Along with inflation, anger towards uncontrolled immigration was a significant factor in President Trump’s victory last November, and Trump promised to address the issue immediately after his inauguration.
And he did. On Trump’s first day back in office, the President signed a series of executive orders authorizing the arrest and deportation of illegal migrants, specifically those who commit crimes.
To be sure, this move is broadly supported. According to Associated Press polling, more than 8-in-10 (83%) Americans – including a majority of Democrats (53%) – support deporting immigrants who have been convicted of a crime.
And while this is a long overdue policy, mass deportations may have significant impacts on the United States generally, and California specifically.
Put another way, there should be little doubt that deporting violent migrants is the correct policy, one that hopefully causes a considerable improvement in public safety.
In Los Angeles alone, ICE officers recently round up multiple illegal aliens charged with offenses such as terrorism, homicide, drug trafficking, domestic violence, and more, according to Fox LA.
However, there is a marked difference between targeted deportations and the mass deportations Trump has promised.
If these deportations expand to include undocumented migrants who are otherwise living and working peacefully, or deporting those who came as children, the negative impacts will be severely magnified.
Perhaps the biggest impact of mass deportations would be felt economically, due to the sheer number of migrants living in the U.S., and the states and industries they are largely concentrated in.
As of 2022, there were roughly 11 million unauthorized migrants in the United States, with slightly more than 8 million of those employed, according to Pew Research. Both numbers are almost certainly higher now following the final two years of President Biden’s administration.
In any sense, Pew calculates that nearly one-half of all unauthorized migrants reside in just four states – California, New York, Texas, and Florida – where undocumented workers paid more than $18 billion of taxes combined in 2022, per Yale Budget Lab.
In California alone, migrants make up between 50% – 70% of farmworkers, and their deportation en masse could drastically upend our food supply, causing grocery prices to skyrocket.
This is already beginning. In Kern County, CA, undocumented farmworkers makeup roughly 60% of the workforce, but the fear of ICE raids has led to between one-fifth and 30% of them skipping work.
Experts estimate that prolonged or increased absences by farmhands in Kern, Central, and Salinas Counties alone could cost the state more than $500 million in lost revenue for the state’s economy, as well as the farmers who employ migrants.
Nationally, mass deportations targeting the 8.3 million undocumented workers – rather than just those convicted of crimes – could lead to a 6%-7% decrease in America’s GDP, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, with the greatest impacts felt in construction, manufacturing, and hospitality.
In the wake of the devastating fires which ravaged Los Angeles, these workers are critical to rebuilding the area.
Dan Gatsby, the founder of the Los Angeles Builders Association has already said that rebuilding the city would take “twice as long” if mass deportations were carried out.
Taken together, the labor shortages caused by mass deportations would send inflation surging, undermining both the American economy and Trump’s promises to lower prices.
It would also severely weaken the local economy, given California’s economic dependence on migrant labor.
There is another consequence of deportations: the Trump administration must work with foreign countries, including some American adversaries, to facilitate these operations, carrying geopolitical and humanitarian risks.
For example, Trump recently cut a deal with Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro, whereby he would accept Venezuelans, ostensibly in exchange for Venezuelan oil continuing to flow, keeping a lid on global prices.
That so many of these potential deportees fled Maduro and are likely to face retribution is a significant human rights concern, as is the fact that the United States does not even consider Maduro a legitimate president.
To that end, the humanitarian impacts of deportations must be moderated by ensuring that deportations are limited to those who pose a threat to Americans, not those whose safety is at risk if deported.
Doing so will also mitigate the economic impacts, as criminals do not contribute to the American economy.
To be clear, this is not to criticize the deportations of violent criminals or Trump’s extremely overdue steps to shut down the Southern border and restore some sense of order in our immigration process.
Rather, it is to stress the need for a comprehensive plan to update our immigration system, which has not been updated in 34 years according to the Brookings Institute.
We must reform a system that allowed so many criminals to enter the country, while at the same time, making it challenging for those who simply want a better life and to contribute to the American economy to become citizens.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.