Welcome to a weekly feature on the Hotline. We’ll break down Big 12 basketball using key metrics (NET rankings, KenPom ratings, etc.), our observations and a dose of old-fashioned sarcasm (when needed) — all in the name of providing fans with the state-of-play in one of the nation’s toughest conferences.
(Results listed for games in the past week.)
March is just days away, but the level of madness enveloping the Big 12 should be limited in one notable regard. Unlike the ACC, Big Ten and SEC, the conference is devoid of true NCAA Tournament bubble-sitters. It’s hurtling toward a chaos-free experience on Selection Sunday.
Unless there’s a collapse in the final weeks, there will be no surprises when the 68-team field is announced March 16.
Houston, Arizona, Texas Tech and Iowa State are contenders for top-four seeds, while Kansas, Baylor and Brigham Young are in the No. 6-to-9 seed range.
West Virginia is closer to the bubble than anyone else. But the Mountaineers, who own five Quadrant I victories and have incurred no bad losses, aren’t in jeopardy so long as they win the games they should win down the stretch.
According to BracketMatrix, which aggregates 116 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions from across the internet, the Mountaineers are the highest-seeded team on the No. 10 line — several spots above the point that the true bubble begins.
They are included in the tournament field on all 116 brackets, receiving a No. 9 seed on many and a No. 11 or 12 seed on only a few.
This Big 12 season has been on brand, with parity and chaos as the co-dominant dynamics. The absence of uncertainty on Selection Sunday would be the most unexpected development of all.
To the power rankings …
1. Houston (24-4/16-1)
Results: beat Iowa State 68-59, won at Texas Tech 69-61
Best win: at Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. San Diego State
NET ranking: 3
Comment: The Cougars clinched a share of the Big 12 regular-season championship, thereby securing a spot in rarefied air: They are the first team in more than 100 years to win a major conference title in its first two years in the league, according to the Associated Press. The last team to do it was Idaho, which won the Pacific Coast Conference (the precursor to the Pac-12) in 1922-23.
2. Arizona (18-9/12-4)
Results: lost to Brigham Young 96-95
Best win: vs. Texas Tech
Worst loss: at Kansas State
NET ranking: 9
Comment: Credit the Wildcats for being proactive with regard to the derogatory chant by the student section aimed at BYU following the loss Saturday night. Athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois apologized to the Cougars a few minutes after midnight (in Tucson), rather than waiting until the next morning. Many schools would have declined to acknowledge the situation until the morning, a mistake in today’s social media environment.
3. Texas Tech (21-7/12-5)
Results: beat West Virginia 73-51, lost to Houston 69-61
Best win: at Houston
Worst loss: vs. UCF
NET ranking: 7
Comment: The Hotline cannot help but wonder if Texas Tech’s seed in the NCAA Tournament will be markedly lower than its NET ranking suggests due to a pillowy soft non-conference schedule and a Quadrant III loss (to UCF).
4. Brigham Young (19-8/10-6)
Results: won at Arizona 96-95
Best win: at Arizona
Worst loss: at TCU
NET ranking: 28
Comment: From the department of unanswerable questions: Are the Cougars peaking too early?
5. Iowa State (21-7/11-6)
Results: lost at Houston 68-59 and Oklahoma State 74-68
Best win: at Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. Kansas State
NET ranking: 10
Comment: Good thing for the Hotline and the Cyclones alike that March Madness doesn’t start this week, because we would have no idea how to deal with them in the office pool. Plenty about ISU screams Final Four, but there are indicators of a possible early exit, as well.
6. Kansas (19-9/10-7)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 96-64, won at Colorado 71-64
Best win: vs. Duke
Worst loss: at Brigham Young
NET ranking: 20
Comment: The Big 12 schedule-makers presumed KU would be in the middle of the conference race when they crafted a finishing stretch that features Texas Tech (home), Houston (road) and Arizona (home). Instead, the Jayhawks are playing the spoiler.
