No. 5 Notre Dame at USC
When: Saturday, 12:30
Where: Coliseum
TV/radio: CBS/710 AM
Line: Notre Dame by 7.5 points
Records: USC 6-5 (4-5 Big Ten), Notre Dame 10-1,
Notable injuries
USC: QUESTIONABLE: DE Solomon Tuliaupupu (undisclosed)
Notre Dame: QUESTIONABLE: DL Howard Cross III (sprained left ankle); DOUBTFUL: DT Jason Onye (personal); OUT: LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (sprained right knee), CB Benjamin Morrison (hip), DE Boubacar Traore (torn left ACL)
What’s at stake? Honestly, plenty more for Notre Dame than for USC, a scary proposition walking into a game against one of the best programs in collegiate football. The jeweled shillelagh, in this particular matchup, is secondary: the Fighting Irish are currently one of eight one-loss teams ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings, and a loss to 6-5 USC could mean a slide out of the expanded 12-team bracket altogether. These Trojans already locked up a bowl-game berth with a grueling win over UCLA last weekend; they’ll be looking to play spoiler against a timeless non-conference rival in the 95th matchup of one of the great rivalries in college football.
Who’s better? Notre Dame. Handily, in both execution and in talent. The Fighting Irish’s only stumble this year came in Week Two against unranked, Mid-American Conference opponent Northern Illinois. That shocking loss has fueled a firestorm since, with a late-September win over then-15th-ranked Louisville and 40-plus-point-drubbings of both Army and Navy.
Up and down the roster, on paper, there isn’t a massive hole in any area of Notre Dame’s makeup. Quarterback Riley Leonard hasn’t tested defenses extensively through the air, but the 6-foot-4 QB is a dangerous runner who helps fuel a rushing game that ranks third in the nation in yards-per-carry. The Fighting Irish’s offensive line, USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn said this week, is “probably going to be the best offensive line we’ve played all year.” Near impossibly, none of Notre Dame’s top-16 most-snapped defensive players have allowed over a 60% catch rate on targets going their way. Add it all up, and Notre Dame has one of the best run games and overall defenses in the country, a combination that could be lethal for USC.
Matchup to watch: USC QB Jayden Maiava against … um, Notre Dame’s defense? Wait. Scratch that. USC QB Jayden Maiava against himself.
After Maiava’s first start as QB1 against Nebraska, head coach Lincoln Riley said he liked that the dual-threat UNLV transfer was decisive and “aggressive.” Aggressiveness, however, led to two costly turnovers; Maiava didn’t cough up the ball against UCLA in the following start, but he took a massive fourth-quarter sack that could have killed the Trojans’ hopes right then and there. Notre Dame enters Saturday’s matchup standing first in the nation in turnovers forced – if Maiava tries to make too much happen at the Coliseum, it’ll cost USC dearly.
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USC wins if: Well, let’s examine Notre Dame’s only loss of the season. Leonard and the Fighting Irish faltered, against Northern Illinois, when he lingered more in the pocket (with his second-most pass attempts of the season) and threw two picks. At the same time, he ran for just 16 yards on 11 carries. Nobody has quite managed to hold him back since, a testament to the hole-patching head coach Marcus Freeman has done, but the formula is clear for USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn: keep Leonard in the pocket effectively, stuff designed runs, and make him a thrower.
USC still might not win, even in the best-case scenario where that happens. But it’s a start.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, USC 17. Maybe USC will shock the world. But there’s plenty for Notre Dame at risk here.