There are many contenders for the Big 12 tournament title but only two forecasts available to your friendly neighborhood prognosticator.
The 15-game event beginning Tuesday in Kansas City has a prohibitive favorite, Houston, but no clear second (or third) option. Remove the Cougars from consideration for any reason, and picking the winner becomes an exercise in deciphering chaos.
Brigham Young will win if the Cougars play as they have for the past month.
Arizona will win if guard Caleb Love gets hot.
Iowa State will win if guards Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones get hot.
Kansas will win if preseason hype carries postseason significance.
Texas Tech will win if a season spent toiling in the shadows conveys protection against the postseason glare.
Any of the other 10 teams will win if the madness grows impatient and refuses to wait for the NCAAs.
For all the uncertainty, we are confident in the following forecast: If the five days at T-Mobile Center are anything like the 10 weeks that played out across Big 12 arenas, the fans will emerge as the biggest winners.
Here we go …
(All times Pacific)
First round (Tuesday)
No. 12 Oklahoma State over No. 13 Cincinnati (9:30 a.m. on ESPN+): We just saw this matchup, with the Cowboys breaking open a close game in the final minutes for an 11-point home win Saturday. The Bearcats have lost five of their past seven and three in a row. Make it four. (Winner plays No. 5 Iowa State)
No. 9 TCU over No. 16 Colorado (12 p.m. on ESPN+): Another matchup that played out on the final day of the regular season, with the Buffaloes rolling to a 20-point victory in Boulder. That said, CU hasn’t won away from home since November, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this week. (Winner play No. 8 West Virginia)
No. 15 Arizona State over No. 10 Kansas State (4 p.m. on ESPN+): The teams split their regular-season meetings, with ASU winning in Manhattan by 12 points a few weeks ago. These could very well be the final days of the Bobby Hurley era. But given how well the Sun Devils have played outside of Tempe, we suspect they will muster the performance needed to extend his tenure by at least one day. (Winner plays No. 7 Baylor)
No. 14 UCF over No. 11 Utah (6:30 p.m. on ESPN+): Utah lost a close game in Orlando two weeks ago, then relieved Craig Smith of his duties the next day. Although the Utes have played reasonably well under interim coach Josh Eilert, the postseason is an entirely different challenge for rudderless teams. Utah has hired former player Alex Jensen to take over next season. His tenure officially begins late Tuesday night. (Winner plays No. 6 Kansas)
Second round (Wednesday)
No. 5 Iowa State over No. 12 Oklahoma State (9:30 a.m. on ESPN/ESPN2): So deep is the Big 12 that a legitimate Final Four contender will compete in the second round of the conference tournament. Iowa State wobbled down the stretch, losing three of its last five. But with their gifted guards and airtight defense, the Cyclones are built for the postseason. (Winner plays No. 4 Brigham Young)
No. 8 West Virginia over No. 9 TCU (12 p.m. on ESPN+): Even though the Mountaineers were one of the Big 12’s top overachievers — they earned the eighth seed after being picked 13th in the preseason poll — we expected a bit more after their stellar play in November and December. They have just enough to shimmy past TCU. (Winner plays No. 1 Houston)
No. 15 Arizona State over No. 7 Baylor (4 p.m. on ESPN+): Despite the disparity in seeds and ASU’s injury-ravaged existence, don’t discount the possibility of the Sun Devils emerging as the tournament’s biggest surprise — and making any decision on Hurley’s future a bit more complicated. The key for ASU will be slowing Baylor freshman VJ Edgecombe, a massive talent who has been inconsistent in recent weeks. (Winner plays No. 2 Texas Tech)
No. 6 Kansas over No. 14 UCF (6:30 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPNU): The AP preseason No. 1 has been relegated to second-round participation after losing nine conference games (and four of its final seven). Then again, the Jayhawks have performed well, even in defeat, since the blowout loss at BYU. They have the ingredients needed to wreck a few brackets this month. (Winner plays No. 3 Arizona)
Quarterfinals (Thursday)
No. 4 Brigham Young over No. 5 Iowa State (9:30 a.m. on ESPN/ESPN2): If this showdown is half as compelling as the Cougars’ double-overtime victory last weekend, it could be the best game of the tournament. They committed 29 turnovers in Ames but dominated underneath, and we don’t see that dynamic changing in the rematch. BYU hasn’t lost since early February and could very well be the last team standing Saturday afternoon.
No. 1 Houston over No. 8 West Virginia (12 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2): We aren’t sure which feat is more impressive: Winning the regular season race by four games or winning all 10 conference road games. That combination has established the Cougars as the team to beat in Kansas City. Their lone in-season matchup against the Mountaineers resulted in a 31-point victory (in Houston). This won’t be quite as easy.
No. 2 Texas Tech over No. 15 Arizona State (4 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2): The run ends here for ASU, which is operating on fumes at this point and won’t keep pace with the Red Raiders in the second half. If a coaching change is coming in Tempe, leaks could emerge soon after the buzzer. But the search itself will take time, especially if the Sun Devils have their sights on a coach competing in the NCAAs.
No. 6 Kansas over No. 3 Arizona (6:30 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2): The regular-season finale offered first-rate context for what should be the best game of the quarterfinals. Kansas pulled away late as the Wildcats made just three field goals in the final six minutes. Arizona also struggled to counteract KU’s frontcourt, with Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams combining for 45 points and 18 rebounds. Given that, we aren’t convinced the Wildcats, who dropped five of their last eight, have enough at either end of the court to fend off an opponent that’s far more talented than its seed suggests.
Semifinals (Friday)
No. 1 Houston over No. 4 Brigham Young (4 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2): The best team in the conference meets perhaps the hottest team in the country, with the game-within-the-game easy to sketch: Houston owns the No. 2 defense in the land, according to the Pomeroy efficiency ratings, while BYU possesses one of the most dynamic offenses. The difference in this delicious matchup could be consistency: BYU tends to ebb and flow over the course of 40 minutes; Houston is a chainsaw from the first minute to the last.
No. 6 Kansas over No. 2 Texas Tech (6:30 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2): The first and only regular-season duel (March 1) was tied with 1:47 remaining before the Red Raiders broke through for a five-point victory in Lawrence. The rematch should be comparably taut, albeit with a different outcome, as KU begins to resemble the team everyone expected all along. This time, the Jayhawks will have an answer for Texas Tech star JT Toppin.
Championship (Saturday)
No. 1 Houston over No. 6 Kansas (3 p.m. on ESPN): The only regular-season meeting was unforgettable, with the Cougars scoring six points in the final eight seconds of the first overtime to force what became a decisive second extra period. The loss haunted KU for weeks and added rocket fuel to Houston’s season. We don’t expect the rematch to offer as many thrills, but it should be a crisp, well-played finale that establishes the Cougars as one of three favorites in the NCAAs, along with Auburn and Duke.
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