The Best of the West offers fans a candid assessment of the top teams in the western third of the country — a collection that includes the Mountain West and the former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and West Coast Conference.
The rankings will be published on the Hotline each Monday through the remainder of the regular season.
Two months from Selection Sunday, the framework is taking shape. Contenders for the No. 1 seeds have emerged, bubble teams are appearing and conference hierarchy is gaining clarity.
The Mountain West’s forecast for the NCAA Tournament is suboptimal with a chance of bleak.
It could be a two-bid conference, folks.
Just 10 months after sending a record six teams to the NCAAs, the Mountain West is staring at a multi-year low.
Utah State is on solid ground for an at-large berth, with San Diego State not far behind. But that’s it.
Beyond the Aggies and Aztecs, the conference features a mass of teams with flawed resumes and narrow paths into March Madness.
New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State are hovering on the outskirts of the NCAA bubble with limited opportunities to improve their positions.
That’s the beauty and curse of the NCAA selection process: Perform well in November and December, and the success creates a multiplier effect in the NET rankings; perform poorly, and the blemishes become a contagion infecting every resume.
The Mountain West struggled in the opening months and posted its lowest non-conference winning percentage (61.7) of the decade. It lost 10 games to the West Coast Conference, six to the Big West and two to the Big Sky.
As a result, there might not be enough Quadrant I games remaining for the trio of bubble teams to materially strengthen their resumes.
In our view, the best-case scenario is three bids: Utah State and San Diego State remain on track for the at-large pool while a third team — maybe it’s the Lobos, or the Broncos — wins the conference tournament in Las Vegas and grabs the automatic berth.
But it’s difficult to imagine four teams in the NCAA, much less five or six.
To the Best of the West …
1. Gonzaga (14-4/5-0 West Coast Conference)
Last week: 2
Results: beat San Diego 93-80 and Washington State 88-75
NET ranking: 10
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: The Zags look like a No. 4 seed in the NCAAs given their modest 2-4 record in Quadrant I games and the slim chance that mark improves substantially over the next two months.
2. Utah State (16-1/6-0 Mountain West)
Last week: 3
Results: won at San Jose State 85-78, beat Boise State 81-79
NET ranking: 31
Next up: at UNLV (Wednesday)
Comment: Ian Martinez’s 4-point play to beat the Broncos with seven seconds left is comfortably on the short list of top plays of the season thus far — not only regionally but nationally — especially with the way the ball dances on the rim for what feels like a full minute.
3. Arizona (10-5/4-0 Big 12)
Last week: 7
Results: won at West Virginia 75-56, beat UCF 88-80
NET ranking: 14
Next up: vs. Baylor (Tuesday)
Comment: The Hotline would like to extend a word of thanks to the Wildcats for not losing to UCF in their first game after our prediction that they locked up an NCAA Tournament bid. We don’t mind being wrong (obviously), but that would have been particularly tough timing.
4. Oregon (15-2/4-2 Big Ten)
Last week: 6
Results: won at Ohio State 73-71 and Penn State 82-81
NET ranking: 21
Next up: vs. Purdue (Saturday)
Comment: The atmosphere in Matthew Knight Arena for the Boilermakers (No. 15 in the NET) should approach what we witnessed so often when Arizona would visit for a Pac-12 showdown. Tipoff is 12 p.m. on NBC, if you’re interested.
5. UCLA (11-5/2-3 Big Ten)
Last week: 1
Results: lost to Michigan 94-75 and at Maryland 79-61
NET ranking: 32
Next up: at Rutgers (Monday)
Comment: A three-game losing streak plus Mick Cronin bashing his players’ effort plus Cronin getting ejected from the Maryland game can only mean one thing: The Bruins are about to start a lengthy winning streak. We have seen them bottom out before, and the recovery is usually V-shaped.
