The Best of the West offers fans a candid assessment of the top teams in the western third of the country — a collection that includes the Mountain West and the former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and West Coast Conference.
The rankings will be published on the Hotline each Monday through the remainder of the regular season.
The breathtaking beatdown unfolded three months ago: Gonzaga 101, Baylor, 63, and oh-my-goodness did the Zags look like a title contender.
The offense, the defense, the starters, the reserves, the effort and execution, the ball movement and rotations — every aspect of Gonzaga’s debut performance suggested its No. 6 ranking in the AP preseason poll was five spots too low.
Then came an unexpected loss to West Virginia in the Bahamas and a few high-profile December stumbles. The Zags lost to Kentucky, Connecticut and UCLA by a grand total of 10 points.
Still, the calendar turned and there was zero reason to think history would not repeat in West Coast Conference play, with the Zags ripping through the league, staring down Saint Mary’s in the conference tournament and entering the NCAAs with a top-four seed.
But with the stretch run approaching, the script has flipped, the losses are mounting and the outlook has turned gray.
The Zags (16-7) are not a lock for March Madness.
We repeat: It’s Feb. 3, and Gonzaga is not a lock for the NCAAs.
If the tournament were seeded today, the Zags would be a No. 8 seed according to BracketMatrix, which aggregates 91 NCAA Tournament bracket projections across the internet, including some of the most respected.
ESPN’s Bracketology lists them as a No. 8 seed; CBS Sports shows them as a No. 9; so does USA Today.
In that range, the Bulldogs aren’t on the bubble, but they are perilously close.
The Zags have eight games remaining in the regular season. Half are against the top teams in the WCC: Saint Mary’s, San Francisco and Santa Clara. A fifth is down the road at Washington State.
It would not take much to slide onto the NCAA bubble. Their tournament profile is as wobbly as the defense that has confounded coach Mark Few for weeks.
The Zags have just two Quadrant I victories — one less than Saint Mary’s.
Even worse, seven of their 16 wins are of the Quadrant IV variety.
And they are 50th in the Wins Above Bubble ranking, which measures how Gonzaga has performed against its schedule compared to how an average bubble team would have fared against the same lineup of opponents.
In WAB, the Zags are just behind three teams, Brigham Young, Arizona State and Pittsburgh, that are on the bubble.
This could be close, folks.
It’s not unreasonable to envision the Zags dropping two or three more games and entering the WCC tournament with their fate in doubt on Selection Sunday.
Gonzaga hasn’t missed March Madness since the 1990s. Its streak of 25 consecutive NCAA appearances is second only to Michigan State (26).
And we aren’t projecting the Zags to miss the event this year. But that very scenario — a team on the brink through the stretch run — has morphed from unthinkable to plausible in four short months.
To the latest power rankings …
1. Arizona (15-6/9-1 Big 12)
Last week: 2
Results: beat Iowa State 86-75 (OT), won at Arizona State 81-72
NET ranking: 11
Next up: at Brigham Young (Tuesday)
Comment: Not sure Tommy Lloyd could have handled the situation in Tempe, both in the final minute and at his news conference, any better if the Wildcats had scripted his actions and comments ahead of time. But will he defend Caleb Love publicly this week if given the chance?
2. UCLA (16-6/7-4 Big Ten)
Last week: 4
Results: won at USC 82-76, beat Oregon 78-52
NET ranking: 28
Next up: vs. Michigan State (Tuesday)
Comment: We lost track of Mick Cronin’s meltdowns over the Big Ten schedule but are fairly certain the Bruins’ five-game winning streak began after one of them. Which was so predictable that even the Hotline predicted it.
3. New Mexico (18-4/10-1 Mountain West)
Last week: 6
Results: won at Utah State 82-63
NET ranking: 46
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Wednesday)
Comment: The stunning victory in Logan didn’t just help the Lobos; it was beneficial to the Mountain West, as well, by bolstering the resume of what had been an NCAA Tournament bubble team. Increasingly, it appears the conference will send at least three to the NCAAs.
4. Saint Mary’s (20-3/10-0 West Coast Conference)
Last week: 5
Results: won at Santa Clara 67-54, beat Gonzaga 62-58
NET ranking: 22
Next up: at San Francisco (Thursday)
Comment: With a three-game lead (in the loss column) over Gonzaga and San Francisco, the Gaels are about two weeks away from locking down the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
5. Utah State (19-3/9-2 Mountain West)
Last week: 1
Results: beat UNLV 76-71, lost to New Mexico 82-63
NET ranking: 39
Next up: at Wyoming (Tuesday)
Comment: There were several stunning weekend results, including Arkansas winning at Kentucky, USC toppling Michigan State and Kansas State thumping Iowa State (in Ames). But the Aggies losing at home to New Mexico by 19 was not on our Mountain West bingo card for February.
