At least Arizona did not lose to a lower seed.
Or get run off the court.
Or implode in the final minutes.
This time, the Wildcats departed the NCAA Tournament with heads held high, fan angst low and the point spread covered.
Duke is the tournament favorite for a reason, with the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft (Cooper Flagg), two projected lottery selections (Kon Knueppel and Khaman Malauch) and off-the-charts efficiency honed over a season of dominance.
If anything, the Wildcats performed better in the 100-93 loss Thursday night than many expected, rallying from 19 down midway through the second half to within five points in the final minutes. They pushed Duke longer and harder in the Sweet 16 than Alabama did two days and one round later.
All the grit missing in prior years against lesser opponents — Arizona’s six previous tournament losses came courtesy of teams seeded at least four lines lower — was on display in Newark against the most talented team in the land.
That doesn’t change the reality of the program’s 24-year Final Four drought or an unfathomable 14-year stretch of not beating a higher seed. But it leaves behind a different vibe as the offseason begins and, coincidentally, provides a launch point for the crux of our discussion.
What lessons should the Wildcats take from their first year in the Big 12? Are changes needed to the travel logistics or the way they prepare for opponents? Should coach Tommy Lloyd tweak his philosophy of roster construction? What about the allocation of playing time across a more arduous season?
Also, should the Wildcats alter their approach to the non-conference schedule?
That topic might seem separate and distinct from changes related to life in the Big 12, but the two issues are deeply connected.
The frequency of high-level games in the Big 12 far exceeds what the Wildcats faced previously in the Pac-12 and affects their NCAA Tournament profile. That profile impacts their seed. And their seed, in turn, helps frame the road to the Final Four.
For example, Arizona beat Texas Tech on a neutral court in the Big 12 tournament, and Texas Tech pushed Florida to the brink two weeks later in the Elite Eight. It’s not unreasonable to think the Wildcats could have beaten the Gators had they been placed in the West. And regional placement depends on seed, which depends on profile, which depends on … non-conference schedule and performance.
Admittedly, we have plunged deep into the realm of hypotheticals. Also, our sample size isn’t small; it’s tiny. And the marquee non-conference games Arizona plays on a regular basis offer a slew of benefits.
They are a carrot when recruiting blue-chip prospects who want to play against elite competition, although that component seems less important in the age of NIL and revenue sharing.
They energize fans and generate ticket sales, although filling McKale Center has not been a problem for 40-something years.
And yes, they bolster resumes for the NCAA selection process by increasing both the strength-of-schedule metric and the number of Quadrant I opponents.
That was an issue for Arizona in its previous existence, when the mediocre Pac-12 often failed to provide an acceptable level of quality competition.
But the calculus in the Big 12 is completely different with so many teams entrenched in the top 75 of the NET ranking.
A few data points illustrate the situation:
— In their final three seasons in the Pac-12, the Wildcats played an average of 10.3 Quadrant I games prior to Selection Sunday.
— This season, with the Big 12 schedule as the bedrock, the Wildcats played 21.
— No team in the top 20 of the final NET rankings played more than the Wildcats and only two, Auburn and Kentucky, matched Arizona’s total.
— The average number of Quad I games played by the No. 1 seeds in the NCAAs was 16.3.
— The average number of Quad I games played by the No. 2 seeds was 16.3.
— The average number of Quad I games by the No. 3 seeds was 17.3.
And so we wonder: Could the Wildcats ratchet down the rigor of their non-conference schedule with few, if any, downside risks to their ultimate seed? Would any upside benefits (e.g., fewer losses) improve their chances of earning a higher seed?
To be clear, we are not suggesting Arizona eliminate all Quadrant I-caliber games in November and December. The UCLA series, scheduled through 2027, is important. So are the neutral site events in Las Vegas, Hawaii, The Bahamas and elsewhere.
But could tweaks be made on the margins? With the transfer portal and NIL transforming rosters every year, early-season chemistry can be more difficult to attain.
Arizona stumbled repeatedly in the opening weeks and was 6-5 when conference play began, in part because Lloyd needed time to assimilate new players.
Those losses impact the seeding process, and every seed line matters.
It’s difficult to know how the situation would have played out had the Wildcats not scheduled, and lost to, Duke and Wisconsin.
But Texas Tech, Brigham Young and Iowa State played substantially weaker non-conference schedules than Arizona and seemed no worse for the strategy when March arrived.
The answers are unknowable at this point. This is a multi-year issue for Lloyd to assess, perhaps in consultation with Big 12 officials who have access to reams of data that could prove insightful.
But when two-thirds of your schedule is substantially more difficult than it used to be, it only makes sense to reassess the remaining one-third.
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