Conventional wisdom has it that a recall of beleaguered and battered Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass will be difficult to achieve despite her present difficulties. The questions remain could it happen and is it a wise use of this political tool for those who want to see Bass removed from office?
The trouble of pulling off a successful recall comes in two stages. First, enough signatures must be gathered to qualify the recall for the ballot in a relatively short time. Then a campaign must be run in which the incumbent mayor has certain political advantages.
Qualifying a recall for the ballot in the city of Los Angeles requires signatures from 15% of the city’s registered voters. That total is over 330,000 signatures and the signatures must be gathered within 120 days from when the recall statement was filed. However, in all efforts to qualify measures for a ballot, signature gatherers need to capture more than the required number to make sure they have enough valid signatures.
So, a recall of the mayor would need something around 400,000 signatures, or more than 3000 a day.
That’s a tall order but not impossible, especially if enough money is put into the signature gathering effort. News that the recall is backed by Nicole Shanahan, a Silicon Valley lawyer, former vice-presidential candidate to Robert F. Kennedy’s aborted presidential campaign, and importantly, a billionaire, the necessary funds might be available.
In California’s most famous recall effort, which removed Governor Gray Davis from office, the recall signature gathering took off after a large donation came from congressman and entrepreneur Darrell Issa who had his own designs on the governor’s office. (Full disclosure: I served as a senior policy advisor to Arnold Schwarzenegger, eventual winner in the governor’s replacement election, during the 2003 recall campaign.)
If the financial resources are there and hot anger remains against Mayor Bass that could juice the signature gathering. Bass’ foreign trip as the fires broke out were the first mark against her when warnings were prevalent that the fire threat was serious. Following her return to Los Angeles, Bass has been subject to negative stories dealing with the adequate funding for the fire department, the removal of the fire chief, bad publicity over the hiring of a recovery czar for a cool half-million dollars in non-public funds, and tensions with LA County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, who represents fire-torn Pacific Palisades.
Polling shows voters angered with Bass’s actions related to the fires are also doubting her ability to lead recovery. With enough money and continuing disapproval of the mayor, the recall just might qualify. Then comes the campaign.
One advantage the mayor holds is that the date of a recall election is in the hands of the city council which remains allied with the mayor as witnessed by the fire chief’s unsuccessful effort to regain her job by appealing to the council.
The recall petition qualifying time and additional procedural hurdles probably brings the successful qualification timeline to mid-summer. According to the city charter, the council then has between 88 and 120 days to set the election date. Drawing it out to the full extent of the required period could put the election sometime in early November or even later.
The timing of an election is an important factor. Unlike the Gray Davis recall which occurred in the first year of his four-year term, the Bass recall would be on the ballot about six months before the scheduled mayoral election on June 2, 2026.
Will voters be willing to put up with the expense of a recall election when they can have their say on Bass in a matter of months?
Despite the timing problem, those supporting the recall may see a political advantage of draining the mayor’s campaign funds prior to June. If she prevails in the recall Bass would have to quickly re-build her war chest, and she would certainly be bruised in the political battle.
However, that recall strategy could backfire if Bass is successful in fending off the recall. Her advocates are already arguing that recall supporters are Republicans who will be rejected in this heavily Democratic city. Then Bass can claim that the voters had their say about her mayorship and they are satisfied to keep her in office. Such a result could strengthen her hand in June. That scenario worked for Gov. Gavin Newsom in defeating a recall vote a year prior to his re-election.
A lot of pieces will move across the political chess board in a recall effort, including the possibility of a dominant figure jumping into the replacement race if the recall qualifies. For those determined to remove the mayor, a wiser plan might be to focus on the coming regularly scheduled mayoral election.
Joel Fox is a senior fellow at Pepperdine University’s Graduate School of Public Policy