7. Baylor (16-12/8-9)
Results: lost at Colorado 76-74 and Cincinnati 69-67
Best win: vs. St. John’s
Worst loss: vs. TCU
NET ranking: 31
Comment: We have reached the no-wrong-answers point in the Big 12 power rankings — five teams have nine conference losses — and the Hotline’s supercomputer needed a nap after running 10,000 simulations of the remaining two weeks.
8. West Virginia (17-11/8-9)
Results: beat Cincinnati 62-59, lost at Texas Tech 73-51, beat TCU 73-55
Best win: vs. Arizona
Worst loss: vs. Arizona State
NET ranking: 45
Comment: To continue our discussion from above … The predictive metrics are aligned with the performance metrics (NET) on the Mountaineers, which strengthens their case: They are No. 48 in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings.
9. Cincinnati (17-11/7-10)
Results: lost at West Virginia 62-59, beat TCU 75-63 and Baylor 69-67
Best win: vs. BYU
Worst loss: vs. West Virginia
NET ranking: 49
Comment: Nine of the 11 losses are of the Quadrant I variety and the others are Quadrant II. And that, folks, is why the Bearcats have a path into the NCAAs. But admittedly, it’s oh-so-narrow.
10. TCU (15-13/8-9)
Results: lost at Cincinnati 75-63 and West Virginia 73-55
Best win: vs. Texas Tech
Worst loss: vs. Colorado State
NET ranking: 77
Comment: Just a hunch: The Horned Frog will sweep their final three games (UCF, Baylor and Colorado), then win their opener in the Big 12 tournament. Because Jamie Dixon.
11. Kansas State (13-14/7-9)
Results: lost to Arizona State 66-54
Best win: at Iowa State
Worst loss: vs. Arizona State
NET ranking: 81
Comment: Turns out, the Wildcats are exactly who we thought they were, and that stunning six-game run was little more than a grand mid-season illusion.
12. Oklahoma State (14-14/6-11)
Results: beat UCF 104-95, lost at Kansas 96-64, beat Iowa State 74-68
Best win: vs. Iowa State
Worst loss: vs. Florida Atlantic
NET ranking: 95
Comment: The Cowboys are, not surprisingly, the lowest-ranked Big 12 team (NET), which places them four spots below the SEC’s bottom feeder (South Carolina) and four above the Big Ten’s lowest (Washington).
13. UCF (14-13/5-11)
Results: lost at Oklahoma State 104-95, beat Utah 76-72
Best win: at Arizona State
Worst loss: at Colorado
NET ranking: 78
Comment: From what we have seen during his tenures with both Stanford and UCF, Johnny Dawkins is the consummate NET 70s coach: His teams will always be reasonably competitive but never elite.
14. Utah (15-12/7-9)
Results: lost at UCF 76-72
Best win: vs. Kansas
Worst loss: at Oklahoma State
NET ranking: 73
Comment: Hotline full-disclosure admission: We thought Craig Smith was absolutely the right hire for Utah at the time, in the spring of 2021, and remain baffled that his program never gained traction.
15. Arizona State (13-14/4-12)
Results: won at Kansas State 66-54
Best win: vs. Saint Mary’s
Worst loss: vs. UCF
NET ranking: 60
Comment: Abundantly clear that the 24-hour stretch in late November, when the Sun Devils beat Saint Mary’s and New Mexico in Palm Springs, was the peak of their season — and, perhaps, the peak of Bobby Hurley’s final season.
16. Colorado (11-17/2-15)
Results: beat Baylor 76-74, lost to Kansas 71-64
Best win: vs. UConn
Worst loss: vs. Arizona State
NET ranking: 93
Comment: Good thing the Big 12 allows every team to participate in the conference tournament. Had the format used by the ACC and Big Ten been implemented — only the top 15 participate — the Buffaloes likely would be watching from home.
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