Welcome to a weekly feature on the Hotline. We’ll break down Big 12 basketball using key metrics (NET rankings, KenPom ratings, etc.), our observations and a dose of old-fashioned sarcasm (when needed) — all in the name of providing fans with the state-of-play in one of the nation’s toughest conferences.
(Results listed for games in the past week.)
With Selection Sunday fast approaching, Arizona is perched on a different sort of NCAA Tournament bubble.
The Wildcats long ago locked up an invitation to March Madness, but their seed remains uncertain.
Could they climb to a No. 2 or 3 with a deep run in the Big 12 tournament? Perhaps. But the most likely landing spots, it seems, are the No. 4 and 5 lines.
While that difference appears negligible, NCAA history suggests a substantive disparity between the two.
According to NCAA archives, No. 4 seeds have won 78.8 percent of their opening-round games against No. 13s, while No. 5 seeds have won just 64.7 percent of their matchups against No. 12s.
Put another way, No. 4s have only lost 33 times in the first round; No. 5s have lost 55 times.
There’s more:
— Two No. 4 seeds have won the national championship, including Arizona in 1997, but no No. 5 seeds have been the last team standing.
— No. 4 seeds have an overall record of 243-154 in tournament play (or 61.2 percent), while No. 5 seeds are 180-156 (or 53.5 percent).
During a single-elimination event in which fate often plays out on the margins — a few baskets over a handful of possessions in the final minutes — every advantage counts.
In this case, the advantage held by No. 4 seeds over No. 5s is the opponent: The former are often champions of one-bid conferences; the latter are typically mid-level finishers from the power conferences that are undaunted by the environment and comparable in talent to the No. 5 seed.
Because they face Kansas this weekend in the regular-season finale and then will likely play an NCAA-bound team in the Big 12 tournament, the Wildcats have little downside risk left on their schedule.
But there is immense upside potential if they maximize the opportunity — enough to polish their resume, secure a top-four seed and stay above the danger zone.
To the power rankings …
1. Houston (26-4/18-1)
Results: beat Cincinnati 73-64 and Kansas 65-59
Best win: at Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. San Diego State
NET ranking: 3
Comment: Much as some ESPN talking heads might try to will it into existence, the SEC should not have a third team on the No. 1 seed line ahead of the Cougars. Auburn and Tennessee, fine. But not Florida or Alabama. No way.
2. Brigham Young (22-8/13-6)
Results: won at ASU 91-81, beat West Virginia 77-56, won at Iowa State 88-85 (2OT)
Best win: at Iowa State
Worst loss: at Providence
NET ranking: 24
Comment: Either the Cougars are bound for the second weekend of the NCAAs or this run was a peaking-too-early case for the ages.
3. Arizona (20-10/14-5)
Results: beat Utah 83-66, lost at Iowa State 84-67, beat Arizona State 113-100
Best win: at BYU
Worst loss: at Kansas State
NET ranking: 24
Comment: A victory on Senior Night over your rival is fine and dandy. Allowing 100 points to a six-man team that had lost eight of its previous nine is nothing to celebrate and, in fact, a mild cause for concern.
4. Texas Tech (22-7/13-5)
Results: won at Kansas 78-73
Best win: at Houston
Worst loss: vs. UCF
NET ranking: 7
Comment: The Red Raiders are No. 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com — their highest position in that category in a decade (and it isn’t close).
5. Iowa State (22-8/12-7)
Results: beat Arizona 84-67, lost to BYU 88-85 (2OT)
Best win: at Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. Kansas State
NET ranking: 9
Comment: The Cyclones cannot allow one loss (to BYU) to morph into a second defeat (Saturday at Kansas State). The former won’t hurt their NCAA seed, but the latter could be damaging.
6. Baylor (18-12/10-9)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 71-61, won at TCU 61-58
Best win: vs. St. John’s
Worst loss: vs. TCU
NET ranking: 31
Comment: The Bears were smart to handle their business against the Cowboys and Horned Frogs, because a loss to either team might have created a bubble alert. As the situation stands, they should clear the at-large bar with some cushion.
7. Kansas (19-11/10-9)
Results: lost to Texas Tech 78-73 and at Houston 65-59
Best win: vs. Duke
Worst loss: at Utah
NET ranking: 21
Comment: Both the Big 12 and ESPN had grand visions for KU’s regular-season finale Saturday against Arizona. The visitors did their best to make the game compelling. The hosts, not so much.
8. West Virginia (18-12/9-10)
Results: lost at BYU 77-56, won at Utah 71-69
Best win: vs. Arizona
Worst loss: vs. Arizona State
NET ranking: 48
Comment: Assuming the Mountaineers beat UCF this weekend, every Big 12 team projected for the NCAA Tournament will have a conference record of .500 or better. That won’t be the case in other power conferences. (Yes, we’re talking about the SEC.)
9. Cincinnati (17-12/7-11)
Results: lost at Houston 73-64
Best win: vs. BYU
Worst loss: at Villanova
NET ranking: 42
Comment: The Bearcats are the answer to an increasingly relevant trivia question: Name the last team to beat BYU. (They did it back on Feb. 8, in Cincinnati, by 18 points.)
10. TCU (16-14/9-10)
Results: beat UCF 89-78, lost to Baylor 61-58
Best win: vs. Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. Utah
NET ranking: 71
Comment: Had you asked us prior to this season — or any season, really — where the Horned Frogs would land in the final NET rankings, we would have responded with, “Somewhere in the 60s or 70s.” It’s that kind of program: Always solid, rarely elite.
11. Kansas State (14-15/8-10)
Results: lost at UCF 80-76, beat Colorado 65-56
Best win: at Iowa State
Worst loss: vs. Liberty
NET ranking: 82
Comment: The Wildcats have experienced three seasons in one, but they will only become relevant by conjuring a fourth chapter that mirrors the second, when they reeled off six consecutive wins.
12. Utah (16-14/8-11)
Results: lost at Arizona 83-66, beat ASU 99-73, lost to West Virginia 71-69
Best win: vs. BYU
Worst loss: vs. Iowa
NET ranking: 64
Comment: A loss by fewer than 10 points Saturday night in Provo would constitute a victory, and don’t let any Utah fans convince you otherwise.
13. Oklahoma State (14-15/6-12)
Results: lost at Baylor 71-61
Best win: vs. Iowa State
Worst loss: vs. Nevada
NET ranking: 99
Comment: The Cowboys’ ranking is proof positive the NET is flawed. That’s it. That’s the comment.
14. UCF (15-14/6-12)
Results: beat Kansas State 80-76, lost at TCU 89-78
Best win: at Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. Cincinnati
NET ranking: 81
Comment: Plenty of results from the early weeks of conference play make absolutely no sense given the course of subsequent events. The Knights’ victory in Lubbock is one. A big one.
15. Arizona State (13-17/4-15)
Results: lost to BYU 91-81, at Utah 99-73 and at Arizona 113-100
Best win: vs. Saint Mary’s
Worst loss: vs. UCF
NET ranking: 65
Comment: Among the litany of problems in what could be Bobby Hurley’s final season is a long line of perplexingly poor performances in Tempe. The Sun Devils are 8-9 away from home and 5-8 in Desert Financial Arena.
16. Colorado (11-18/2-16)
Results: lost to Kansas State 65-56
Best win: vs. UConn
Worst loss: vs. Arizona State
NET ranking: 100
Comment: What felt possible at the time has become a brutal reality for the Buffaloes: It has been all downhill since their Nov. 26 victory over the defending national champions.
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