By KEVIN HARDY, Stateline.org, TNS
OVERLAND PARK, Kan. — Before the election results began rolling in, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly took the stage, confident that Democrats could break the long-held Republican supermajority that has thwarted many of her legislative priorities.
“If we do that, you will not only make my life better, you will make the life of every Kansan better,” Kelly told supporters Tuesday.
But despite the governor’s optimism and the efforts of her $2 million political action committee, the GOP retained its veto-proof majority in both the state House and Senate after Democrats failed to flip key suburban seats.
Even before the outcome of the presidential race became clear, Kansas Democrats milling around a hotel ballroom were heard muttering “unbelievable” and “what a disaster” as legislative results trickled in.
Election results in Kansas were indicative of the national strength of Republicans, who not only won the White House in a historic election, but also strengthened their hold on state governments across the union.
Before the election, the GOP controlled 57 state legislative chambers, while Democrats controlled 41 (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan). Many legislative races were still too close to call Wednesday, so it’s unclear exactly how many chambers each party will control once results are final.
But Republicans defended or expanded their control in several state capitols — and won the nation’s only tightly contested gubernatorial race with the election of former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte as New Hampshire’s next governor.
“It was a very good night for Republicans, but we still have to see how it shakes out at the very granular level,” said Benjamin Melusky, an associate professor of political science at Old Dominion University in Virginia.
In some cases, early results show Republicans broke up Democratic trifectas, in which one party controls both legislative chambers and the governorship. Those flips could create less left-leaning policymaking as lawmakers are compelled to negotiate legislation across the aisle.
“Come January, we will look for every opportunity to work with our Republican colleagues in a bipartisan manner to put the people of Michigan first,” Michigan House Speaker Joe Tate, a Democrat, said in a statement after results showed his party will lose control of the lower chamber. “We will fulfill our duty as the voice of reason and do our best to make our mark on legislation that moves through the state legislature.”
Michigan Republicans’ capture of the state House ends a Democratic trifecta they achieved in 2022 and adds a check on the power of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
House Minority Leader Matt Hall said in a statement that his party’s victory showed Michiganders “want leaders who put them first, uphold the rule of law, and advocate for accountability at every level of government.”
Republicans also are poised to enjoy more influence in Minnesota, where preliminary results show they flipped three key state House districts — resulting in an even 67-67 split between Republicans and Democrats. Recounts are expected, but if the tie holds, it means Democrats will lose the 2022 trifecta they seized after flipping the state Senate and maintaining control of the House and governorship.
That trifecta allowed the legislature to approve bills guaranteeing the right to abortion, providing free meals for kids at school, restoring voting rights to formerly incarcerated people with felony convictions, and making the state a “trans refuge” for children seeking gender-affirming care. Those were all signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz, Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in the presidential election.
Supermajorities
Vermont Democrats lost their state House supermajority after Republicans picked up 18 seats in the 150-member chamber.
In South Carolina, Republicans ousted four Democrats in the state Senate, giving them a supermajority in that chamber for the first time since Reconstruction, the South Carolina Daily Gazette reported.
The GOP also successfully defended such veto-proof majorities in several states, which could portend even more conservative policymaking.
In Idaho, Republicans were poised to pick up four legislative seats based on unofficial results, adding to the GOP’s already robust supermajority.
Tennessee Democrats lost all four of the state House races they had targeted in hopes of chipping away at the Republican supermajority in Nashville.
And in Kentucky, Republicans’ partisan advantage remained unchanged in both chambers despite predictions by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear that his party would “pick up seats” this cycle.
In Kansas, Democrats had hoped dismantling the two-thirds GOP supermajority could give the governor more influence over budget and tax policy and diminish the legislature’s ability to implement new abortion restrictions. This year, the legislature overrode Kelly’s veto of bills requiring hospitals and medical providers to report patients’ reasons for abortions to the state and creating a new “crime of coercion to obtain an abortion” in state law.
On Tuesday, Attorney General Kris Kobach said his fellow Republicans should leverage their partisan advantage to change the state constitution’s process of nominating people to the Kansas Supreme Court. Currently, justices are selected through a merit-based nomination process, but Kobach wants to move to a system of gubernatorial appointments with state Senate veto power.
“Kansans rejected the liberal agenda and expanded Republican super majorities,” Kobach posted on social media platform X. “Now it’s time to reform how we select our justices.”
A few Democratic gains
Still, this election saw a relatively low number of total flips in party control of legislative chambers, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. And Democrats did make some gains on Tuesday.
In North Carolina, Democrats appear to have broken up the Republican legislature’s veto-proof majority that has stymied Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. If early results hold, the change would enhance the policy influence of Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein when the legislature convenes next year.
“For too long, the supermajority has operated without checks, pursuing extreme agendas that left too many North Carolinians behind,” state Rep. Robert Reives, a Democrat and the House minority leader, said in a statement Tuesday.
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Similarly, Wisconsin Democrats won several key state Senate races, breaking the Republican supermajority and laying the groundwork for Democrats to compete for a majority in 2026. The change stemmed largely from new legislative maps adopted this year after the state Supreme Court ruled the old maps unconstitutional. Early results show Wisconsin House Republicans holding their majority, with many incumbents defeating their challengers.
Before the election, only one state — Pennsylvania — had a split legislature, with Democrats controlling the state House and Republicans controlling the state Senate.
Democrats went into the Pennsylvania election with a one-seat House majority, while Republicans controlled the Senate 28-22. The split chambers stalled efforts such as Republican plans to pass more voter ID requirements and restrict abortion and Democratic plans to increase the minimum wage and strengthen civil rights for LGBTQ+ people.
Redistricting in Pennsylvania left both parties with fewer competitive seats, intensifying the race in just a few battlegrounds. While Republicans swept races for attorney general, treasurer and auditor and held their state Senate majority, state House races were still too close to call late Wednesday.
Similarly, dozens of Maine legislative races had not yet been called on Wednesday. But Democrats were in danger of losing their trifecta there.
In Arizona, Democrats spent record amounts of money trying to flip control of the legislature. But preliminary results showed Democrats were poised to split the 30-member state Senate with Republicans, while the GOP maintained a slim majority in the state House.
©2024 States Newsroom. Visit at stateline.org. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.