No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan
When: 12:30 p.m. PT Saturday
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.
TV/radio: CBS Ch. 2/710 AM
Records: USC 2-0 (0-0 Big Ten), Michigan 2-1 (0-0 Big Ten)
Line: USC by 5.5
Notable injuries
USC: PROBABLE: LB Mason Cobb (undisclosed), LB Eric Gentry (undisclosed), CB Jaylin Smith (undisclosed)
Michigan: QUESTIONABLE: TE Colston Loveland (undisclosed), DB Jaden Mangham (undisclosed), WR Tyler Morris (undisclosed); OUT: DB Rod Moore (torn ACL, season)
What’s at stake? For USC, there may not be a more important game on the regular-season schedule. Suddenly, if the Trojans can waltz across the country into the Big House and shut down the defending national champions en route to a 3-0 start, their schedule provides a direct pathway to an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff – and introduces whispers of a national championship. USC would return home to face Wisconsin (2-1), who just lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury, and would be heavily favored in a subsequent matchup against Minnesota. The remaining current top 25 opponents on USC’s schedule are No. 10 Penn State (2-0), No. 22 Nebraska (3-0) and No. 17 Notre Dame (2-1).
With Michigan’s rough offensive start under new head coach Sherrone Moore, too, the matchup’s perception has completely flipped in the last couple weeks, with USC suddenly the odds-on favorites. That’s a dangerous prospect for the Trojans, though, and they know it, emphasizing for weeks they aren’t taking the Wolverines lightly.
“They are the defending national champions, like – you gotta go in there with that type of respect,” USC defensive end Jamil Muhammad said Wednesday.
Who’s better? Entering Week 1, this answer would’ve been Michigan. And the Wolverines have still fielded an elite defense, with the core of a top-ranked 2023 unit returning in defensive tackle Mason Graham, cornerback Will Johnson and dynamic edge Josaiah Stewart. But Michigan’s offense has endured a mighty public struggle through three weeks, necessitating a quarterback change from Loyola High product Davis Warren to the intriguing run-first Alex Orji.
The Wolverines’ ground game is still solid, with senior Kalel Mullings in the midst of a 7.5 yards-per-carry-breakout, and will be relied upon heavily Saturday. But Michigan wields nowhere near the bevy of offensive weapons the Trojans present, and USC’s Miller Moss has already proven himself as one of the better quarterbacks across college football. There’s a reason USC enters as the favorite.
Matchup to watch: USC’s secondary vs. Michigan’s tight ends. The obvious answer here is the lines of scrimmage, where a young USC offensive line will have to contend with Graham and a mean Big Ten front. But a deeper key: The Wolverines have, thus far, mined an overwhelmingly large percentage of their passing attack through the tight end position, particularly top NFL prospect Colston Loveland.
Loveland is questionable with injury, though, putting the onus on backup Marlin Klein – who had a strong showing last week against Arkansas State – to step up. If Loveland is out and USC’s secondary can shadow Klein, it’ll turn an already-crippled Michigan attack completely one-dimensional.
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USC wins if: The offense commits a maximum of one turnover … the defense can hold Orji to sub-five yards a carry … if USC’s offensive line can limit Michigan’s defensive line to a handful of pressures against Moss and set up time for an expanded Trojans passing game.
Prediction: USC 24, Michigan 20. It’ll be a close game, and could swing either way in a road contest, but it’s easy to see Moss leading crucial fourth-quarter drives similar to USC’s Week 1 win over LSU.