The Bears are expected to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams next week.
Mark J. Terrill/AP
Not long after he traded for six-time Pro Bowl player Keenan Allen, Bears general manager Ryan Poles was asked if he had to sell the receiver on leaving the only franchise he’d known since being drafted in 2013.
Absolutely not, Poles insisted.
“Because of the moves we’ve been making and the progress we’ve been making from a football standpoint,” he told the Sun-Times last month. “I think these guys are starting to see that this can be a place where special things are going to happen.”
The Bears have maintained all offseason that they aren’t your typical team holding the No. 1 overall pick in Thursday’s NFL draft. They finished 7-10 last year, winning seven of their final 13 games and benefiting from the Panthers, with whom they traded in March 2023, finishing with the league’s worst record.
The Bears are built to win now. The 15 most expensive contracts on their salary cap are deals signed in the last 14 months — not counting four-year contracts that will be given to USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the expected top pick Thursday night in Detroit, and whomever the Bears choose ninth.
Because the Bears aren’t starting over like most other teams blessed with the top pick, they need to win in 2024 and develop Williams at the same time. In that sense, Matt Eberflus is under more pressure to win than your average coach with the No. 1 overall pick.
That’s saying something.
Since 2013, seven teams have drafted a quarterback No. 1 overall. Four of them fired their head coaches during the quarterback’s rookie season — the Panthers’ Frank Reich last year, the Jaguars’ Urban Meyer in 2021, the Browns’ Hue Jackson in 2018 and the Rams’ Jeff Fisher in 2016. The Buccaneers fired Lovie Smith at the end of Jameis Winston’s rookie campaign in 2015.
The two coaches since 2013 who survived were both in their own first seasons: the Bengals’ Zac Taylor in 2020 and the Cardinals’ Kliff Kingsbury in 2019.
Go back even farther, to 2010, and there’s only one head coach who coached beyond his No. 1 pick quarterback’s rookie year without being a rookie himself — the Rams’ Steve Spagnuolo.
There are extenuating circumstances — teams usually draft first because they have the worst record in the league, and veteran coaches typically pay the price for those continued failures.
When the Bears decided to bring back Eberflus for a third season in January — it was Poles’ decision, which McCaskey and president/CEO Kevin Warren supported — they were bucking league trends because they knew they’d be pairing a defense-first coach with a first-year quarterback.
“I think the team’s in decent shape, but I don’t think it takes any pressure off coach Eberflus,” said Sirius XM analyst Mark Dominik, the Buccaneers’ GM from 2009-13. “I think it’s gotta be a year where you see development from an offensive standpoint, where you see a team that starts to score consistently more frequently.
“It doesn’t have to be, ‘Hey you have to be 8-9 or 7-10 or better.’ I think it’s gotta be, ‘Hey, we gotta show that we can score points in a division that’s going to score a bunch of points.’”
Eberflus’ defensive acumen helped him rally the Bears — and save his job — in the second half of last season. But it will be the team’s offensive growth with Williams under center and new coordinator Shane Waldron calling plays that reveals whether or not the Bears are headed in the right direction.
“I think [Williams] has just got the most in his body, in terms of being able to do everything, to make every type of throw,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “There’s a physicality to him that I think is an underrated aspect. Just his toughness, to be able to pull through tackles, be able to absorb hits and be durable that way. I love that about him.
“The play-making stuff, the creativity — everybody’s seen all that stuff. I think that’s pretty rare, the things he can do there. But to me, all of the things you want to do in an offense, he can do. So I think he expands your playbook in a big way.”
So do Poles’ most recent additions. He traded for Allen and signed running back D’Andre Swift and tight end Gerald Everett last month to round out a skill position group that features receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet coming off their best seasons.
“A lot of safety valves for a young quarterback,” Dominik said.
Poles could add to it even further at No. 9 overall.
His roster cries out for a third receiver. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison is the best one in the draft; Dominik is intrigued by the possibility of the Bears, who hosted Harrison at Halas Hall earlier this month, trying to move up to take the second-generation standout. If the Bears stay put at No. 9, they might still be able to take a receiver — be it Harrison, LSU’s Malik Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze — or Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt.
Any of those four would help Williams be the best version of himself, which should be the goal. Williams becoming a star is the Bears’ fastest path to relevance.
“It feels like there’s maybe two teams a decade where they don’t have a premier quarterback, but they have a loaded roster, and everything goes perfect for them and they can go win a Super Bowl,” Jeremiah said. “The rest of those Super Bowls seem to be won by superstar quarterbacks.”
The Bears still need help rushing the quarterback, be at that on the edge or defensive tackle. Were the season to start today, either Dominique Robinson or Khalid Kareem, who have three sacks in 56 combined games, would be opposite defensive end Montez Sweat on obvious passing downs.
Alabama’s Dallas Turner, Florida State’s Jared Verse and UCLA’s Laiatu Latu top the edge rusher class and could fill the most obvious hole on the Bears’ two-deep roster.
Eberflus telegraphed an interest in defensive tackles — a position he often calls the engine of his scheme — last month. Texas’ Byron Murphy, a physical presence who became a starter just last season, is considered the best in the draft. Poles drafted tackles in Rounds 2 and 3 last year, though, and it’s fair to wonder if he’d be willing to commit another high pick to the position group.
“You look at who affects the quarterback the most, I would argue that the inside piece is something we should be looking at, and it’s important that we do that,” Eberflus said. “Direct line to the quarterback …
“We’re looking at all pass rushers. It can be inside, outside, all along the line. We’re having an open mind.”
Dominik considers the Bears’ defense physical but not fast. If it struggles, he said, that could carry over to Williams’ development.
“I worry about that,” he said. “In terms of, how much pressure is gonna be put on the offense to say, ‘We have to go score again because we just gave up another three points or a touchdown.’”
Either way, the pressure will be on.