Breaking down the 49ers’ uphill battle to reach the playoffs

SANTA CLARA — One of the most error-prone 49ers teams in recent memory has just about exhausted its margin for error.

The 49ers are 5-5, having lost their third NFC West game to an opponent they led in the fourth quarter — now twice on their own field at Levi’s Stadium.

But with seven games remaining, the urgency is more acute than it was when the 49ers lost 27-24 to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2 or 24-23 to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4.

“I think that’s our mindset for sure, to win every single game — and you’ve got to do it one game at a time,” quarterback Brock Purdy said. “You can’t look too far ahead. Up next is Green Bay and we have to be all on that and not look up.

“We have to look down and do our jobs, get better as a unit and we’ve got to find a way to win. It’s the NFL, it’s not easy and nothing is given to you.”

The postgame scene, not surprisingly, was a grim one when Shanahan met with his team and said what he’s had to say far too often through 10 games.

“We just ran through the game, and we had plenty of opportunities to win that game, take it over and we failed at it,” Purdy said. “He obviously took ownership for himself as well and we all did in the locker room. We’re all not satisfied with how we played.”

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Cornerback Isaac Yiadom, a seven-year veteran who has played for Denver, the New York Giants, Green Bay, Houston and New Orleans, still senses the vibe of a winner despite the .500 record.

“I’ve been on 5-5 teams and sometimes it’s like your confidence isn’t there, but I still feel like we are a great team,” Yiadom said. “We know what we have to get fixed. We know the point of emphasis this week and that’s exactly what we are going to do.”

In terms of seeding for the division, the 49ers are dead last behind Arizona (6-4) and both the Rams (5-5) and Seahawks (5-5).

In terms of getting one of the seven NFC spots and sneaking into the playoffs as they did in the final week of the 2022 season, the 49ers are 10th behind the Rams and Seahawks. Washington is currently in the final playoff spot, No. 7, with a 7-4 record.

Besides their own mistakes, which include penalty issues, offensive execution in the red zone and special teams miscues, the 49ers’ remaining schedule is extremely difficult. The last five games are against teams that are a combined 44-27, a winning percentage of .620.

While it’s possible the 49ers could emerge from a glut of teams and get into a wild card game at 9-8 by going 4-3, they’d have a much better shot by going 5-2 and winning 10 games as they did in 2022 when they advanced to the NFC Championship Game.

Here’s how it plays out:

Week 12 at Green Bay (7-3)

The Packers blocked a last-second field goal attempt Sunday to beat Chicago. This is a big one for the 49ers in that if Green Bay fades, a head-to-head win could mean the difference if they finish with the same record.

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Week 13 at Buffalo (9-2)

Beating the hottest team in the NFL and conquerors of the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs would do wonders for the 49ers’ confidence. But if you ranked the remaining games in terms of importance, a road loss to AFC team wouldn’t have much to do with NFC tiebreakers.

Week 14 vs. Chicago (4-6)

This is the closest thing to a layup remaining on the schedule. The problem is the 49ers have been playing down to their opposition all season other than early wins against the New York Jets and New England Patriots.

Week 15 at L.A. Rams (5-5)

The Rams were so shocked at their Week 2 win in Levi’s Stadium that coach Sean McVay’s first words to the media were “Holy (expletive).” This could end up being an elimination game for the loser and it’s on a Thursday night.

Week 16 at Miami (4-6)

With quarterback Tua Tagovaiola back in the lineup the Dolphins have won their last two against the Rams and Raiders. Another AFC opponent so it wouldn’t apply to NFC tiebreakers but losses this close to the end of the season could put the 49ers in dire straits.

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Week 17 vs. Detroit (9-1)

Remember how badly the 49ers wanted to beat the Eagles last season after their NFC title game loss the previous year? The Lions will feel like that on the night before New Year’s Eve — and will likely be in contention for the No. 1 seed.

Week 18 at Arizona (6-4)

Any chance the 49ers have of a home playoff game would likely come by overtaking the Cardinals and winning the division title, which would probably make them the No. 4 seed. Arizona’s final seven opponents have a 34-37 record and only one of the teams (Minnesota) currently has a record above .500.

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