Ohio State or Penn State? Buckeyes, Ryan Day desperately need a ‘W’ against Nittany Lions

There’s nothing like the pressure that envelopes college football coaches and teams on the final Saturday of November.

Wait, make that there used to be nothing like it.

Because we’re in the first regular season that’s leading to an expanded, 12-team playoff, and the new format has changed the weekly calculus tremendously. Missing the four-team playoff was bitterly disappointing for some teams, but rarely, if ever, was it regarded from the outside as a serious failure. But missing a 12-teamer if you’re, say, Ohio State? Beyond unacceptable. Colossal failure.

The biggest game on the first Saturday of November, No. 4 Ohio State (-3) at No. 3 Penn State (11 a.m., Fox 32), should be as exciting and fraught as anything we’ll see until conference championship weekend.

It’s already desperation time for the Buckeyes (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten), for whom a second loss would be as distressing as any of coach Ryan Day’s three straight defeats against mega-rival Michigan. If they lose to PSU (7-0, 4-0), their chances of getting to the league title game in Indianapolis will be essentially shot; instead, they’ll have to white-knuckle it the rest of the way with zero assurance the playoff committee will give them an at-large bid. Day comes into this one with a Big Ten record of 41-4 — the fourth “L” occurred two weeks ago at Oregon — but he’s one false move from having to answer nonstop questions about potentially being fired.

OSU didn’t blast $20 million into the NIL pit to miss college football’s postseason extravaganza. But win Saturday, and it’ll still be on the desired path.

“We have our goals every year, and one of them is to get to Indianapolis, and this is it,” Day said. “It’s on the line. We’ve got to go put it on the line. We’ve got to win. This is it right here.”

Day’s record against opponents ranked in the top five is a none-too-impressive 1-7, but he’s 5-0 against the Nittany Lions. No, he isn’t the only coach in this matchup who knows what it’s like to squirm in a chair at a packed postgame press conference. James Franklin is 1-9 — with seven straight losses — against the Buckeyes.

The last time the Nittany Lions won was in 2016, a 24-21 upset in Happy Valley that propelled them to the Big Ten title — their most recent one of those, too — and the Rose Bowl. That’s PSU’s lone victory in the series since a meeting in 2011 that came 10 days after Joe Paterno was fired.

Michigan is down. OSU is vulnerable. There is no East division anymore, but this still feels like the opportunity to pounce that PSU has been waiting for.

“We recognize this is a big game,” Franklin said. “We’re focused on finding a way to get a ‘W’ this week.”

It’s hard to find any real daylight between Day’s and Franklin’s teams. They’re defensive equals, each ranked in the top four nationally in yards allowed. The offenses are even closer together, separated by about 8 yards per game. OSU probably wouldn’t trade running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson for PSU’s Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but PSU wouldn’t consider making the swap, either. The Buckeyes have great receivers, as always, but the Nittany Lions have the best, most versatile tight end in the land in Tyler Warren.

Will quarterback play decide it? PSU starter Drew Allar missed the second half of last week’s win at Wisconsin with an apparent knee injury. If he’s limited — or if Beau Pribula gets the nod instead — it’ll be hard to go throw-for-throw with OSU’s Will Howard, who has 17 touchdown passes and ranks second in the nation in efficiency.

One sneaky factor: the early game time. The less oiled-up the home fans are, the better for the visitors. Buckeyes, 24-20.

OTHER WEEK 10 PICKS

All games are Saturday.

Northwestern (+1) at Purdue (11 a.m., BTN, 720-AM): The Wildcats (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten) have laid back-to-back eggs since their best performance of the season in a lopsided win at Maryland. The Boilermakers (1-6, 0-4) have held up their end of the bargain after I predicted before the season they’d go 0-9 in conference play. Only because I’m bound by law to make a pick: ’Cats, 19-17.

No. 1 Oregon (-14½) at Michigan (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): Can the Wolverines (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) open rushing lanes for Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards on offense? Can they limit Oregon’s yards after catch on defense? Doing both is the only way to stay in it against the Ducks (8-0, 5-0). A close one … for a while, but the Ducks pull away and win by 14.

My favorite favorite: No. 2 Georgia (-14½) vs. Florida (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): It’s one of the greatest neutral-field rivalry scenes in the sport, of course, but the games haven’t been that competitive since Kirby Smart took the reins at Georgia. His only loss to the Gators was during the 2020 pandemic season, and only one of his six wins came by fewer than 19 points. All Bulldogs.

My favorite underdog: No. 24 Illinois (+3) vs. Minnesota (11 a.m., FS1, 890-AM): The opening line was Illinois (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) by 2½ before early action swung things in favor of the Gophers (5-3, 3-2). But why? Was it because the Gophers have won three straight, most recently a 48-23 blowout of Maryland? Because the Illini got smacked around 38-9 at No. 1 Oregon? Because the Illini might be without their top receiver, Pat Bryant? Whatever the explanation, I’m having a hard time seeing past Bret Bielema’s 10-0 career record against Minnesota. Make it 11.

Last week: 6-1 straight-up, 3-4 against the spread. 

Season: 40-18, 28-29-1.