The first season of the new Big 12 went as well as the conference could have hoped, until the last 30 seconds of the final game.
Houston’s bungled final possession in the NCAA championship game Monday night left the Cougars two points short and prevented the Big 12 from claiming its third national title in five years.
Otherwise, the conference performed well from early November, with five teams in the top 10 of the AP preseason poll, through the end of March, with two teams in the Elite Eight.
Is it reasonable to expect similar success next season?
Based on current rosters, the Big 12 has at least three teams with the personnel needed for deep runs in the NCAA Tournament and two more that likely will acquire the necessary pieces.
Consider this our initial Big 12 power rankings of the 2025-26 season.
(We’ll update them once rosters gain their final form.)
1. Houston
The anguish from losing the championship game will linger — until the first game of the 2025-26 season. And then the Cougars will overwhelm opponents as they do every week of every season. Kelvin Sampson’s roster could feature three key returnees in Milos Uzan, Joseph Tugler and Emanuel Sharp. It will also feature one of the best recruiting classes in the country, with elite prospects at three different positions and gifted point guard Pop Isaacs from Creighton.
2. Iowa State
For the moment, we’ll assume Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic return (along with their 35.1 combined points per game). We expect Blake Buchanan (from Virginia) to bolster the rotation, but Cyclones need their first-rate freshman class to contribute in order to make the jump from Final Four wanna-be to grand stage participant. So far, Dishon Jackson is the only transfer portal departure of significance.
3. Brigham Young
One of several issues was resolved Tuesday, when star point guard Egor Demin declared for the NBA Draft, where he is expected to become a first-round selection. Will forward Richie Saunders follow Demin out the door? If Saunders returns, the Cougars should hold their ground on the top tier of the Big 12 — and as one of the best offensive teams in the country — and make the most of what should be mega-recruit AJ Dybansta’s only season in college. And they might have a replacement for Demin already lined up in Baylor transfer Rob Wright.
4. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders produced one of the Big 12’s greatest upside surprises in 2024-25. (Picked seventh in the preseason media poll, they finished alone in second.) That won’t happen again — only the foolish will overlook Grant McCasland and Co. next season. Darrion Williams has declared for the NBA Draft and entered the transfer portal, but that doesn’t rule out a return to Lubbock. If he joins forces with JT Toppin and sophomore Christian Anderson, Texas Tech will have the best trio in the conference and the foundation for a Final Four run.
5. Arizona
The transfer portal taketh but, thus far, has not giveth to the Wildcats. We expect the scales to rebalance in coming weeks as coach Tommy Lloyd works his portal magic with a focus on rebuilding the perimeter following the departures of Caleb Love (eligibility expired) and KJ Lewis (transfer to Georgetown). Equally important: Whether gifted freshman Carter Bryant declares for, and stays in, the NBA Draft. Because the Wildcats have already lost Henri Veesaar to North Carolina, Bryant’s departure would carry an extra wallop.
6. Kansas
The Hotline has adopted a believe-it-when-we-see-it approach to the Jayhawks after their deeply disappointing season fueled by a suboptimal mix of players. There’s a solid foundation with big man Flory Bidunga, who withdrew from the portal, transfer guard Tre White (from Illinois) and incoming freshman Darryn Peterson, the nation’s top-ranked recruit. But Bill Self has much work remaining to construct a roster capable of winning the Big 12 after finishing eight games off the pace in the 2025 race.
7. TCU
A forgettable season in Fort Worth has rapidly given way to an encouraging spring, with the Horned Frogs grabbing two impact guards from the portal: Jayden Pierre (Providence) and Brock Harding (Iowa). They do, however, need help up front after losing center Ernest Udeh Jr. to Miami. Jamie Dixon isn’t on the hot seat entering his 10th season. But if TCU endures another year without an NCAA Tournament bid, he might be.
8. Baylor
The Bears were one of the conference’s biggest disappointments in 2024-25 and have been hit hard by offseason attrition, with point guard Rob Wright the latest to enter the portal. The trajectory does give us pause. Has coach Scott Drew topped out in Waco? Since winning the national title in 2021, the Bears haven’t escaped the second round of the NCAAs. As we see frequently across the country, entrenched coaches can struggle to regain momentum after leading a school to unprecedented success.
9. Kansas State
It was difficult enough to know which version of KSU would show up on a weekly basis last season. Projecting how the Wildcats will perform seven months from now is pure folly. Yet here we are, slotting them for a middle-tier finish based on the state of the competition, the arrival of Abdi Bashir Jr., a productive guard from Monmouth and, above all, coach Jerome Tang’s survival instincts.
10. Arizona State
The offseason began as well as the Sun Devils could have hoped with four-star transfers Maurice Odom and Marcus Adams Jr. joining Bobby Hurley’s program. But they lost Joson Sanon to St. John’s and Jayden Quaintance to Kentucky, and we’re skeptical the newcomers will generate enough production to elevate ASU onto the top tier in the rugged conference. And if progress isn’t substantial, the ’26 season seemingly will be Hurley’s finale in Tempe.
11. Oklahoma State
It might not last the spring, but the Cowboys currently have the No. 1 transfer class in the Big 12 with LSU’s Vyctorious Miller as the headliner. And they need it, because leading scorer Bryce Thompson and other key contributors are out of eligibility. Coach Steve Lutz did well to win seven conference games in his first season. We don’t envision a major jump from that level, but incremental progress is progress nonetheless.
12. Cincinnati
Tough to see a path to relevance for the Bearcats, who have lost promising freshman Tyler Betsey (transfer portal) and veterans Dillon Mitchell (transfer portal) and Simas Lukosius (eligibility expired). That doesn’t bode well for Wes Miller, who has yet to reach the NCAA Tournament in four years with Cincinnati and figures to have one of the hottest seats in the country next season.
13. West Virginia
The most notable newcomer in Morgantown is the head coach. Ross Hodge takes over after two seasons at North Texas and is the Mountaineers’ fourth coach in the past four seasons. He follows Bob Huggins, interim Josh Eilert and then Darian DeVries, who bolted for Indiana after one year. Coaching turnover is one thing; tumult is another. And the latter makes success extraordinarily difficult.
14. UCF
How Johnny Dawkins remains on the job in Orlando, we cannot fathom. The Knights have reached the NCAA Tournament once in his nine years — and that was way back in 2019. They did win 20 games this season and play for the championship of the inaugural College Basketball Crown tournament. But there are no signs of progress where it matters: within the Big 12. Another season of plodding along seems inevitable.
15. Utah
New coach Alex Jensen has been handed the keys to his alma mater and hopes to restore the Utes to the level they occupied — or close to it — when he played for Rick Majerus in the late 1990s. Jensen doesn’t inherit much talent from the Craig Smith era, which means the road to recovery is likely to be long and treacherous in an unforgiving conference. BYU’s emergence as a contender under Kevin Young ramps up the urgency for Jensen to win sooner than later.
16. Colorado
The Buffaloes were not equipped to thrive in the Big 12 in any way, shape or form. That won’t change in Year 2 unless coach Tad Boyle finds overlooked talent in the transfer portal and his freshman class, which features two blue-chip prospects, provides immediate and consistent production. Fortunately for Boyle, all the attention in Boulder is locked on Deion Sanders.
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