6. Gonzaga (16-7/7-3 West Coast Conference)
Last week: 3
Results: beat Oregon State 98-60, lost at Saint Mary’s 62-58
NET ranking: 13
Next up: vs. Loyola Marymount (Thursday)
Comment: Tough finish at Saint Mary’s with Graham Ike on the bench with the gimpy leg for two crucial possessions in the final minutes and then, in our view, not having his usual explosion for the decisive sequence that resulted in a blocked shot. Frankly, it’s a credit to the Zags that they had a chance to win while shooting 3-of-17 from 3-point range.
7. Brigham Young (15-6/6-4 Big 12)
Last week: 9
Results: beat Baylor 93-89, won at UCF 81-75
NET ranking: 33
Next up: vs. Arizona (Tuesday)
Comment: The Cougars have played bigger home games than the one awaiting them Tuesday night. Given a few hours, we might even think of one.
8. Oregon (16-6/5-6 Big Ten)
Last week: 7
Results: lost at UCLA 78-52 and to Nebraska 77-71
NET ranking: 37
Next up: at Michigan (Wednesday)
Comment: Zero rest for the weary: The Ducks head back across the Rockies for two brutal games in Michigan, return home for 10 days, then schlep to Iowa and Wisconsin. They had best find their early-season form soon, or a middle-rung seed in the NCAAs awaits.
9. San Diego State (15-5/8-3 Mountain West)
Last week: 8
Results: beat San Jose State 71-68 and Wyoming 63-61
NET ranking: 48
Next up: at Colorado State (Saturday)
Comment: The Aztecs needed an 18-0 run to fend off SJSU and a 20-0 surge to beat back Wyoming — to which we say: By any means necessary in conference play.
10. Boise State (15-7/7-4 Mountain West)
Last week: 12
Results: beat Nevada 66-56 and Fresno State 82-60
NET ranking: 49
Next up: at UNLV (Tuesday)
Comment: The Broncos keep winning the games they’re supposed to win, which certainly counts for something. But until they secure one or two unexpected victories, their NCAA chances will remain at room temperature.
11. Colorado State (14-7/8-2 Mountain West)
Last week: 13
Results: beat Air Force 79-58
NET ranking: 76
Next up: at New Mexico (Wednesday)
Comment: The Rams could not have asked for better timing for an upset in Albuquerque than catching the Lobos off their massive win at Utah State and full of confidence having beaten CSU in the first matchup.
12. Stanford (15-7/7-4 ACC)
Last week: 10
Results: beat Syracuse 70-61, lost at SMU 85-61
NET ranking: 72
Next up: vs. Wake Forest (Wednesday)
Comment: The Cardinal have unofficially accomplished a baseline goal for their inaugural season in the ACC: Alone in sixth place, they are tracking to qualify for the conference tournament, which — for those who didn’t know — excludes the bottom three teams in the standings.
13. UC Irvine (20-3/10-1 Big West)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: won at Long Beach State 80-75, beat UC Davis 73-66
NET ranking: 56
Next up: vs. UC San Diego (Saturday)
Comment: The Anteaters’ current seed projection on Bracket Matrix (No. 12) suggests a bubble position if they don’t win the Big West tournament.
14. USC (13-8/5-5 Big Ten)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: lost to UCLA 82-76, beat Michigan State 70-64
NET ranking: 68
Next up: at Northwestern (Tuesday)
Comment: Some Best of the West love for the Muss Bus after the impressive win over the Spartans, who were unbeaten in Big Ten play until their loss in the Galen Center. As has been the case with so many Eric Musselman teams in the past, February should bring a surge in the Trojans’ quality of play.
15. San Francisco (18-6/8-3 West Coast Conference)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: beat Washington State 75-51
NET ranking: 67
Next up: vs. Saint Mary’s (Thursday)
Comment: The Dons hold a half-game lead over Gonzaga in the race for the No. 2 seed in the WCC tournament, which carries a bye into the semifinals. The situation should sort itself out with both head-to-head games looming in the final weeks of the season.
Also considered: Arizona State, Grand Canyon, Montana, Northern Colorado, Oregon State, Santa Clara, UC San Diego, UNLV, Utah, Utah Valley and Washington State
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