6. New Mexico (14-3/6-0 Mountain West)
Last week: 9
Results: won at Wyoming 61-53, beat San Diego State 62-48
NET ranking: 57
Next up: at San Jose State (Tuesday)
Comment: The Lobos should be rooting hard for New Mexico State to thrive in Conference USA and turn what stands as a Quadrant III loss to the Aggies into a Quadrant II result. The change could improve their resume substantially.
7. Arizona State (10-5/1-3 Big 12)
Last week: 5
Results: lost at Kansas 74-55, lost to Baylor 72-66 (OT)
NET ranking: 55
Next up: vs. UCF (Tuesday)
Comment: If the Sun Devils stumble against UCF, which lost at Arizona by just eight points, their next conference victory could be several weeks away. The upcoming schedule is stout.
8. San Diego State (10-4/3-2 Mountain West)
Last week: 4
Results: beat Air Force 67-38, lost at New Mexico 62-48
NET ranking: 40
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Tuesday)
Comment: The loss in The Pit felt worse than it was because SDSU trailed by double digits for most of the second half (and by 20 at one point). In reality, it was simply a Quadrant I defeat that won’t materially impact the Aztecs’ resume.
9. Saint Mary’s (15-3/5-0 West Coast Conference)
Last week: 8
Results: beat LMU 81-56, won at San Diego 103-56
NET ranking: 33
Next up: at Pepperdine (Saturday)
Comment: The status of the Pepperdine game is obviously uncertain given the tragic situation in Malibu. If the game gets postponed, the Gaels will have a stretch of 12 days with no competition, then plunge into their toughest multi-week stretch of the season.
10. Brigham Young (10-5/1-3 Big 12)
Last week: 11
Results: lost to Texas Tech 72-67, lost at TCU 71-67
NET ranking: 48
Next up: vs. Oklahoma State (Tuesday)
Comment: The Cougars are 268th in the luck component of the Pomeroy efficiency ratings, which measures the difference between expected record and actual record given the schedule — and suggests their fortunes have room to improve over the second half of the season.
11. Boise State (12-5/4-2 Big 12)
Last week: 13
Results: beat UNLV 81-59, lost at Utah State 81-79
NET ranking: 52
Next up: vs. Wyoming (Tuesday)
Comment: With their modest non-conference schedule, a whopping nine Quadrant III and IV wins and one bad loss (to Boston College), the Broncos are barely a bubble team at this point.
12. Washington State (13-5/3-2 West Coast Conference)
Last week: 10
Results: lost to Pacific 95-94 (OT), lost at Gonzaga 88-75
NET ranking: 75
Next up: at San Diego (Thursday)
Comment: We wonder if Gonzaga effectively got the Cougars twice, with the ghastly loss to Pacific coming as a result of WSU looking ahead to the duel in Spokane. No other explanation makes sense. The Tigers are terrible.
13. Stanford (11-5/3-2 ACC)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: beat Virginia Tech 70-59 and Virginia 88-65
NET ranking: 79
Next up: at Wake Forest (Wednesday)
Comment: Once the Cardinal complete this trip to Tobacco Road, they will only (sarcasm alert) have four more trips across the Rockies left, including the ACC Tournament.
14. UC Irvine (15-2/5-0 Big West)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: won at Cal State Northridge 77-67 and UC San Diego 60-52
NET ranking: 43
Next up: vs. Cal State Fullerton (Thursday)
Comment: Among the 221 teams ranked below the Anteaters in the NET, you’ll find the likes of Iowa, Oklahoma, BYU, Arkansas, Creighton, Indiana and Georgetown. Their resume is legit.
15. UC San Diego (14-3/4-1 Big West)
Last week: 14
Results: beat Cal Poly 95-68, lost to UC Irvine 60-52
NET ranking: 53
Next up: at Long Beach State (Thursday)
Comment: Good case could be made for Santa Clara in this spot after wins over Oregon State and San Francisco. Generally, it wasn’t a great week for the contenders.
Also considered: Colorado, Colorado State, Grand Canyon, Nevada, Northern Colorado, Oregon State, Santa Clara, USC and Utah Valley
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline