The Houston Texans apparent reluctance to extend C.J. Stroud may ultimately prove to be the most prudent stance they could have taken. Stroud and the Texans have been to the postseason every year since he entered the league.
However, there have been clear signs that Stroud has not only failed to maintain his level of play from a standout rookie season, but that he has regressed to a point that should be concerning.
Given the uncertainty around him, he enters the 2026 season with plenty to prove and disprove.
C.J. Stroud Left Texans Facing ‘Huge Risk’
GettyC.J. Stroud is heading for a crossroads with the Houston Texans.
Stroud threw for 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for the Texans during the 2025 regular season. He set career-highs in completion percentage and Total QBR, while also improving his touchdown and interceptions rates and passer rating from the 2024 season.
However, Stroud’s issues run deeper.
Sleeper’s Jacob Barzilla highlighting “Some QBs who have a better EPA/Play over the last 2 years than C.J. Stroud (minimum 500 plays)” in a post on X on July 12.
The list largely consisted of a players who have been in the league longer than Stroud, with Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, and Tua Tagovailoa all making it.
Also included 2024 first-round pick Bo Nix.
“Would have been a HUGE risk to pay him this offseason,” Barzilla said in his post of the Texans’ indecision around Stroud.
The Texans picked up the fifth-year option on Stroud’s rookie contract this offseason, keeping him under team control through the 2027 sason. But another season of regression could spell the end of his time with the Texans.
Stroud has owned up to his shortcomings on multiple occasions.
However, his future remains unsettled, setting the 2026 season up as a potentially pivotal one for Stroud and the Texans.
Texans’ Offense Expected to Improve
GettyThe 2026 season could see significant strides from C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans’ offense.
The encouraging thing for Stroud is that the Texans have once again gone out of their way to revamp his offensive line this offseason. Texans general manager Nick Caserio also acquired running back David Montgomery in a trade with the Detroit Lions.
Those moves should have a positive impact on the group.
The Athletic’s Ted Ngueyn highlighted the Texans upgrades at RB and along their offensive line, listing the Texans’ as one of the offenses he expects to “break out” this coming season.
“Stroud has struggled for two seasons after a strong rookie campaign, but I still believe he can rebound in his second season in [Nick] Caley’s offense,” Nguyen wrote on July 10, after noting the Texans had good games against tough defenses in 2025. “With a season of added responsibility at the line of scrimmage under his belt, Stroud should be much more comfortable and, theoretically, the ability to adjust protections and change plays can be an advantage.”
Stroud could be the difference between postseason disappointment or a Super Bowl berth.
“The Texans offense doesn’t have to be a top-10 unit for them to be contenders because they have arguably the league’s best defense,” Nguyen wrote. “If they can finish in the 12-15th range in offense DVOA, they can be Super Bowl contenders.”
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