California shoppers continue to worry in the Trump 2.0 era, as one measure of optimism dropped to a 30-month low.
My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indexes for January, which tracks California, seven other states and the nation. This yardstick of psyche comes from monthly polling that, for this report, ended on Jan. 20. That was the day Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second White House term.
Now, you don’t need an index to know liberal California and conservative Trump aren’t a great mix. Still, statewide optimism has dipped three straight months after votes were tallied.
California confidence dropped 7% in January and is now 17% below pre-election October. That’s when Golden State optimism was at a 14-month high.
So, statewide confidence sank to a low last seen in July 2022, when the economy was early in its recovery from the lockdown days of the pandemic era.
Yes, U.S. shoppers are antsy, too – just not as concerned. Nationwide confidence fell 5% in the month and is 5% below October.
Curiously, these indexes showed that Californian shoppers were somewhat enthused when Trump first entered the Oval Office in 2017.
Statewide confidence rose 25% eight years ago in the same three-month period – more than double the 11% jump nationwide.
Details
In early 2025, Trump’s brash economic policies create, at a minimum, financial uncertainty.
Nobody knows the long-range outcomes of his plans for large-scale deportations of undocumented residents, potential tariff wars with trading partners, giant tax cuts or possible cuts in government benefits.
Those unknowns are now added to existing California anxieties, which include an iffy job market, costly living expenses, lofty interest rates and the Los Angeles wildfires.
This polling shows Californians are most nervous about their financial futures. The Conference Board’s statewide “expectations” index dropped 10% monthly and is down 30% since October. This metric, too, is at a 30-month low.
However, the state’s consumers appear content with current economic conditions. The “present situation” index was off 3% for the month and has only been down 1% since October.
Elsewhere
Nervousness isn’t limited to Golden Staters who didn’t get their candidate into the White House.
Look at consumer confidence in the five states in this study that Trump carried on Election Day. Michigan was the only state of the eight tracked where confidence increased in January. Optimism dipped in Texas, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
But of these five, only Pennsylvania’s January confidence was below pre-election levels.
And the two states in this study that Trump lost besides California?
Not surprisingly, optimism in New York and Illinois fell for the month and sits below October.
Bottom line
Just how anxious are Californians, historically speaking, as 2025 starts?
Going to 2007, when the Conference Board began state confidence indexes, California’s January reading was only 1% higher than the state’s average confidence score from every month during the past 18 years.
Remember, this period includes the economic debacles of the Great Recession and the pandemic. Meanwhile, the typical American’s optimism is 13% above its average since 2007.
So, confidence is basically “meh” in California. And of the seven other states, only Illinois was equally near its typical optimism in January.
By this calculation, Michigan is currently the most optimistic state, at 36% above its norm. Then came New York (28% higher), Florida (23%), Ohio (22%), Texas (8%) and Pennsylvania (6%).
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com