UCLA at No. 7 Penn State
When: 9 a.m. PT Saturday
Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa.
TV/radio: FOX (Ch. 11)/AM 570
Line: Penn State by 28½
What’s at stake? UCLA and Penn State have been trending in opposite directions since the beginning of the season. UCLA narrowly won its season opener and Penn State struggled in its second game, winning by one touchdown. But the Bruins have lost three straight by an average of 22 points and the Nittany Lions shut out Kent State in their third game and defeated 24th-ranked Illinois by two scores last week. The Bruins remain winless in the Big Ten Conference and are in need of the confidence boost a victory against a top-ranked opponent would provide.
Who’s better? Penn State’s offense has been effective in the air and on the ground. The Nittany Lions are averaging 36 points per game. The Bruins’ highest scoring output this year was 17 points against LSU. Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar has completed 70.9% of his passes and ranks fifth in the nation in efficiency rating (193.6). Penn State is averaging 251 rushing yards per game, ranked ninth in college football. The Bruins are on the opposite end, ranking at the bottom in rushing yards per game (131st) and third-down conversions per game (126th).
Matchup to watch: It’s yet to be seen who will be directing the offense on the field for UCLA. Starter Ethan Garbers got banged up in the loss to Oregon and was seen on an exercise bike at practice Monday through Wednesday. Redshirt sophomore Justyn Martin took first-team reps all week at practice and is in line to make his first career start. It won’t be easy against a Penn State defensive line that averages seven tackles for loss per game. The Nittany Lions are fourth in total defense, giving up just 226.5 yards a game. UCLA’s offensive line will have its hands full keeping Penn State’s pass rushers at bay.
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UCLA wins if: The Bruins limit penalties and force Penn State to attempt field goals instead of giving up touchdowns. In the loss to Oregon last week, UCLA was penalized nine times for 86 yards, putting the team in disadvantageous situations. Saturday’s game will be an uphill battle to begin with, so minimizing mistakes will be crucial. As far as special teams, the Nittany Lions struggle in the kicking game, having missed three of five field-goal attempts. UCLA’s defense has to hold steady in the red zone and force Penn State to go for three points.
Prediction: Penn State 31, UCLA 16. It’s been a challenging three-week stretch for the Bruins facing off against three nationally ranked teams in a row. The players and coaches have remained optimistic, continuing to learn from each of the previous games. If Martin ends up starting, he’ll be thrown into the deep end, but he could also provide a spark the team needs.