A strong atmospheric river event is expected to impact Northern California this weekend with heavy rainfall and potential flooding, while Southern California is forecast to get much less rain.
Estimated total rain amounts in the region remain uncertain this early in the week, with rainfall expected to begin by Saturday morning or afternoon in the Los Angeles County area. Predictions range from a 40 percent chance of half an inch to an equal chance of one or two inches in coastal areas, including downtown Los Angeles, National Weather Service meteorologist Bryan Lewis said.
“There is an outside chance of even more than two inches,” Lewis added.
Mountain and foothill areas, including the Los Angeles Mountains, San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys, could see slightly more rain due to the terrain. Those areas could see a 40 percent chance of two to four inches of rain, or only an inch or two.
While the extent of the rain remains unclear, Lewis is confident it “will rain at least a little” and predicts periods of rain from Saturday through the beginning of next week. The strong atmospheric river began in the Northwest and will sweep down the coastline as the week goes on, meteorologist Kyle Wheeler added.
“We’re going to get what’s left of it by this weekend,” he said.
Wheeler also said that there remains a lot of uncertainty around the timing and intensity of this rainfall event, with at least a 50 percent chance of rain projected this weekend. About a quarter to half an inch of rain is estimated in Orange County so far, with one to two tenths of an inch of rain in the Inland Empire.
Since the rain is coming from a southwest direction, some parts of the San Bernardino County Mountains could see relatively large parts of rain, more than the rest of the area would likely see, Wheeler said. He was not comfortable providing exact numbers this early in the week.
This weekend’s rainfall is also not expected to cause problems in burn areas or reach the threshold for warnings, San Bernardino County Fire Capt. Eric Sherwin said.
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