The 2028 presidential election may be over three years away, but for Governor Gavin Newsom, it may as well have already started.
Quite simply, Newsom’s political future almost certainly depends on how he manages the cleanup and recovery process following last month’s wildfires.
Put another way, what’s at stake for Newsom right now is not only his political legacy, but also any presidential ambitions he may have.
To be sure, the delicate balancing act between leading the anti-Trump “resistance” and working with the President in order to secure federal assistance has been well documented.
However, what has received less attention are the stakes facing both President Trump and Gavin Newsom, as they seek to rebuild California in the wake of the most expensive natural disaster in American history.
Of course, the stakes involved for both men are not identical, but they are very real.
For Trump, if he is seen as overly politicizing or hindering the rebuild, Republicans may suffer in 2026 and 2028, much as the GOP did following former President Bush’s mishandling of Hurricane Katrina.
And for Newsom, if he fails to effectively lead the recovery process or is seen as surrendering too much to Trump in exchange for federal assistance, he will not be a viable candidate in 2028.
It should go without saying that Newsom’s first priority should be leading the rebuild, not be his potential run for the White House. But, if he fails to effectively manage this process, he can effectively say goodbye to a run in three years.
Moreover, if Newsom is seen as surrendering too much to Trump and is thus unable to maintain his reputation as a Trump opponent, standing up for Californians while presenting a credible alternative, he surely will not make it out of a Democratic primary.
To his credit, Newsom seems to recognize the stakes he faces.
He signed executive orders which suspend California’s overbearing construction and zoning regulations, a quiet acknowledgment that Republican criticism was right all along. He has also taken a much softer tone with Trump and their two meetings have been relatively cordial.
In that same vein, the rebuilding process presents Newsom with an opportunity to show that he can rise above partisan squabbles – and his own personal disdain for Trump – for the good of Californians.
If he can prove to voters that he can deliver in a time of crisis, it will go an exceptionally long way in improving his national profile, and by extension, his 2028 candidacy.
If Newsom fails however, he will singlehandedly give credibility to the oft-repeated Republican attack that Democrats are unable to effectively manage the cities and states they control.
On a more personal level, failure to lead a competent rebuilding process will open Newsom up to attacks that he is unable to put politics aside and attempted to use a natural disaster to raise his own national profile.
And while those stakes facing Newsom are somewhat obvious, there are potential downfalls to appearing too friendly with the Trump administration.
Indeed, eventually Newsom will have to brandish his credentials as a viable Democratic candidate who is unafraid to take on a president many in his party loathe.
To that end, Newsom may be fighting an uphill battle.
Nearly 7-in-10 (68%) California Democrats think their party has not shown an ability to present an effective case against the Trump administration, according to Capitol Weekly polling.
The same poll revealed that when asked to describe the Democratic Party, the most common words used were “lost,” “ineffective,” and “weak.”
For Newsom to overcome this sentiment, he must present himself as a fighter, unafraid to take on Trump and defend Democratic policies.
On the other side, there are stakes involved for Trump as well, even if he does not have to face voters again.
As former President George Bush learned after Hurricane Katrina, the president – and his party – pay a political price for failing to rise to the occasion after natural disasters.
According to Pew Research, perceptions that Bush mismanaged the recovery contributed to the 9-point decline (50% to 41%) in his approval rating between the storm and the 2006 midterms, which also saw Democrats sweep both chambers of Congress in a historic landslide.
Given Republicans’ extremely slim margins in the current Congress, if Trump is seen as unfairly hindering Newsom’s efforts to rebuild, Democrats may recover some of their losses from 2024’s election.
Similarly, there is the very real chance that Trump’s GOP successor could be harmed by the belief that he politicized California’s rebuild.
This would be particularly acute if the Republican nominee in 2028 is Vice President J.D. Vance, who is inherently tied to the current administration.
Ultimately, while the stakes involved for Newsom are considerably higher, it would be a mistake to overlook what both men are facing.
And despite the fires being a local event, they have the potential for national implications. A failure to effectively lead – by either Trump or Newsom – may very well play a significant role in the upcoming midterms or the 2028 presidential election.
Douglas Schoen is a longrime Democratic political consultant.