A poll released by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) on state wide ballot measures has clues to where voters in Los Angeles County may swing on two big county decisions: the race for district attorney and the sales tax increase to combat homelessness.
Of the ten statewide ballot propositions in November, the strongest support showed up for Proposition 36, the measure to amend Proposition 47 of ten years ago and toughen response to crime. Prop 47 was a justice reform measure that titled toward leniency for criminal and drug use activity. Proposition 36 proposes to increase penalties for certain theft and drug crimes and add some felony charges; all tougher sentencing in response to citizens’ perception that crime has increased.
Statewide support for Prop 36 in the PPIC poll was 71% in favor, 26% opposed. Ironically, likely voters in Los Angeles County recorded the same 71%-26% margin on Prop 36.
Response to crime and punishment issues is the main crux of the differences between incumbent L.A. District Attorney George Gascón and challenger Nathan Hochman. Riding the same progressive wave to reduce incarceration and bring about justice reforms that propelled the passage of Proposition 47, Gascón, a Prop 47 proponent, rode to victory over L.A. DA Jackie Lacey in 2020.
Four years of growing fear about highly publicized crash and grab retail crime, home burglaries, and the simple daily reminder of goods protected under lock and key in many retail establishments to prevent theft, has changed the attitude of many voters. As the PPIC poll indicates, there is a building statewide backlash to past “reforms” on the price paid for crimes. The same backlash is occurring in Los Angeles County, which likely will influence the district attorney race’s outcome.
Gascón will have to defend his management of the district attorney’s office on crime and punishment as Hochman will hammer on the idea that Gascón’s philosophy has endangered the public. Judging by the PPIC poll numbers in Los Angeles County, Hochman has a distinct advantage.
Another finding in the PPIC poll could indicate voter attitudes when it comes to Los Angeles County’s Measure A to raise the sales tax.
The statewide poll found that 94% of the respondents believe that people in state government waste a lot or some taxpayer money. Los Angeles region voters also recorded 94% on the question of tax money waste. While the question doesn’t deal directly with local government it is not hard to believe, as in the case with the statewide and LA County voters’ opinion on Proposition 36, that voters in Los Angeles have similar feelings about local government.
So how will that play out with Measure A?
The measure would increase county sales tax from one-quarter cent to half-a-cent to fund homelessness prevention and pay for affordable housing. The current tax passed by voters seven years ago for the same purposes has raised hundreds of millions of dollars. Yet, the problem of homelessness has not been solved and many believe the situation is worse.
A key difference in the quarter-cent tax is that it is scheduled to shut down in three years. However, if voters replace it with the half-cent tax in measure A there is no end date.
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Given that fact, revisit the poll question in which voters believe government (on a statewide basis) waste money. If voters have been watching the lack of distinct progress in Los Angeles on homelessness with the last sales tax increase—and they have doubts on how well their tax money is used—will they likely mark the No box next to the Measure A tax increase?
Ballots arrive soon and voters will begin making their choices. Campaigns will influence those choices, and financially, the Yes side on Measure A will have many more resources than the opposition.
But, based on reactions from voters in the current PPIC poll, telltale signs exist on how some of the major elections in Los Angeles County might turn out.
Joel Fox is an adjunct professor at the School of Public Policy at Pepperdine University. He served as president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association from 1986 through 1998.