be an ongoing, high-stakes issue if the Broncos continue winning because of the potential for them to overtake the Big 12 or ACC champion and claim one of the top-four seeds — and the accompanying opening-round bye.
— How will the SEC be handled? The conference has two teams with one loss (Texas and Tennessee) and five teams with two losses, including No. 11 Alabama, which plastered LSU, and No. 16 Mississippi, which beat Georgia. Don’t be surprised if the SEC has five teams in the top 12 of the new rankings.
To the latest projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes and the four highest seeds. The fifth conference winner will be seeded according to its ranking.
1. Oregon (Big Ten). The more things change everywhere else, the less things change atop the Big Ten — and atop our projections. If the Ducks lose the conference championship game, they should receive the No. 5 seed.
2. Georgia (SEC). It’s mayhem on the top tier of the SEC with eight teams carrying either one or two losses (in conference play) into the final weeks. The last team standing won’t be seeded lower than No. 2 in the CFP.
3. Colorado (Big 12). With Iowa State fading, the Buffaloes have surged into position for a berth in the conference championship. We give them a slight edge over Brigham Young.
4. Boise State (Group of Five). The three-point loss at Oregon in Week 2 stands as one of the best results for any team in any conference and will greatly influence the committee.
10. SMU (ACC). The Mustangs have a one-game lead over Miami and Clemson with no head-to-head matchups within that trio, which should make for an interesting tiebreaker.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: none. There is a way for the ACC to produce a one-loss team that doesn’t win the conference championship: If Miami wins out but doesn’t qualify for the title game. That might be the ACC’s only path into the at-large field.
Big 12: none. The CFP rankings last week sketched a bleak forecast for the Big 12 and its hopes of placing a second team in the field. It would have to be BYU as the 12-1 loser of the conference championship. But that seems unlikely.
Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State. The key for the Big Ten maximizing its bid opportunities is to produce a conference championship game loser that is no worse than 11-2. The situation is tracking that way.
SEC: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas. Expect the SEC’s media hype machine to kick into high gear this week and start pushing for the conference to receive four at-large berths (and five bids in total).
Independent: Notre Dame. The ACC and Big 12 desperately need the Irish to lose a second game, thereby opening an at-large spot for the best runner-up.
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Miami and Pittsburgh. We did not include Clemson here because the Tigers have two possible outcomes: Win out and claim the ACC’s automatic bid; or suffer their third loss. And they aren’t getting in with three losses.
Big 12: Arizona State, Brigham Young, Iowa State and Kansas State. Any Big 12 team that finishes the regular season with two losses (or fewer) will be considered for the at-large field. But the leap from consideration to inclusion is a mile long.
Big Ten: none. Beyond the four teams positioned for automatic and at-large bids, the Big Ten is intensely mediocre. Nobody else is close to the bubble.
SEC: Mississippi, Missouri and Texas A&M. It sure seems like the results are breaking in the SEC’s favor if the goal is to have as many teams as possible in the mix for the at-large field.
Independent: Washington State. The Cougars were a tad too low in the initial rankings (No. 21) to have a realistic chance of climbing into the at-large field unless there is incomprehensible carnage above them.
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Alabama. A dream matchup for ESPN’s prime time broadcast on Dec. 21 which, unlike the two matchups earlier in the day, will be unopposed by an NFL game. Winner plays No. 1 Oregon
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 SMU. The Mustangs’ seed reflects our view of the committee’s treatment of the ACC champion. And frankly, we might be overestimating. Winner plays No. 2 Georgia
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Indiana. A team that nobody could have foreseen participating in the CFP just a few years ago takes on the Hoosiers. Winner plays No. 3 Colorado
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Saturday Night Five: Brigham Young escapes, Utah fumes as Holy War controversy goes next level
Mailbag: CFP seed paths (is Oregon better off losing?), impact of Boise State and WSU success, USC frustration and more
BYU’s spot in CFP rankings shows Big 12’s tough road to multiple bids
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Tennessee. The most coveted spot for some teams in the SEC and Big Ten might be the No. 5 seed, because it offers a home game, an ideal game schedule and the chance to face the No. 4 seed, which will emerge from the ACC, Big 12 or Group of Five. Winner plays No. 4 Boise State
Looking ahead: Week 12
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that could impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.
(All times Pacific)
Utah at Colorado (9 a.m. on Fox): Breakfast in Boulder offers the Buffaloes an opportunity to move one step closer to the Big 12 championship game. How will Utah respond to the gut-punch loss in the Holy War?
Boise State at San Jose State (4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network): Every game the Broncos play has implications for the CFP field, especially the ACC and Big 12 champions.
Oregon at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m. on NBC): The penultimate game of the regular season for top-ranked Oregon, which has a bye next week and then finishes at home against Washington.
Tennessee at Georgia (4:30 p.m. on ABC). This is only a CFP elimination game if you think the SEC has no chance to place a three-loss team in the field. We do not believe that, not for one second.
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